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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part V


Baroclinic Zone

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So can you give me any tips on how to deal with an epic storm from first hand experience? Not good at all!

Just make sure to have what you need if you lose power, lol. Flash lights, wood for a fire or woodstove (if you have one)...the house will get very cold very quickly if you lose power and heat.

Hopefully you keep power though. At least it looks like qpf shouldn't be too much over an inch...so while it could get really bad, hopefully its not a total catastrophe.

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Joe,

Looking upstream there's def a lot of places reporting light ZR and such where there are no echoes....so I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of freezing drizzle, but the precip could shut off totally at times. It should be interesting...I think the precip early tomorrow comes in pretty quickly...it might be into a lot of the region by 09z.

Thanks Will! enjoy the :snowman:

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I strongly disagree with this change over to plain rain on the South Shore to Bos tomorrow...its just not correct....you gotta factor in the snowpack,, where the secondary forms and does it lock in the cold air, the winds..direction and just how intense the precip is when it falls...overall I think the models will be much colder for tomorrows second storm...

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Scott, what's the verdict down in SE MA?

We got maybe .1 to .2 of crap after my 1145 measurement. Still sleeting now, 30 degrees. I'll go with 3.7" for the final, 4" is probably the right measurement but it was blowing around here and I'd rather go low.

As far as Wednesday...if we can believe the models at all I think I get 1-3" before the change. The NAM has really barely changed in terms of the forecast for 0z this evening from 0z last night to now...for the areas near the low. There was no cooling/warming trend. Through 5-6 hours the RUC isn't really any different than the NAM near Missouri in terms of 8h temps. It can always change at the last minute but....

But much colder at 18Z....0C line actually a tad south of the Pike....probably MQE west and

Ok I couldn't see the middle hours, just PSU.

Personally at this stage barring a major evolution change I think the models will bust too cold. It's just been the case all year, no different than sleet getting up to Canton at 1pm and it turning here at noon.... I hope I'm wrong.

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Euro doesn't give much help to the BOS-ORH corridor...its a marginal sleet/snow profile at 18z tomorrow in which 0.50" of qpf has fallen the previous 6 hr.

I'm just hoping to stay frozen... does Jerry's assessment of the Euro - 0 degree line stays juuust south of pike -- match yours?

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I strongly disagree with this change over to plain rain on the South Shore to Bos tomorrow...its just not correct....you gotta factor in the snowpack,, where the secondary forms and does it lock in the cold air, the winds..direction and just how intense the precip is when it falls...overall I think the models will be much colder for tomorrows second storm...

If channel 7 really said rain in Boston then :arrowhead:. The consensus is that it will struggle to get to Hartford.

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I strongly disagree with this change over to plain rain on the South Shore to Bos tomorrow...its just not correct....you gotta factor in the snowpack,, where the secondary forms and does it lock in the cold air, the winds..direction and just how intense the precip is when it falls...overall I think the models will be much colder for tomorrows second storm...

Hey man, just keeping telling yourself that, maybe it will happen.

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I strongly disagree with this change over to plain rain on the South Shore to Bos tomorrow...its just not correct....you gotta factor in the snowpack,, where the secondary forms and does it lock in the cold air, the winds..direction and just how intense the precip is when it falls...overall I think the models will be much colder for tomorrows second storm...

You will see. It's already 30 on the coast down there.

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I'm just hoping to stay frozen... does Jerry's assessment of the Euro - 0 degree line stays juuust south of pike -- match yours?

Yeah it looks correct...it might briefly go north of the pike if we had 3 hourly panels between 18z and 00z...but it stays south on the 6 hourly panels...the sleet line probably intrudes a bit north of that though...however, most of the qpf has probably already fallen in that type of scenario. Probably like a 6-9" thump then maybe brief pinging and a dry slot. Then an inch or two of fluff tomorrow night.

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