ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Eh, pinging for an hour is fine. Still looks solid qpf wize with 1.1-1.2 region wide by 18z Wednesday edit: maybe slightly less then 18z. The NAM doesn't change my thinking here...its slightly warmer, but its ebb and flow we keep seeing. It will probably come in colder on 6z or 12z...other guidance has been up and down too. I'm expecting us to ping eventually but I think we get ripped with several hours of heavy snow before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Rut roh, me like power It looks to me like more PL than ZR for most of us. Not a classic ice storm look I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Verbatim it pings up to BED, but most of the qpf may be over at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 love when that happens when the precip ends lol I was hoping it would happen in time to flip us back to snow at the end and give us a chance for another 2-3''. Something that might end up saving us from major icing too is dry slot potential...going to be one big nasty dry slot racing this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The NAM doesn't change my thinking here...its slightly warmer, but its ebb and flow we keep seeing. It will probably come in colder on 6z or 12z...other guidance has been up and down too. I'm expecting us to ping eventually but I think we get ripped with several hours of heavy snow before that happens. not sure what ebb and flow you're talking about here. The 18z NAM ticked warmer than 12z and 00z ticked warmer than 18z. The overly cold NAM (as is typical) is trending warmer and back to reality. No real ebb and flow here just a flow toward warm reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 BIG temp crash at 850 between 42 and 48 Looks like 45hr is the warmest. I get into the H7 dryslot briefly this run. I was actually looking forward to the previous solutions that kept most of interior MA snow and then me in some deformation and then the hanging back fluff Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 love when that happens when the precip ends lol The NAM doesn't make a ton of sense to me. It's actually a little less amplified but gets everything even further north as it drags the low to mid level features out under a vmax that races up near Buffalo. I'm waiting on the others before jumping ship but my expectations are in check. 4-7" total, was thinking 7" earlier have to give some to the NAM and really think 3-6" total for now. Something isn't quite right with the NAM but we'll see, maybe it's onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hmm. pingers more north AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its funny... the SV 48 hr. snowfall map still shows 12-18" for northern CT.... even with the increased warmth. Mostly from the first batch, im guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was hoping it would happen in time to flip us back to snow at the end and give us a chance for another 2-3''. Something that might end up saving us from major icing too is dry slot potential...going to be one big nasty dry slot racing this way. what will save us from big ice is all the sleet. Verbatim on the NAM Hartford gets almost all sleet for storm 2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0.8" up here in VT all snow with great ratios....me likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what a thumping snow on the nam for some. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The NAM doesn't change my thinking here...its slightly warmer, but its ebb and flow we keep seeing. It will probably come in colder on 6z or 12z...other guidance has been up and down too. I'm expecting us to ping eventually but I think we get ripped with several hours of heavy snow before that happens. Sweet. Looks like a wide swath of .5-.6 for the first one and .9-1 from the 2nd event. About 1.5" total. I'll keep with my 11-17" call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think I ping up here briefly as well. NAM snow map suggesting no one south of Route 2 gets 8" from round two. Not sure I buy that, but I don't think anyone South of there stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, managed to pull colder for the first event, it's about the same/tick warmer for storm 2 through 12z wed. The thing is at h36 it's about as close to the 42 hour 18z GFS as you'll ever get right down to placing the max vorticity in the m/l. The GFS is stronger aloft and therefore has the m/l 8h centers further west which helps blunt the warmth. The NAM is quite a bit further NE of the old GFS and brings the 8h not far to the WSW of Niagra Falls as a fairly organized system. The GFS was opening up at that point. If it goes that far north at that intensity, blow torch game over. True - could be plowing too far north while not weakening or opening up,then again, I haven't put away my ski helmet yet, heavy pingers definitely not ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0.8" up here in VT all snow with great ratios....me likey. Where are you..... NEK??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Best. Post. Ever. Yeah I win Happy dance Oh its 1.8f here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what will save us from big ice is all the sleet. Verbatim on the NAM Hartford gets almost all sleet for storm 2 lol Starting to worry about big time zr interior southern ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 About time for the 0z runs.. i hope you kicked something when you said this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 not sure what ebb and flow you're talking about here. The 18z NAM ticked warmer than 12z and 00z ticked warmer than 18z. The overly cold NAM (as is typical) is trending warmer and back to reality. No real ebb and flow here just a flow toward warm reality. If you are just using the last 3 runs of the NAM...but I'm talking about general ebb and flow of most guidance. I never believed the obscenely cold runs of the NAM, so its not shocking 2 runs have come in warmer on it. The last 48 hours have seen us agonize over each run but its essentially been a little roller coaster and we are still looking at a gradient near the pike, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Starting to worry about big time zr interior southern ct I'm not really yet. I still think even areas just inland of LIS will see quite a bit of sleet and cut down on the icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That big omega thump is what to watch. That may be the difference between storm totals of 10" or 17" for some. Kinda like the big grande finale there between 12-18z on Wednesday. Still seems like a lot of questions for much of SNE re: p-type. But, we know most in SNE will do well in round 1. C/NNE do really well in round 2. And a few folks tap into the goods from both. Sounds like a fun system. Hopefully, things will trend colder so people in CT can watch the SuperBowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 not sure what ebb and flow you're talking about here. The 18z NAM ticked warmer than 12z and 00z ticked warmer than 18z. The overly cold NAM (as is typical) is trending warmer and back to reality. No real ebb and flow here just a flow toward warm reality. Ah now I can see why you say the whole second event is sleet for you, you ping for 3 hours before me all the while the column is saturated, typical SWFE out your way, I put down a good .3 while you ping, Kev ought to love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well the NAM over-corrected cold. Now it's close to shaking hands with the Euro. 10-20 inches for much of MA, 15-24 NH/ME/lower VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1.5'' on the SREF and NAM so far . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like 45hr is the warmest. I get into the H7 dryslot briefly this run. I was actually looking forward to the previous solutions that kept most of interior MA snow and then me in some deformation and then the hanging back fluff Wed night. At least for the first time this winter you have much less to worry about than I do what will save us from big ice is all the sleet. Verbatim on the NAM Hartford gets almost all sleet for storm 2 lol It looks like it would be very close between PL/ZR but probably just a tad too cool with the warm layer to give us major icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 man the whole AWT is getting annoying.. lol.. really.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Kinda like the big grande finale there between 12-18z on Wednesday. Still seems like a lot of questions for much of SNE re: p-type. But, we know most in SNE will do well in round 1. C/NNE do really well in round 2. And a few folks tap into the goods from both. Sounds like a fun system. Hopefully, things will trend colder so people in CT can watch the SuperBowl. I actually might benefit slightly from longitude..lol. Still looks like an omega dump snow for me, but then mixing with IP near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If you are just using the last 3 runs of the NAM...but I'm talking about general ebb and flow of most guidance. I never believed the obscenely cold runs of the NAM, so its not shocking 2 runs have come in warmer on it. The last 48 hours have seen us agonize over each run but its essentially been a little roller coaster and we are still looking at a gradient near the pike, lol. well... consider the audience here. From newbies to regulars (namely one of them) everyone seemed to hone in on the cold NAM solutions over the last 24 hours. Those cold solutions are just about gone now. The NAM has made a substantial tick warmer which I think solidifies what many of us had already forecasted. I'm not sure what happens from here. The 00z NAM seems to jive pretty well with most other guidance which makes me think storm 2 will be pretty blah here in CT with a lot of sleet and fairly low impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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