Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010

[Wx4cast]

Wx4cast ... Thank you ... well done as always. Your blog is wxcellent (spelling intended) as well !

Appreciate your time and expertise!

Thank you and you're welcome

Andy excellent analysis, The flow orientation will favors Western NYS at least at first. I think your right about the shifting winds, things will start out on a WSW and then shift to a west during the Fri -sat overnight home then to a WNW flow Saturday. I still think some areas will see 12+ inches. with a few areas seeing quite a bit more than that. We will give the models a few more days before we call this a slam dunk....But it is looking good for a decent LES event.

Thank you. I do agree on very good LES event and I also agree on its way too early to call it a slam dunk either.

This is one of those situations, a threat of severe weather on the warm front then the low comes through then some great LES

I don't know what you mean by severe weather on the warm front; if you mean as severe in convection I personally do not see this. If you mean as in terms of possible adverse wintry type precip then I think you're right.

[northpittweather]

Thank you and you're welcome

Thank you. I do agree on very good LES event and I also agree on its way too early to call it a slam dunk either.

I don't know what you mean by severe weather on the warm front; if you mean as severe in convection I personally do not see this. If you mean as in terms of possible adverse wintry type precip then I think you're right.

in ice mix or travel problems yes, but further south in the mid atlantic, people should watch out for some severe convection

[Wx4cast]

in ice mix or travel problems yes, but further south in the mid atlantic, people should watch out for some severe convection

OK I agree....Don't let Tornado Girl see this she may go chasing right before the holiday! LOL

[stormtracker]

OK I agree....Don't let Tornado Girl see this she may go chasing right before the holiday! LOL

Heyyyy.

First, good info in this thread...we're glad to have you here man.

Second, I'm considering a chase...I would be leaving from HGR Thanksgiving night. Matt may be coming with and I'm just trying to see if this thing will be worth it, where to go, etc etc. I know its way out and i'm not even asking specifics now. I'm just going to keep following you and LEK here.

[ayuud]

WX4cast i bookmarked your blog! great discussion man .

[Tornado Girl]

Thank you and you're welcome

Thank you. I do agree on very good LES event and I also agree on its way too early to call it a slam dunk either.

I don't know what you mean by severe weather on the warm front; if you mean as severe in convection I personally do not see this. If you mean as in terms of possible adverse wintry type precip then I think you're right.

I've been watching the severe treat with quite a bit of enthusiasm. There is a good chance for a severe weather outbreak including some tornadoes next week in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys down into the Mid-Atlantic . There will be a lot of warm air with dewpoint will be in the mid sixties on the other side of the front. So there will be a very decent battle line drawn.

[Tornado Girl]

OK I agree....Don't let Tornado Girl see this she may go chasing right before the holiday! LOL

LOL...Too late, I've been keeping an eye on that for the last few days.

[ayuud]

so do we still have a shot at that thanksgiving storm ?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

so do we still have a shot at that thanksgiving storm ?

Nothing really spectacular as far as I can see, maybe an inch or two. Then, again, I'm not really a met so I can't say with any scientific certainty.

[LakeEffectKing]

so do we still have a shot at that thanksgiving storm ?

Other than some initial potential of some mixed precip, over to rain....not much (wrt snow).

The LES projected for the weekend, still looks decent, but as others have alluded to, not quite as good as model runs depicted the setup yesterday and the day before.

One other thing.....this time of year, (and the models do not handle them very well) you will often get a weak representation of lower pressure, centered over the GL's region...(after passage of a strong, baroclinitically driven CF).......This low is typically tied to the thermal flux off all the GL's, this time of year, when we get some of our greatest delta's during the late fall. This tends to hold mean boundary layer winds SW'erly a bit longer over Eire and Ontario, and a bit more northerly over Superior.

These lake induced lower pressures also will provide additional lift (longer so than what the models would show, when "missing" this type of feature) thus carrying an event longer than expected (and sometimes aides in knocking down or holding back the 850 ridge, if strong enough).

Just something to keep an eye out for, not so much to see if the models hint at such a feature, but during moreso during verification (T=0)....

However, if delta's don't get over -15C....such a feature would most likely be weak or non-existent.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Other than some initial potential of some mixed precip, over to rain....not much (wrt snow).

The LES projected for the weekend, still looks decent, but as others have alluded to, not quite as good as model runs depicted the setup yesterday and the day before.

One other thing.....this time of year, (and the models do not handle them very well) you will often get a weak representation of lower pressure, centered over the GL's region...(after passage of a strong, baroclinitically driven CF).......This low is typically tied to the thermal flux off all the GL's, this time of year, when we get some of our greatest delta's during the late fall. This tends to hold mean boundary layer winds SW'erly a bit longer over Eire and Ontario, and a bit more northerly over Superior.

These lake induced lower pressures also will provide additional lift (longer so than what the models would show, when "missing" this type of feature) thus carrying an event longer than expected (and sometimes aides in knocking down or holding back the 850 ridge, if strong enough).

Just something to keep an eye out for, not so much to see if the models hint at such a feature, but during moreso during verification (T=0)....

However, if delta's don't get over -15C....such a feature would most likely be weak or non-existent.

How would you say it's looking for Ottawa later next week? As I've been half expecting, the models seem to be backing of the severity of the cold. Then again, I have the unfortunate habit of buying into accuweather's hype from time to time. Having said this,Ii have to remember that the majority of their clients are likely from the mid atlantic and Ohio valley, where temperatures in the low to mid 30s might be considered noteworthy for this time of year. For cold to be noteworthy in my region in late November, I would say it would have to be a high in the low 20s/upper teens, which did happen in November 2008.

I'm not comfortable with the fact that I'm hearing that the Euro is not bullish on the cold at all.

[Tornado Girl]

Winds associated with the cold front were fairly brisk today...I had a gust of 41 mph earlier today... the temperature is down to 23 and the DP is 15 looks like it will get cold tonight.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Winds associated with the cold front were fairly brisk today...I had a gust of 41 mph earlier today... the temperature is down to 23 and the DP is 15 looks like it will get cold tonight.

There was a strong thunderstorm in the south end of Ottawa early this morning as the front went through. The winds have been strong all day, and feeling quite cold too.

East winds are expected tomorrow, which should keep our temperatures quite cold, relative to average. Unfortunately, we may also get some freezing rain late tomorrow night.

[Organizing Low]

How would you say it's looking for Ottawa later next week? As I've been half expecting, the models seem to be backing of the severity of the cold. Then again, I have the unfortunate habit of buying into accuweather's hype from time to time. Having said this,Ii have to remember that the majority of their clients are likely from the mid atlantic and Ohio valley, where temperatures in the low to mid 30s might be considered noteworthy for this time of year. For cold to be noteworthy in my region in late November, I would say it would have to be a high in the low 20s/upper teens, which did happen in November 2008.

I'm not comfortable with the fact that I'm hearing that the Euro is not bullish on the cold at all.

ottawa could get several inches of snow if things pan out right, but dont hold your breath....its tenuous at best.

[Tornado Girl]

There was a strong thunderstorm in the south end of Ottawa early this morning as the front went through. The winds have been strong all day, and feeling quite cold too.

East winds are expected tomorrow, which should keep our temperatures quite cold, relative to average. Unfortunately, we may also get some freezing rain late tomorrow night.

Yes It looks like your overnight temperatures will be around -8 C. You're right about the chance of freezing rain... looks like it will start out as light snow Sunday evening and change over to light freezing rain sometime after midnight before turning into plain rain Monday Morning.

[Organizing Low]

There was a strong thunderstorm in the south end of Ottawa early this morning as the front went through. The winds have been strong all day, and feeling quite cold too.

East winds are expected tomorrow, which should keep our temperatures quite cold, relative to average. Unfortunately, we may also get some freezing rain late tomorrow night.

yes my dad was telling me about that....he said it woke him up around 7Am and it sounded like a freight train louder and louder , he called it a 'typhoon' as a joke but said it was some of the strongest sustained winds he had ever seen in a t-storm.......AND it was snowing......yes snowing, enough to coat the grass and some sections of roadway....i asked him to clarify if it was hail....he said defintely NOT, it was snow. melted shortly after.

my dad is rarely if ever impressed by the weather, so i imagine this mustve been very interesting, especially it woke him up....the fact that you heard about it too confirms it.

[Tornado Girl]

yes my dad was telling me about that....he said it woke him up around 7Am and it sounded like a freight train louder and louder , he called it a 'typhoon' as a joke but said it was some of the strongest sustained winds he had ever seen in a t-storm.......AND it was snowing......yes snowing, enough to coat the grass and some sections of roadway....i asked him to clarify if it was hail....he said defintely NOT, it was snow. melted shortly after.

my dad is rarely if ever impressed by the weather, so i imagine this mustve been very interesting, especially it woke him up....the fact that you heard about it too confirms it.

Sounded like a lot of fun.

[FEFD17]

Wx4cast that is an awesome update! Although it is not what I was hoping for (Glend Falls area amounts) I appreciate your time and dedication to this and any forecasting/teaching you.put forth.Thank you for your time

[FEFD17]

I am having trouble falling asleep.I hope I have an excuse called sleep deprevation to ask a really stupid/meaningless question.If rain storms can dump 10-12 inches or rain,how can there not be snowstorms that dump 40+ inches of snow? I was wondering is all.I guess in any case,I am going to try to sleep again. I am going to church in the a.m. I will be helping the wife make turkey dinner(s) so I hope to check in for an update on the TGD storm.

[Tornado Girl]

I am having trouble falling asleep.I hope I have an excuse called sleep deprevation to ask a really stupid/meaningless question.If rain storms can dump 10-12 inches or rain,how can there not be snowstorms that dump 40+ inches of snow? I was wondering is all.I guess in any case,I am going to try to sleep again. I am going to church in the a.m. I will be helping the wife make turkey dinner(s) so I hope to check in for an update on the TGD storm.

I live on the Tug Hill in Upstate NYS. I have seen many Lake Effect Snowfalls and I can tell you that single snowfalls of 30-40 inches are not uncommon. I've done some research of annual snowfall totals on the Tug Hill. I found a lot of interesting information from the Northeast Regional Climate Center's and National Climatic Data Center. However, before I get into the snow amounts I want to give you a broad overview of the Tug. Many old timers up here think Tug Hill Plateau got its name sometime around the 18th and 19th centuries. in this time span the term "tugging" was use to describe areas that were reached by horses or oxen pulling a wagon up a long road to get to a high area. H.E. Krueger in an article "The Lesser Wilderness - Tug Hill" he claims the Tug Hill was named by two early settlers, Isaac Perry and a Mr. Buell when traveling up the hill west of Turin The Tug Hill covers an area of 2,100 square miles with an elevation from about 350 feet on the west to over 2,000 feet in the east. The region has been described as having the heaviest snows east of the Rockies, though Michigan's Upper Peninsula and the White and Green Mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont rival Tug Hill. The combination of winter winds blowing over some 150 miles of Lake Ontario waters and the 2,000-foot rise of Tug Hill creates these heavy snows. But "lake effect" snows can be very local, so snowfall amounts around the Tug Hill Region vary considerably. There is no "average" snowfall for the entire region, except to say it is heavy everywhere in the region.

Several towns in the region hold impressive records. The small town of Hooker recorded 466.9” of snow in the winter of 1976-77. The monthly record for snow accumulation belongs to Bennet Bridges and is 192” in January 1978. The official record for a one day snowfall in NY State belongs to Montague NY. The hamlet had 77” of snow in 24 hours on the 11th/12th of January 1997. Montague also holds the single storm record for snowfall in NY with 95” from January 10th-14th in 1997. Not to be outdone, Redfield received 141 inches during the 12 day lake effect event of February, 2007.

According to data from Northeast Regional Climate Center Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University the highest recorded monthly snowfall for the Boonville area was 156.4 inches in January of 1978. The highest recorded yearly snowfall for that area was 346.1 inches in 1976-1977. The highest recorded monthly snowfall for the Montague area was 182 inches in January of 1978, the highest recorded yearly snowfall for Montague was 466.9 inches in the winter of 1976-1977. For Highmarket the highest recorded monthly snowfall was 114.3 inches of snow in January of 1997, this year also had the highest recorded yearly total with a total of 296.2 inches of snow received for the year 1996-1997. In Lowville the highest month was January of '78 when the recorded amount of snow was 75.9 inches and the highest recorded year was 251.0 for the winter of 1970-1971. For Lyons Falls the highest month was January of 1978 with 76.5 inches and the highest year was the winter of 1970 - 1971 with 181.4 inches of snow received.

There have been several Blizzards that dumped huge amounts of snow. Here are a few of them.

The Blizzard of 1967 that hit the Midwestern U.S.

NOAA records that this blizzard crippled the cities of Chicago Kalamazoo, and Gary. The storm dropped over 2 feet of snow with winds that were over 50 mph.

The Blizzard of 1966

This blizzard is one of the greatest to hit the counties east of Lake Ontario and held the record for the most snowfall in a single storm in Oswego until the Lake Effect snow storm of February 2007. this storm began as a nor'easter which affected the New York City metro area . However, it was followed by heavy "wraparound" lake effect snows. Wind speeds of more than 60 mph during the storm and in Fair Haven, New York winds are believed to have exceeded 100 mph. The snow was badly drifted; roads were closed for a week or better. I have seen pictures that showed 2 story houses covered by drifts covered entire 2 story houses. The City of Oswego received a total of 103" It is recorded that 50" fell during the last day of the storm. Also, 42.3" of snow fell in Syracuse, New York .

The New England Blizzard of 1978

According to NOAA this storm is reported to have dropped 12-36 inches of snow throughout New England. the city of Boston received over 27 inches of snow and Winds were measured over 100 mph.

New York City Blizzard of 2006

This storm is recorded to have dumped a total of 26.9 inches of snow in NYC.

The 1993 Storm of the Century,

This storm caused massive snowfall From Canada to the Southeastern US. Syracuse, N.Y. received over 40 inches, several places in the Mountains of NYS and PA had totals of 50" or more.

The Blizzard of 1888

This snowstorm Killed over 400 people. Saratoga Springs, NY is reported to have received 58 inches of snow.

So you can see there have been several snow events that dropped huge amounts of snow.

Here is a link for more info on large snowstorms.

http://s.wsj.net/pub...m_20100225.html

[LakeEffectKing]

I am having trouble falling asleep.I hope I have an excuse called sleep deprevation to ask a really stupid/meaningless question.If rain storms can dump 10-12 inches or rain,how can there not be snowstorms that dump 40+ inches of snow? I was wondering is all.I guess in any case,I am going to try to sleep again. I am going to church in the a.m. I will be helping the wife make turkey dinner(s) so I hope to check in for an update on the TGD storm.

TG's response is a great one, wrt to heavy snows...and demonstrates that our area (E and SE of L. Ontario) indeed surpass 30" snows fairly often.

However, in all cases, you'd probably not experience 10-12" of liquid with those events, and even getting to 5-8" of melted precip. would take many days to achieve, whereas if one experienced a very slow moving complex of thunderstorms during the summer, amounts as such could be achieved in several hours. This is a result of the amount of "precipitable water" a column of air can hold, respective of temperature. With temps in the 80's at the surface and a tropical airmass in place at all levels, the precipitable water amounts can easily be tenfold higher than a true polar or acrtic airmass profile that is "moist", thus the atmosphere is quite limited in it's ability to produce "precip." during the winter months, when it's cold...Luckily, the great lakes allow us to "keep up" with the warmer months, allowing for only a modest decrease in monthly precip amounts during the winter (along with our "normal" winter warm-up breaks)

If we didn't have the great lakes, we'd be very much more arid during the winter months....and if the Atlantic ocean and GOM weren't in such proximity, we'd have even a larger seasonal variation in our monthly precip amounts, with little to nothing often times during the cold months.

[LakeEffectKing]

By the way, the 00z Canadian (out to 240) depicts a LONG event E and SE of both Erie and Ontario!! If this verified, most of us would go from having nothing on the ground during the day on Black Friday, to several FEET by the following Tuesday night:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

[OSUmetstud]

By the way, the 00z Canadian (out to 240) depicts a LONG event E and SE of both Erie and Ontario!! If this verified, most of us would go from having nothing on the ground during the day on Black Friday, to several FEET by the following Tuesday night:

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/cmcloop.html

memories of January 2004.

[Wx4cast]

I live on the Tug Hill in Upstate NYS. I have seen many Lake Effect Snowfalls and I can tell you that single snowfalls of 30-40 inches are not uncommon. I've done some research of annual snowfall totals on the Tug Hill. I found a lot of interesting information from the Northeast Regional Climate Center's and National Climatic Data Center. However, before I get into the snow amounts I want to give you a broad overview of the Tug. Many old timers up here think Tug Hill Plateau got its name sometime around the 18th and 19th centuries. in this time span the term "tugging" was use to describe areas that were reached by horses or oxen pulling a wagon up a long road to get to a high area. H.E. Krueger in an article "The Lesser Wilderness - Tug Hill" he claims the Tug Hill was named by two early settlers, Isaac Perry and a Mr. Buell when traveling up the hill west of Turin The Tug Hill covers an area of 2,100 square miles with an elevation from about 350 feet on the west to over 2,000 feet in the east. The region has been described as having the heaviest snows east of the Rockies, though Michigan's Upper Peninsula and the White and Green Mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont rival Tug Hill. The combination of winter winds blowing over some 150 miles of Lake Ontario waters and the 2,000-foot rise of Tug Hill creates these heavy snows. But "lake effect" snows can be very local, so snowfall amounts around the Tug Hill Region vary considerably. There is no "average" snowfall for the entire region, except to say it is heavy everywhere in the region.

Several towns in the region hold impressive records. The small town of Hooker recorded 466.9” of snow in the winter of 1976-77. The monthly record for snow accumulation belongs to Bennet Bridges and is 192” in January 1978. The official record for a one day snowfall in NY State belongs to Montague NY. The hamlet had 77” of snow in 24 hours on the 11th/12th of January 1997. Montague also holds the single storm record for snowfall in NY with 95” from January 10th-14th in 1997. Not to be outdone, Redfield received 141 inches during the 12 day lake effect event of February, 2007.

According to data from Northeast Regional Climate Center Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University the highest recorded monthly snowfall for the Boonville area was 156.4 inches in January of 1978. The highest recorded yearly snowfall for that area was 346.1 inches in 1976-1977. The highest recorded monthly snowfall for the Montague area was 182 inches in January of 1978, the highest recorded yearly snowfall for Montague was 466.9 inches in the winter of 1976-1977. For Highmarket the highest recorded monthly snowfall was 114.3 inches of snow in January of 1997, this year also had the highest recorded yearly total with a total of 296.2 inches of snow received for the year 1996-1997. In Lowville the highest month was January of '78 when the recorded amount of snow was 75.9 inches and the highest recorded year was 251.0 for the winter of 1970-1971. For Lyons Falls the highest month was January of 1978 with 76.5 inches and the highest year was the winter of 1970 - 1971 with 181.4 inches of snow received.

There have been several Blizzards that dumped huge amounts of snow. Here are a few of them.

The Blizzard of 1967 that hit the Midwestern U.S.

NOAA records that this blizzard crippled the cities of Chicago Kalamazoo, and Gary. The storm dropped over 2 feet of snow with winds that were over 50 mph.

The Blizzard of 1966

This blizzard is one of the greatest to hit the counties east of Lake Ontario and held the record for the most snowfall in a single storm in Oswego until the Lake Effect snow storm of February 2007. this storm began as a nor'easter which affected the New York City metro area . However, it was followed by heavy "wraparound" lake effect snows. Wind speeds of more than 60 mph during the storm and in Fair Haven, New York winds are believed to have exceeded 100 mph. The snow was badly drifted; roads were closed for a week or better. I have seen pictures that showed 2 story houses covered by drifts covered entire 2 story houses. The City of Oswego received a total of 103" It is recorded that 50" fell during the last day of the storm. Also, 42.3" of snow fell in Syracuse, New York .

The New England Blizzard of 1978

According to NOAA this storm is reported to have dropped 12-36 inches of snow throughout New England. the city of Boston received over 27 inches of snow and Winds were measured over 100 mph.

New York City Blizzard of 2006

This storm is recorded to have dumped a total of 26.9 inches of snow in NYC.

The 1993 Storm of the Century,

This storm caused massive snowfall From Canada to the Southeastern US. Syracuse, N.Y. received over 40 inches, several places in the Mountains of NYS and PA had totals of 50" or more.

The Blizzard of 1888

This snowstorm Killed over 400 people. Saratoga Springs, NY is reported to have received 58 inches of snow.

So you can see there have been several snow events that dropped huge amounts of snow.

Here is a link for more info on large snowstorms.

http://s.wsj.net/pub...m_20100225.html

Nice write-up

[ayuud]

NWS BUF

"

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD

AS A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS OUR REGION AND DRAW SEASONABLY COLD

AIR SOUTHWARDS FROM CANADA. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE INCREASING

POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MEASUREABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH

ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY STAYING SOUTH OF BOTH THE

BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISCUSSION OVER

THE INCONSISTENCIES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PACKAGES...

SPECIFICALLY IN REGARDS TO THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS

THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT...BUT

THE AGREEMENT IS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN THE

DETAILS OF WHERE AND HOW MUCH IMPACT ANY LAKE SNOWS WILL HAVE. THAT

BEING SAID...WILL TRY TO GIVE AS MUCH DETAIL AS POSSIBLE WITHOUT

`COACHING` THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE GEFS

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...NOW DEPICT A DEEP SFC STORM IN THE VCNTY OF

NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. AS THIS STORM CROSSED

LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL

STRUCTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF

OUR REGION. H85 TEMPS WILL CERTAINLY BE HIGH ENOUGH (+4 TO +6C) TO

KEEP PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION. HAVE RAISED

CHC POPS TO LIKELY.

IT WILL BECOME MUCH MORE INTERESTING THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS COLDER

AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H85 TEMPS

WILL TUMBLE TO -8C THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS

LINING UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AGAIN...EXACT PLACEMENT OF ANY LAKE

PLUME WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST FROM THIS RANGE...BUT THIS PATTERN

WOULD FAVOR AN PLACEMENT OF A BAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE BUFFALO

SOUTHTOWNS. ANY ORGANIZED BAND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARDS DURING

THE OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. ACTIVITY OVER THE

EAST END OF LK ONTARIO WOULD PROBABLY BE LESS ORGANIZED AS A FAIR

AMOUNT OF SHEAR WOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING A

MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE ONTARIO STORM EXITING VIA QUEBEC

AND THE MARITIMES WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH

BOTH ITS H5 AND SFC FEATURES. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A BOMB OFF THE

NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS SUSPICIOUS GIVEN THE

CLIMATOLOGY OF HOW THESE UPPER LOWS MOVE. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARDS THE

ECMWF FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIOD.

THAT BEING SAID...ON BLACK FRIDAY THE DEEP SFC STORM OVER ONTARIO

WOULD EXIT ACROSS QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL SET UP A DEEP

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER OUR REGION WITH

SCATTERED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED. THE

SNOWBELTS SOUTHEST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WOULD BE THE FAVORED

AREAS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT GIVEN MODEL

DISCREPANCIES...THIS FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID FOR SURE IS THAT BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH

READINGS AVERAGING SOME 5-8 DEG F BELOW NORMAL."

[West Point, NY]

I am having trouble falling asleep.I hope I have an excuse called sleep deprevation to ask a really stupid/meaningless question.If rain storms can dump 10-12 inches or rain,how can there not be snowstorms that dump 40+ inches of snow? I was wondering is all.I guess in any case,I am going to try to sleep again. I am going to church in the a.m. I will be helping the wife make turkey dinner(s) so I hope to check in for an update on the TGD storm.

Rainstorms that dump 10-12" of rain are accompanied by high dewpoint airmasses which often originate in the tropics. These storms can hold tremendous amounts of moisture compared to a snowstorm with a cold airmass . I don't know if you've ever climbed Mt. Washington in the summertime. It can be a typical 80 degree, sunny, humid late July day from the base of the Mtn. As you climb, the airmass gradually cools until you hit a point about 80 percent up the mtn. that the temp has cooled so much that the airmass can no longer hold the moisture and a dense low cloud bank forms on the windward side of the mtn. This cloud can produce drizzle, or sleet as it rises over the mtn. peak and down the leeward side until it hits the same altitude where it started. At that point, it dissipates back to a clear, sunny day. It is amazing to stand under this point and watch both sides of the mtn. as you see an ever generating cloud line forming to your west and vanishing to your east. Basically, the same amount of moisture in the air on a sunny summer day, leads to a miserable, damp, overcast, wet day if you cool it down to 40 degrees. Colder air just cant hold enough moisture to produce 10-12" of melted down precip. without some freak setup/ stalling occurring. The lake effect is a totally different beast as it's just the constant cold air blowing over warmer water which can produce extreme snows for days but on a localized basis.

[Logan11]

Nice chilly morning here today...low of 21F.

26.5 and sun through some cirrus at 9:15 AM.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

ottawa could get several inches of snow if things pan out right, but dont hold your breath....its tenuous at best.

The latest Environment Canada forecast has Ottawa with sunny skies on Thursday. It's just November, so I shouldn't be too concerned.

I've been thinking that we may get more snow come January and February. many mets, including JB seem to be hinting that it will turn milder across the east during those two months, which could lift the storm track further north. So long as it's not like January 1990, we'd be fine.

[adk]

12z gfs presents a classic junk fest.

Friday afternoon warm front precip, turning to rain/ice mix then blast cold front through. Yay. No measurable secondary development. Kinda don't believe it. Going to be a long winter if we get a continual pattern of two days of way below average cold with warm storms.

[OSUmetstud]

12z GFS makes the all important Black Friday shortwave less progressive...perhaps catching onto the ridiculous high latitude blocking that is being modeled. This keeps Buffalo and the southtowns in the game for potential heavy LES.