Upstate NY / North Country Thread Fall 2010

[Andyace]

Congratulations

Thanks

[NYWx]

She is aware of my winter weather ocd

And she's still going ahead with the wedding. Good for her!

[LakeEffectKing]

Good morning all, I am getting married today, how do the models look this morning? Any changes from yesterday?

Honeymoon on the Tug next weekend ftw!!!

Congrats! Marriage is great! It's a challange....CONSTANTLY! Always stick to the vows.....and my absolute BEST advice (been there done that now for 13 years) is learn to LISTEN.....WITHOUT GIVING ADVICE ALL THE TIME!!! Women LOVE an ear......not so much a mouth. (Unless it is from their girlfriends' lips! )

Enjoy your wonderful day!

[NYWx]

Honeymoon on the Tug next weekend ftw!!!

Congrats! Marriage is great! It's a challange....CONSTANTLY! Always stick to the vows.....and my absolute BEST advice (been there done that now for 13 years) is learn to LISTEN.....WITHOUT GIVING ADVICE ALL THE TIME!!! Women LOVE an ear......not so much a mouth. (Unless it is from their girlfriends' lips! )

Enjoy your wonderful day!

Agree. 24 years here

[Andyace]

Thanks! great advice! but um what about the weather?

[Saggy]

177 from Adams through Barnes Corners to Lowville is funner!

Lake Erie, this time of year competes very well for snowfall rates with L. Ontario....However, you give me a 3 lake connection pointed right at the Tug with delta's over 23-25....and it'd be hard to not take that trip!

And that is not taking anything away from the southtowns of Buffalo.....I've seen good 5"/hr. stuff there before!

I've done that 177 thing in the middle of the night when our camp was outside of Croghan.. some scary times because there is NOTHING for miles at a time in spots. It's like you are on another planet. Can't tell if you are driving on the road or through a field. Part of the reason we moved it was because my father HATED driving 177.

[Couchsachraga]

Congratulations!!

And there's another good piece of advice: Remember that she is more important than even the weather

It rained lightly on my wedding day (outside wedding)...folks said "that's good luck!"... so far, 5+ years have gone really, really well. Enjoy:)

[LakeEffectKing]

Thanks! great advice! but um what about the weather?

Cloudy, cool, damp, windy.....little showery this afternoon ending with some splats of snow up your way. Next weekend is still up in the air according to the models....I'm leaning with a stronger impulse cutting west as opposed to the strung out wavetrain the GFS is depicting. Thus, LES potential is more for Tug northward (and off Erie just south of BUF to IAG) sliding southward abit into next weekend.

[Wx4cast]

Andy,

THANK YOU for updating your blog - I keep you on the "link bar" right next to this site - I check them out too much to be a standard bookmark

Are you updating both of your blogs these days, or just focusing on one?

I'm looking forward to next week... even this weekend in the Adirondacks will be a nice change of pace to get the ground frozen (a little, before next week's "warm up").

You're welcome. For now I'll just be updating the WX4cast blog and putting the same info in the other one. I have some ideas for the second blog that I may implement at a later date. I will try to be updating on a more regular basis but the regularity of the updates depends upon my available time.

[Wx4cast]

Good morning all, I am getting married today, how do the models look this morning? Any changes from yesterday?

The ensembles and all models are in awesome agreement you will have a spectacular day and years of happiness.

And just a bit of advice (from my own personal experience) when on vacations, honeymoon, etc. Forget about the weather; the "misses" wants your undivided attention. (Coming up on 30 years for me. So I must be doing something right or perhaps my wife has both great patience and tolerance for me. )

Congratulations to the both of you.

[CNYWeather]

Well after almost 24 years here, the wife puts up with my wx obsession.

If I had a $1 for every time I said to her "look at this" or "look at this new thing I put on my site"

and she said "wow, thats cool" I'd be a millionaire.

[Tornado Girl]

Good morning all, I am getting married today, how do the models look this morning? Any changes from yesterday?

Congratulations

[Tornado Girl]

It still looks like Downwind of the Lakes will see a lot of LES Friday and Saturday.

[Wx4cast]

I updated my blog at: Andy's Blog Just a heads up it is really so much of an update on this upcoming TGD's weather. Those will follow later.

[FEFD17]

Hello everyone! I am just curious as to the possible,secondary low stalling out for a snow or rain event.I am gonna head out to the garage,get the truck and plow prepped for the season.I also work for emergency road services,and it looks like we are working the holiday.......I wont mind overtime,and lets face it a turkey dinner is great, but turkey sandwiches rock!!! Gotta run,I will be back later.

Andyace,Congrats!

[ontario squalls]

Honeymoon on the Tug next weekend ftw!!!

Congrats! Marriage is great! It's a challange....CONSTANTLY! Always stick to the vows.....and my absolute BEST advice (been there done that now for 13 years) is learn to LISTEN.....WITHOUT GIVING ADVICE ALL THE TIME!!! Women LOVE an ear......not so much a mouth. (Unless it is from their girlfriends' lips! )

Enjoy your wonderful day!

Yeah, its so great I've done it twice. LOL

Congrats!!

Going someplace cold for the honeymoon?

[Tornado Girl]

I updated my blog at: Andy's Blog Just a heads up it is really so much of an update on this upcoming TGD's weather. Those will follow later.

Very good write-up on theThanksgiving Day 2004 wind and severe weather event

[Wx4cast]

Very good write-up on theThanksgiving Day 2004 wind and severe weather event

Thank you. I knew you would like it. ;-) I also failed to add that during one of my severe wx cut-ins that I did that AM around 11-1115 the server for the radar computer died too. It was all the power hits that we were taking at that time.

[Wx4cast]

Very interesting write-up from usedtobe (Wes Junker) in the Mid-Atlantic forum. As always an excellent read from him! Check it out at:

The Pattern...continues to be

[WNYLakeEffect]

This is interesting:

February 7, 1900

8" of snow in 30 minutes...besides the likely lake effect origin, I wonder what caused that to be so extreme and localized?

[LakeEffectKing]

From BUF:

BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES...IT IS STILL WAY TOO

EARLY FOR ANY FIRM DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS

UPCOMING EVENT. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS DO AGREE THAT NOTICEABLY

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS

COULD SET THE STAGE FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. STAY

TUNED.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDGE NORTH INTO THE

OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE

FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO

LINGER OVER NEW YORK STATE.

[LakeEffectKing]

This is interesting:

February 7, 1900

8" of snow in 30 minutes...besides the likely lake effect origin, I wonder what caused that to be so extreme and localized?

Great find!! I suspect it to be a "tea kettle" event (ie....offshore event with just a very slight drift inland) I was in one of these in Oswego a few years back, and the flake conglomerations were TREMENDOUS....and accumulated very quickly! 12" of pure fluff in a 2 hour period of time....with NO wind at all. A few miles inland, and surrounding the area....there was NOTHING.

[LakeEffectKing]

To add to the tea kettle discussion, remember, typical LES that extends inland must have a decent inflow and transitional wind, to get them into the colder, denser air, with uplift as an additional forcing. However, tea kettle snow storms are similar in nature to pop up T-storms, in that the organization typically is formed in place. With little to no wind for the dendrites to bang around and fragment in the inland colder air, you get nice "wet", "sticky" flakes from the relatively warmer maritime air of the lake, which clump very well, producing big accumulation rates.

[CNYWxGuy]

Great find!! I suspect it to be a "tea kettle" event (ie....offshore event with just a very slight drift inland) I was in one of these in Oswego a few years back, and the flake conglomerations were TREMENDOUS....and accumulated very quickly! 12" of pure fluff in a 2 hour period of time....with NO wind at all. A few miles inland, and surrounding the area....there was NOTHING.

To add to the tea kettle discussion, remember, typical LES that extends inland must have a decent inflow and transitional wind, to get them into the colder, denser air, with uplift as an additional forcing. However, tea kettle snow storms are similar in nature to pop up T-storms, in that the organization typically is formed in place. With little to no wind for the dendrites to bang around and fragment in the inland colder air, you get nice "wet", "sticky" flakes from the relatively warmer maritime air of the lake, which clump very well, producing big accumulation rates.

Here's a BUF Nexrad image I saved from one such event back in Jan '09...

[Wx4cast]

The models are starting to show less divergent solutions in the Wednesday Night through Black Friday period as it relates to the TGD weather pattern.

I do like that the GFS is similar to its GEFS mean. There is some similarity amongst the GFS/UK/NAM in one camp with the EC the outlier on the track of the low through the Great Lakes around the holiday though the GFS may be too deep on both the pressure of the surface LP as well as the H500 low's height.

Most of the models continue show rather strong confluent flow across the NEUS during the Wed-TGD period. The forecast 850 temperature field from both the EC

and GFS

continue to show a cold air damming (CAD) signature across East-central NYS to Western New England ,I would think that the probability of frozen precip at the start of the event is quite good for a sizable portion of NYS. I would expect the southern periphery to extend from from WNY (the NY/PA border) to the Catskills and Hudson Valley around Albany then towards S VT. Right now I would think that the start of any precip would be late afternoon to sunset over the west and around 2-6 am in the east. Areas from about ART to GFL may not see the precip arrive until during TGD while areas to the north and northeast of this line may see little if any precip at all.With the system looking like it is occluding over the Great Lakes on TGD and with this CAD signature remaining in place on both models (GFS being the strongest). There should be some sort of at least a weak LP development (if not two) east of the primary. I would favor one on the warm front with a second possible LP development on the triple-point (TP). Looking at the 12z GFS data in WINGRIDDS and running a macro that I like to use that shows where LP (secondary) LP development might occur it is pointing towards a weak secondary on the warm front LI/LI Sound/SNE Coastal Waters (west of Block Island's) longitude. This also fits well with synoptic climatology that indicates when a closed H700 hPA low tracks along and north of a Chicago-Cleveland-Montreal line any secondary development tends to occur along the coast to the east through northeast of the primary surface cyclone.

Looking at the ageostrophic winds the forecast data continues to show N-NE ageostrophic flow of around 10-15 kts for the NE corner of NYS from about Ogdensburg to Gloversville-Glens Falls-Rutland on Thursday :

So I would think that within this area either all snow or a mix would occur. BUFKIT temperature tool indicates a fairly sharp temperature gradient pretty much N-S oriented with coldest temps near the US/CAN border and warmest heading south.

On the other hand owing to how the pattern looks (SW-WSW flow aloft and confluent flow) I think QP will average around or less than 1/3 rd of an inch; some isolated near ½ inch amounts may occur south Albany in the HV and maybe across the Western Adirondacks where some orographic enhancement in the SW to WSW flow may occur. In general I would think that there will be north-south gradient to the qpf with lesser amounts to the NW-N of the above area and more along and south to southeast of the above area.

As for the post-holiday weather: still looks like a good (significant LES) event but George (LEK) may be right in that it may not be as long a duration event. In addition the bands may shift around during the Friday thru Sunday period and I think that both the belts to the east of LO and LE will be vying for who gets the most. I'm beginning to think it will be a good competition but I'm starting to think that LE snowbelts MAY actually win out over the LO ones, sorry Pville and TG. (Though my caveat is that it it is still too far away to really commit to a definite forecast). I'll address this in a separate update as we get closer to the expected event. Perhaps some of my colleagues both mets and weather pro and hobbyist alike can help me out.

[Saggy]

Thanks for the time and effort for that writeup wx4cast!

[Wx4cast]

Thanks for the time and effort for that writeup wx4cast!

Saggy, you're welcome.

[Landscaper]

Wx4cast ... Thank you ... well done as always. Your blog is wxcellent (spelling intended) as well !

Appreciate your time and expertise!

[Tornado Girl]

The models are starting to show less divergent solutions in the Wednesday Night through Black Friday period as it relates to the TGD weather pattern.

I do like that the GFS is similar to its GEFS mean. There is some similarity amongst the GFS/UK/NAM in one camp with the EC the outlier on the track of the low through the Great Lakes around the holiday though the GFS may be too deep on both the pressure of the surface LP as well as the H500 low's height.

Most of the models continue show rather strong confluent flow across the NEUS during the Wed-TGD period. The forecast 850 temperature field from both the EC

and GFS

continue to show a cold air damming (CAD) signature across East-central NYS to Western New England ,I would think that the probability of frozen precip at the start of the event is quite good for a sizable portion of NYS. I would expect the southern periphery to extend from from WNY (the NY/PA border) to the Catskills and Hudson Valley around Albany then towards S VT. Right now I would think that the start of any precip would be late afternoon to sunset over the west and around 2-6 am in the east. Areas from about ART to GFL may not see the precip arrive until during TGD while areas to the north and northeast of this line may see little if any precip at all.With the system looking like it is occluding over the Great Lakes on TGD and with this CAD signature remaining in place on both models (GFS being the strongest). There should be some sort of at least a weak LP development (if not two) east of the primary. I would favor one on the warm front with a second possible LP development on the triple-point (TP). Looking at the 12z GFS data in WINGRIDDS and running a macro that I like to use that shows where LP (secondary) LP development might occur it is pointing towards a weak secondary on the warm front LI/LI Sound/SNE Coastal Waters (west of Block Island's) longitude. This also fits well with synoptic climatology that indicates when a closed H700 hPA low tracks along and north of a Chicago-Cleveland-Montreal line any secondary development tends to occur along the coast to the east through northeast of the primary surface cyclone.

Looking at the ageostrophic winds the forecast data continues to show N-NE ageostrophic flow of around 10-15 kts for the NE corner of NYS from about Ogdensburg to Gloversville-Glens Falls-Rutland on Thursday :

So I would think that within this area either all snow or a mix would occur. BUFKIT temperature tool indicates a fairly sharp temperature gradient pretty much N-S oriented with coldest temps near the US/CAN border and warmest heading south.

On the other hand owing to how the pattern looks (SW-WSW flow aloft and confluent flow) I think QP will average around or less than 1/3 rd of an inch; some isolated near ½ inch amounts may occur south Albany in the HV and maybe across the Western Adirondacks where some orographic enhancement in the SW to WSW flow may occur. In general I would think that there will be north-south gradient to the qpf with lesser amounts to the NW-N of the above area and more along and south to southeast of the above area.

As for the post-holiday weather: still looks like a good (significant LES) event but George (LEK) may be right in that it may not be as long a duration event. In addition the bands may shift around during the Friday thru Sunday period and I think that both the belts to the east of LO and LE will be vying for who gets the most. I'm beginning to think it will be a good competition but I'm starting to think that LE snowbelts MAY actually win out over the LO ones, sorry Pville and TG. (Though my caveat is that it it is still too far away to really commit to a definite forecast). I'll address this in a separate update as we get closer to the expected event. Perhaps some of my colleagues both mets and weather pro and hobbyist alike can help me out.

Andy excellent analysis, The flow orientation will favors Western NYS at least at first. I think your right about the shifting winds, things will start out on a WSW and then shift to a west during the Fri -sat overnight home then to a WNW flow Saturday. I still think some areas will see 12+ inches. with a few areas seeing quite a bit more than that. We will give the models a few more days before we call this a slam dunk....But it is looking good for a decent LES event.

[northpittweather]

The models are starting to show less divergent solutions in the Wednesday Night through Black Friday period as it relates to the TGD weather pattern.

I do like that the GFS is similar to its GEFS mean. There is some similarity amongst the GFS/UK/NAM in one camp with the EC the outlier on the track of the low through the Great Lakes around the holiday though the GFS may be too deep on both the pressure of the surface LP as well as the H500 low's height.

Most of the models continue show rather strong confluent flow across the NEUS during the Wed-TGD period. The forecast 850 temperature field from both the EC

and GFS

continue to show a cold air damming (CAD) signature across East-central NYS to Western New England ,I would think that the probability of frozen precip at the start of the event is quite good for a sizable portion of NYS. I would expect the southern periphery to extend from from WNY (the NY/PA border) to the Catskills and Hudson Valley around Albany then towards S VT. Right now I would think that the start of any precip would be late afternoon to sunset over the west and around 2-6 am in the east. Areas from about ART to GFL may not see the precip arrive until during TGD while areas to the north and northeast of this line may see little if any precip at all.With the system looking like it is occluding over the Great Lakes on TGD and with this CAD signature remaining in place on both models (GFS being the strongest). There should be some sort of at least a weak LP development (if not two) east of the primary. I would favor one on the warm front with a second possible LP development on the triple-point (TP). Looking at the 12z GFS data in WINGRIDDS and running a macro that I like to use that shows where LP (secondary) LP development might occur it is pointing towards a weak secondary on the warm front LI/LI Sound/SNE Coastal Waters (west of Block Island's) longitude. This also fits well with synoptic climatology that indicates when a closed H700 hPA low tracks along and north of a Chicago-Cleveland-Montreal line any secondary development tends to occur along the coast to the east through northeast of the primary surface cyclone.

Looking at the ageostrophic winds the forecast data continues to show N-NE ageostrophic flow of around 10-15 kts for the NE corner of NYS from about Ogdensburg to Gloversville-Glens Falls-Rutland on Thursday :

So I would think that within this area either all snow or a mix would occur. BUFKIT temperature tool indicates a fairly sharp temperature gradient pretty much N-S oriented with coldest temps near the US/CAN border and warmest heading south.

On the other hand owing to how the pattern looks (SW-WSW flow aloft and confluent flow) I think QP will average around or less than 1/3 rd of an inch; some isolated near ½ inch amounts may occur south Albany in the HV and maybe across the Western Adirondacks where some orographic enhancement in the SW to WSW flow may occur. In general I would think that there will be north-south gradient to the qpf with lesser amounts to the NW-N of the above area and more along and south to southeast of the above area.

As for the post-holiday weather: still looks like a good (significant LES) event but George (LEK) may be right in that it may not be as long a duration event. In addition the bands may shift around during the Friday thru Sunday period and I think that both the belts to the east of LO and LE will be vying for who gets the most. I'm beginning to think it will be a good competition but I'm starting to think that LE snowbelts MAY actually win out over the LO ones, sorry Pville and TG. (Though my caveat is that it it is still too far away to really commit to a definite forecast). I'll address this in a separate update as we get closer to the expected event. Perhaps some of my colleagues both mets and weather pro and hobbyist alike can help me out.

This is one of those situations, a threat of severe weather on the warm front then the low comes through then some great LES