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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part V


Baroclinic Zone

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True - could be plowing too far north while not weakening or opening up,then again, I haven't put away my ski helmet yet, heavy pingers definitely not ruled out.

I will repeat what I've said prior (days ago). In Boston, it snows for prolonged periods, it rains for prolonged periods, it almost never pings for prolonged periods. Pinging at the end before a dry slot or the cutoff or a change back. 12-18 total of 2 events imho.

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Ah now I can see why you say the whole second event is sleet for you, you ping for 3 hours before me all the while the column is saturated, typical SWFE out your way, I put down a good .3 while you ping, Kev ought to love that.

lol even in Moosup you don't get much snow. It's pretty much all PL/ZR for you and me in fact our soundings look dead-on similar.

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lol even in Moosup you don't get much snow. It's pretty much all PL/ZR for you and me in fact our soundings look dead-on similar.

sixer ofSmittys says you are pinging while I am rippin, happens all the time. IDK what soundings you look at but Ready Now says I am saturated below zero while you ping.

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The NAM doesn't make a ton of sense to me. It's actually a little less amplified but gets everything even further north as it drags the low to mid level features out under a vmax that races up near Buffalo.

I'm waiting on the others before jumping ship but my expectations are in check. 4-7" total, was thinking 7" earlier have to give some to the NAM and really think 3-6" total for now.

Something isn't quite right with the NAM but we'll see, maybe it's onto something.

I think I know what the NAM did. It weakend the High Pressure out in the upper Mid-West too quickly. That high is strong and will be much slower to erode than what is progged on the NAM :banned:

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FOUS61 KWNO 010000
OUTPUT FROM NAM 00Z FEB 01 11
TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5   TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5
A
BOS//334561 -0524 333407 24949091  
06000414064 02924 330107 26929092   
12000648163 05422 310505 30949293   
180[b]24[/b]959367 11118 280312 33959395   
240[b]37[/b]969160 03610 250316 37979599 
300[b]09[/b]968665 -0909 230317 38979400 
360[b]12[/b]989473 02913 190517 40999300  
42059989750 12413 070625 45009601   
48026964012 00304 040220 36989600   
54006897820 02215 073515 26939290   
60003856724 -1120 153413 24929088   

Bolded qpf BOS snow. 0.92. Now....0.59 36 to 42 and at 42 it's pinging but T3 temps is +1. But how much of that 0.59 fell when it was snow. Conversefly, 0.26 42 to 48. By 48 it's all snow, but how much pinged prior to the snow?

So it appears as a guess about 1.4 qpf snow, rest ping.

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oh cool, yea we have the ice penis, they climbed it this past weekend. I wish I saw it but a bunch of us went to the annual AMS meeting in Seattle. We are all pumped for this storm, it looks like a fluffy 12"+ here in the NEK. I do the weather on News 7 up here and I am on tomorrow, its going to be a fun day forecasting!

Went to lyndon for three semesters before switching from atmospheric sciences to education.... big mistake. Lived in Wheelock.... loved it.

I'm in Ira now, which is about 7 mi southwest of rutland.

Does LSC still have the ice penis?

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True - could be plowing too far north while not weakening or opening up,then again, I haven't put away my ski helmet yet, heavy pingers definitely not ruled out.

Maybe we will see.

well... consider the audience here. From newbies to regulars (namely one of them) everyone seemed to hone in on the cold NAM solutions over the last 24 hours. Those cold solutions are just about gone now.

The NAM has made a substantial tick warmer which I think solidifies what many of us had already forecasted.

I'm not sure what happens from here. The 00z NAM seems to jive pretty well with most other guidance which makes me think storm 2 will be pretty blah here in CT with a lot of sleet and fairly low impact.

There's pretty much no denying it's warmed the last two runs. There's also no denying models - down here, have been too cold for every event just about all year. If all the other models gel with the NAM at 0z and we see a tick warmer than we have to start considering the fact that as you/others have said we quite often see warmer solutions in the end. Coupled with the biases this year of being too cold it gets interesting.

As depicted right now storm two is a total dud down here and even storm 1 would flip before ending.

CNE and NNE look fine. I'd not want to be the person making a forecats along the Pike if the NAM were to verify.

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I will repeat what I've said prior (days ago). In Boston, it snows for prolonged periods, it rains for prolonged periods, it almost never pings for prolonged periods. Pinging at the end before a dry slot or the cutoff or a change back. 12-18 total of 2 events imho.

Yeah, not thinking prolonged but I could see there being an hour or two of brain crunching ping around the end of the storm.

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