adk Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z GFS makes the all important Black Friday shortwave less progressive...perhaps catching onto the ridiculous high latitude blocking that is being modeled. This keeps Buffalo and the southtowns in the game for potential heavy LES. Well that is true. I suppose I should clarify that my distaste for the 12z gfs is coming from a perspective of somebody who'd like to enjoy whiteface's opening day on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well that is true. I suppose I should clarify that my distaste for the 12z gfs is coming from a perspective of somebody who'd like to enjoy whiteface's opening day on friday. It's cool...I figured by your post you weren't in a LES area...my post was directed towards that particular threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 NAM and GFS hint at a little "pre game" LES event Wednesday, with the passage of an initial s/w which provides a pretty decent, short-lived pocket of instability....but airmass is pretty dry...maybe a few inches for the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 That's a beauty of a pattern in the extended for cold and LES...everyone gets into the action at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z gfs presents a classic junk fest. Friday afternoon warm front precip, turning to rain/ice mix then blast cold front through. Yay. No measurable secondary development. Kinda don't believe it. Going to be a long winter if we get a continual pattern of two days of way below average cold with warm storms. have to agree. The models seem to be on crack. I mean if the 12z GFS were to verify, both Toronto and Ottawa would get mainly rain on Thursday followed by a flash freeze! Then it has a storm around December 4 bringing rain to Toronto and mixed precip to Ottawa. I'm kind of hoping the driving conditions on the 401 corridor between Toronto and Ottawa will be okay Friday evening given i have visitors driving up; I was kind of hoping that any storm or synoptic precipitation would come Thursday into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 have to agree. The models seem to be on crack. I mean if the 12z GFS were to verify, both Toronto and Ottawa would get mainly rain on Thursday followed by a flash freeze! Then it has a storm around December 4 bringing rain to Toronto and mixed precip to Ottawa. I'm kind of hoping the driving conditions on the 401 corridor between Toronto and Ottawa will be okay Friday evening given i have visitors driving up; I was kind of hoping that any storm or synoptic precipitation would come Thursday into Friday morning. Come on now...this is the first real sign of winter. Such a pattern has not yet established itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z GFS makes the all important Black Friday shortwave less progressive...perhaps catching onto the ridiculous high latitude blocking that is being modeled. This keeps Buffalo and the southtowns in the game for potential heavy LES. don't get me excited men Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 don't get me excited men 12z UKMET trended towards the less progressive scenario too...thought it continues to be more progressive than the GFS. The best cold air and instability still doesn't arrive until the winds veer west to west-northwest...putting the heavy snows in ski country. It looks better than the previous run, however. We've seen this happen before...the global models don't have a good handle on the lake-aggregate trough which should be impressive given the instability and the lake temperatures. The lake aggregate tends to put lower pressure in the upper Great Lakes...causing the winds to have more of a southerly component (or less of a northerly component) than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 So now it sounds like I should be looking at Buffalo and "south towns", whatever that is? :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 So now it sounds like I should be looking at Buffalo and "south towns", whatever that is? :arrowhead: local jargon southtowns refer to the populated suburbs south of Buffalo (West Seneca, Orchard Park, Hamburg etc.) Ski country refers to the areas further south...like southern Erie, Cattaraugus, and Chautauqua Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 local jargon southtowns refer to the populated suburbs south of Buffalo (West Seneca, Orchard Park, Hamburg etc.) Ski country refers to the areas further south...like southern Erie, Cattaraugus, and Chautauqua Counties. Ok. That seems to be the focus now, I guess. Potential amounts over 20"? that's my trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Ok. That seems to be the focus now, I guess. Potential amounts over 20"? that's my trigger Canadian would indicate the start of someone getting that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Ok. That seems to be the focus now, I guess. Potential amounts over 20"? that's my trigger I would say so...it's too early to say exactly where imo. As usual, the best shot to see those amounts would be in the Tug Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Canadian would indicate the start of someone getting that: I just got the new Euro coming in right now...just like the other models....slower and less progressive. Friday at 12z...850s of -13C with a 250 wind up Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The midlevel temps on the Euro aren't super impressive. 700s of -16c to -19c...just borderline dry adiabatic. Not quite extreme...but still good enough to get very nice bands off of Lake Erie and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I just got the new Euro coming in right now...just like the other models....slower and less progressive. Friday at 12z...850s of -13C with a 250 wind up Lake Erie. I got my rental until Friday...I'll be in Hagerstown at my sister's for Thanksgiving. I'm going to wait until Wednesday or so to extend. If things look good, I'm leaving Hagerstown Thursday night for the lakes! Alone, or with Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I would say so...it's too early to say exactly where imo. As usual, the best shot to see those amounts would be in the Tug Hill. Buffalo southtowns and ski country are right up there this time of year, wrt the Tug....they lose the advantage as Erie cools faster and starts to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm scared of the tug, lol. I might get trapped back there and I'm not sure of the cell service there. I have tethering through my phone (Tmobile) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 just trying to get people excited lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 NAM and GFS hint at a little "pre game" LES event Wednesday, with the passage of an initial s/w which provides a pretty decent, short-lived pocket of instability....but airmass is pretty dry...maybe a few inches for the Tug. don't get me excited men 12z UKMET trended towards the less progressive scenario too...thought it continues to be more progressive than the GFS. The best cold air and instability still doesn't arrive until the winds veer west to west-northwest...putting the heavy snows in ski country. It looks better than the previous run, however. We've seen this happen before...the global models don't have a good handle on the lake-aggregate trough which should be impressive given the instability and the lake temperatures. The lake aggregate tends to put lower pressure in the upper Great Lakes...causing the winds to have more of a southerly component (or less of a northerly component) than modeled. Ok. That seems to be the focus now, I guess. Potential amounts over 20"? that's my trigger Canadian would indicate the start of someone getting that: Just a suggestion why don't we start a new thread on the LES potential/thoughts/forecast. And keep this thread or even start another on the synoptic event leading up to the LES? I'm scared of the tug, lol. I might get trapped back there and I'm not sure of the cell service there. I have tethering through my phone (Tmobile) They use "Italian" telephones on the Tug...numerous roadside emergency assistance phones. Then there is Tornado Girl and her St. Bernard rescue squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 TG's response is a great one, wrt to heavy snows...and demonstrates that our area (E and SE of L. Ontario) indeed surpass 30" snows fairly often. However, in all cases, you'd probably not experience 10-12" of liquid with those events, and even getting to 5-8" of melted precip. would take many days to achieve, whereas if one experienced a very slow moving complex of thunderstorms during the summer, amounts as such could be achieved in several hours. This is a result of the amount of "precipitable water" a column of air can hold, respective of temperature. With temps in the 80's at the surface and a tropical airmass in place at all levels, the precipitable water amounts can easily be tenfold higher than a true polar or acrtic airmass profile that is "moist", thus the atmosphere is quite limited in it's ability to produce "precip." during the winter months, when it's cold...Luckily, the great lakes allow us to "keep up" with the warmer months, allowing for only a modest decrease in monthly precip amounts during the winter (along with our "normal" winter warm-up breaks) If we didn't have the great lakes, we'd be very much more arid during the winter months....and if the Atlantic ocean and GOM weren't in such proximity, we'd have even a larger seasonal variation in our monthly precip amounts, with little to nothing often times during the cold months. Very true.... I wanted to add a little more to about what causes very heavy rain. Heavy rainfall is a combination of several things. The first thing is the amount of Precipitable water LEK talked about... However, there are a few other things that effect how hard it will rain; two of these are the amount of moisture advection and convergence, moisture advection is the transport of atmospheric water vapor by the wind. As for convergence, textbooks will tell you convergence is wind movement that results in a horizontal net inflow of air into a particular region. what this means is when the winds converge in a small area, the force of the winds against each other forces the air in the center upwards..This is what we call updraft...convergence can be started by topography or solar heating or a combination of the two. However, a convergence zone can also form when air masses are forced into each other. If the presence of convergence and moisture advection is high enough; it can cause the storm to produce rainfall totals higher than the actual precipitable water value by itself would allow. The speed that a storm is moving is also a factor in how much rain will fall over a certain area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 My drive from ROC to peoria IL should get interesting, leaving weds coming back saturday on I-90. I'll be sure to take pictures for you guys when I punch thru some LES bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 My drive from ROC to peoria IL should get interesting, leaving weds coming back saturday on I-90. I'll be sure to take pictures for you guys when I punch thru some LES bands. Sounds like fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 High of 52F, low was 28F. If we get our first measurable snow on Friday (which seems somewhat likely), it will be 12th latest on record, compared to 8th earliest last year. If it is Saturday, it will be tied for 10th. Latest ever was 12/17 in 1998, earliest was 9/26 (0.5" in 1928). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 THE GFS AND ECMWF are in fairly good agreement on the LES situation for Friday and Saturday. Right now, they only disagree on the location and timing. The GFS has the bands impacting Buffalo and Watertown Friday and then moving gradually moving south Friday Night into Saturday. Whereas, the Euro has the bands setting up a little further south on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I can't wait to be under a lake effect snow warning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Many may know this link, but for future reference here's some spotter totals for the last decade or so in the NWS BUF forecast area (click the tabs for regional areas): http://www.erh.noaa..../lospotters.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I can't wait to be under a lake effect snow warning.. I'm down with an advisory =] 3-7 inches is good for me =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just a suggestion why don't we start a new thread on the LES potential/thoughts/forecast. And keep this thread or even start another on the synoptic event leading up to the LES? They use "Italian" telephones on the Tug...numerous roadside emergency assistance phones. Then there is Tornado Girl and her St. Bernard rescue squad. It's a great rescue squad; my St. Bernard's have brandy and hot chocolate barrels around their neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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