Tornado Girl Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Looks like we will have some very strong winds in here for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 From my perspective, considering Ottawa doesn't generally get LES, this upcoming snow and cold event is looking to be a bust and something that was over hyped by accuweather. I mean, one met on that site (not JB) was even saying that the cold could rival some of the mid winter shots we've had!? In reality, the temperatures aren't looking all that cold for this weekend, maybe 2-3 celcius below normal, if that. The cold that was being predicted by the GFS only a few days ago is no longer looking all that impressive, and there's even a warm up forecasted. This is looking increasingly like the 1998/99, 1999/2000 La Nina winters when the cold just couldn't be sustained, except for a few weeks in both winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It's a great rescue squad; my St. Bernard's have brandy Jameson's and hot chocolate barrels around their neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 From my perspective, considering Ottawa doesn't generally get LES, this upcoming snow and cold event is looking to be a bust and something that was over hyped by accuweather. I mean, one met on that site (not JB) was even saying that the cold could rival some of the mid winter shots we've had!? In reality, the temperatures aren't looking all that cold for this weekend, maybe 2-3 celcius below normal, if that. The cold that was being predicted by the GFS only a few days ago is no longer looking all that impressive, and there's even a warm up forecasted. This is looking increasingly like the 1998/99, 1999/2000 La Nina winters when the cold just couldn't be sustained, except for a few weeks in both winters. I agree with you. This would tend to be a "typical" La Nina pattern IMO. Cold shots could feature some very low temperatures but be relatively short-lived. (Wx adage: The harsher the blast the shorter it will last). As for GFS and its prediction of cold, cold shots, etc. The model DOES have an inherent cold bias. And my personal experience and observations also indicate that it does tend to overforecast the initial 2 or 3 cold shots of the late fall early winter season, especially when there is little if any snowpack. Ensembles and ensemble mos actually fair better during these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I agree with you. This would tend to be a "typical" La Nina pattern IMO. Cold shots could feature some very low temperatures but be relatively short-lived. (Wx adage: The harsher the blast the shorter it will last). As for GFS and its prediction of cold, cold shots, etc. The model DOES have an inherent cold bias. And my personal experience and observations also indicate that it does tend to overforecast the initial 2 or 3 cold shots of the late fall early winter season, especially when there is little if any snowpack. Ensembles and ensemble mos actually fair better during these situations. Andy, the GFS no longer has a significant cold bias. This was corrected in the upgrade this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noah John Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just a suggestion why don't we start a new thread on the LES potential/thoughts/forecast. And keep this thread or even start another on the synoptic event leading up to the LES? Amen. How about a thread just for the LE stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Amen. How about a thread just for the LE stuff. I started a thread about this weekend's event yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Andy, the GFS no longer has a significant cold bias. This was corrected in the upgrade this summer. Thanks, Nick! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Thanks, Nick! :-) I mean if you want to look at 850s at Day 10...it's still somewhat there....but it's not nearly as significant as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I mean if you want to look at 850s at Day 10...it's still somewhat there....but it's not nearly as significant as before. I also am aware that its (GFS') pressure verification has been quite competitive with the EC's circa days 5-6, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I also am aware that its (GFS') pressure verification has been quite competitive with the EC's circa days 5-6, too In the summer, I noticed the GFS was competitive with the ECMWF and UKMET...occasionally beating them in verification stats. However, it seems that the change of seasons has brought back the dominance of the ECMWF/UKMET products. GFS has been consistently third between those two lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noah John Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I started a thread about this weekend's event yesterday. My bad. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I agree with you. This would tend to be a "typical" La Nina pattern IMO. Cold shots could feature some very low temperatures but be relatively short-lived. (Wx adage: The harsher the blast the shorter it will last). As for GFS and its prediction of cold, cold shots, etc. The model DOES have an inherent cold bias. And my personal experience and observations also indicate that it does tend to overforecast the initial 2 or 3 cold shots of the late fall early winter season, especially when there is little if any snowpack. Ensembles and ensemble mos actually fair better during these situations. How was 1970-71 able to be so cold, despite being a La Nina year? I was thinking earlier that if, as JB opines, this upcoming four week period turns out to be the coldest of the winter relative to averages, we may be in trouble! Still, a glance at previous La Nina winters in Ottawa (1970-71 excepted) does reveal wildly swinging temperatures, 1973-74 and 1974-75 being good examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wow! Home sick today (with my daughter) and just had a couple BIG, DEEP Booms! Moving in as we speak....nice little surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The upcoming pattern that did have a lot of potential now looks like crap. If I was a fan of lake cutters the next couple of weeks would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I may have to goto the Tug now,get lost,then rescued,just for the Jamesen's.I never found liquor appealing at all.I LOVE Jamesen's ,I just opened a new bottle Friday night,and it is still full.I will get some Ginger ale and a bag of ice----I may need help drinking it if anyone cares to indulge themselves.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The shift in the models has been frustrating. I guess from what people were saying, DT called it. He said that the cold air in the east was being overdone and the real cold won't be here until after 12/2 or 12/3. It's tough watching the west get dumped on. I think we're all itchin for some snow! The upcoming pattern that did have a lot of potential now looks like crap. If I was a fan of lake cutters the next couple of weeks would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The shift in the models has been frustrating. I guess from what people were saying, DT called it. He said that the cold air in the east was being overdone and the real cold won't be here until after 12/2 or 12/3. It's tough watching the west get dumped on. I think we're all itchin for some snow! I love his site, I learned a lot with his audio link with the graphs and maps etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Absolutely....his weekly audio with map discussions. They guys a little loco, but hey....who isn't I love his site, I learned a lot with his audio link with the graphs and maps etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Was all this rain really forecast today? I'm still sitting at 49° and have gotten over 1/2" of rain so far. Seems as though the warm front is hung up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Absolutely....his weekly audio with map discussions. They guys a little loco, but hey....who isn't That's why I like it even more, it's not politically correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Was all this rain really forecast today? I'm still sitting at 49° and have gotten over 1/2" of rain so far. Seems as though the warm front is hung up? For the most part yes....The rain will pull out of here later tonight. A cold front will be moving through tomorrow so there will be more showers in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The shift in the models has been frustrating. I guess from what people were saying, DT called it. He said that the cold air in the east was being overdone and the real cold won't be here until after 12/2 or 12/3. It's tough watching the west get dumped on. I think we're all itchin for some snow! No kidding. Here's hoping that some real cold does materialize around the first couple of weeks in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It is simply amazing to behold how much the models have changed. I just looked at the 6z GFS and it shows this week's event being pretty much a dud in all respects, even with regard to lake effect. What a dissapointment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Im not surprised! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It is simply amazing to behold how much the models have changed. I just looked at the 6z GFS and it shows this week's event being pretty much a dud in all respects, even with regard to lake effect. What a dissapointment! The current pattern of lake cutters looks like it is going to be persistant. Of course the GFS always throws a costal in at the end of the run. Maybe we can hope for another pattern change in mid-december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Man. another 1.10" of rain in the past day. My yard is nothing but a muddy mess. With it would get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It's too early to judge the upcoming winter, but the signs so far are very negative. La Nina in all it's negative aspects seems to be governing things. Everything wants t drop into the west and we get the scraps. Every modeled trough with good potential on the gfs falls to pieces inside 7 days. We'll get lucky a few times this winter because even in the horrible 05-06 winter I got 62 inches. Man. another 1.10" of rain in the past day. My yard is nothing but a muddy mess. With it would get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It's too early to judge the upcoming winter, but the signs so far are very negative. La Nina in all it's negative aspects seems to be governing things. Everything wants t drop into the west and we get the scraps. Every modeled trough with good potential on the gfs falls to pieces inside 7 days. We'll get lucky a few times this winter because even in the horrible 05-06 winter I got 62 inches. well last year was pretty horrible for the north country....hope we can do better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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