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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part V


Baroclinic Zone

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Agree, especially considering how easily the mid-level warming has advanced north this afternoon. Traffic cams in Kent County are now covered in ice, must be zr there now.

Freezing rain here confirmed with sleet mix.

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Yeah it looks correct...it might briefly go north of the pike if we had 3 hourly panels between 18z and 00z...but it stays south on the 6 hourly panels...the sleet line probably intrudes a bit north of that though...however, most of the qpf has probably already fallen in that type of scenario. Probably like a 6-9" thump then maybe brief pinging and a dry slot. Then an inch or two of fluff tomorrow night.

Is the 1-3 tomorrow night for all of SNE?

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Just make sure to have what you need if you lose power, lol. Flash lights, wood for a fire or woodstove (if you have one)...the house will get very cold very quickly if you lose power and heat.

Hopefully you keep power though. At least it looks like qpf shouldn't be too much over an inch...so while it could get really bad, hopefully its not a total catastrophe.

Does the Waterbury area look like just IP Will?

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Yeah it looks correct...it might briefly go north of the pike if we had 3 hourly panels between 18z and 00z...but it stays south on the 6 hourly panels...the sleet line probably intrudes a bit north of that though...however, most of the qpf has probably already fallen in that type of scenario. Probably like a 6-9" thump then maybe brief pinging and a dry slot. Then an inch or two of fluff tomorrow night.

The GFS and NAM seemed to want to introduce a period of plain rain for a short but potent period... I'm really hoping that crap doesn't happen but I'm not entirely sure it won't.

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I'm just hoping to stay frozen... does Jerry's assessment of the Euro - 0 degree line stays juuust south of pike -- match yours?

I'm still thinking we could get a good thump of snow before any taint. Granted it's one model, but I feel better that the euro held firm. That layer near 800mb is what scares me, but I think we'll see a good deal of it as snow before a flip. Hopefully.

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I had about 4 inches of sleet during that event ..:arrowhead:

That was the storm where I was mixing back in huge snowflakes all afternoon like 5-6 mi NW of you on winter hill and ended up with nearly 8" while you were ripping pure sleet the whole time. I remember linking you to webcams downtown and you couldn't believe it lol.

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So can you give me any tips on how to deal with an epic storm from first hand experience? Not good at all!

If the ice buildup starts to get significant, I'd suggest cranking up the heat in your house so it will stay warm a bit longer after the power goes out.

Portable jump starters with cig lighter plugs (or a small inverter) are good for keeping small stuff like phones charged or a few extra hours on the laptop. Can get these at walmart or auto store.

If you require electric power for water like I do, you should store some in buckets for toilet flushing.

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wow...SFZ gets up to near 5C in the 800-850mb layer on the NAM at 30 and 33 hours. The NAM has 33-34F surface temperatures verbatim but I'd have to think the temperature doesn't nudge above freezing there given the strong northerly drain from the high.

I'm banking on that H.

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