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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part V


Baroclinic Zone

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The 12z gfs gives me .9-1" additional after 6z Wednesday. How much of that do you guys think is snow? Im guessing half or so is sleet...

Date: 24 hour AVN valid 12Z WED 2 FEB 11

Station: KORH

Latitude: 42.27

Longitude: -71.88

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1000 131 -5.1 -5.2 99 0.2 -5.1 52 12 268.1 268.5 268.0 275.0 2.58

1 1000 131 -4.9 -5.2 98 0.3 -5.0 53 16 268.3 268.7 268.1 275.2 2.59

2 950 534 -5.6 -5.7 99 0.1 -5.7 74 33 271.5 271.9 270.3 278.6 2.62

3 900 959 -4.3 -4.4 99 0.1 -4.3 106 31 277.1 277.6 274.3 285.6 3.06

4 850 1411 -2.1 -2.2 99 0.1 -2.1 155 28 284.0 284.6 279.0 294.8 3.83

5 800 1895 -1.0 -1.2 99 0.2 -1.0 193 37 290.1 290.9 282.5 302.8 4.39

6 750 2410 -1.9 -2.2 98 0.3 -2.0 206 49 294.5 295.3 284.3 307.3 4.35

7 700 2957 -3.8 -4.0 99 0.2 -3.9 212 59 298.3 299.0 285.5 310.4 4.06

8 650 3540 -6.7 -6.8 99 0.1 -6.7 215 67 301.4 302.0 286.1 312.2 3.53

9 600 4161 -9.9 -10.1 99 0.1 -10.0 222 75 304.6 305.2 286.7 313.9 2.96

10 550 4829 -13.1 -13.2 99 0.2 -13.1 235 80 308.6 309.0 287.6 316.6 2.51

11 500 5551 -16.6 -16.8 99 0.2 -16.7 243 84 312.8 313.2 288.6 319.5 2.06

12 450 6335 -21.7 -22.0 98 0.3 -21.8 244 84 316.0 316.3 289.0 320.9 1.46

13 400 7191 -28.0 -30.6 79 2.5 -28.4 242 86 318.6 318.7 289.1 321.2 0.75

14 350 8136 -35.3 -39.9 62 4.6 -35.7 237 90 321.2 321.3 289.5 322.4 0.34

15 300 9189 -44.3 -50.4 50 6.1 -44.6 235 95 322.9 323.0 289.8 323.4 0.13

16 250 10384 -54.0 -56.5 74 2.5 -54.1 237 107 325.7 325.7 290.6 326.0 0.07

17 200 11781 -64.3 -64.5 97 0.2 -64.3 235 123 330.9 330.9 292.0 331.1 0.03

18 150 13494 -72.0 -72.5 93 0.5 -72.0 239 135 346.1 346.1 295.8 346.2 0.01

19 100 15954 -65.4 -78.4 15 13.0 -65.5 258 82 401.3 401.3 305.4 401.4 0.01

TRP 0

WND 0

Date: 30 hour AVN valid 18Z WED 2 FEB 11

Station: KORH

Latitude: 42.27

Longitude: -71.88

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

0 1000 32

SFC 988 131 -2.0 -2.2 99 0.2 -2.1 39 18 272.1 272.7 271.8 281.0 3.30

2 950 439 -2.9 -3.2 98 0.2 -3.0 53 29 274.2 274.7 272.8 282.9 3.18

3 900 870 0.3 0.1 98 0.2 0.2 113 17 281.8 282.6 278.5 293.8 4.27

4 850 1331 2.4 2.1 98 0.3 2.2 194 28 288.7 289.6 282.8 303.6 5.24

5 800 1822 2.1 1.8 98 0.3 2.0 214 44 293.4 294.4 285.0 309.2 5.45

6 750 2341 -0.1 -0.4 98 0.3 -0.2 219 51 296.5 297.4 285.7 311.2 4.96

7 700 2891 -3.5 -4.1 96 0.6 -3.7 220 55 298.6 299.3 285.6 310.7 4.04

8 650 3473 -7.2 -10.7 76 3.5 -8.5 220 62 300.8 301.3 284.9 308.9 2.60

9 600 4092 -11.1 -17.3 60 6.2 -12.9 220 69 303.2 303.5 284.7 308.4 1.63

10 550 4754 -15.9 -19.9 71 4.0 -17.0 218 74 305.2 305.5 285.2 309.8 1.43

11 500 5465 -20.6 -25.5 65 4.9 -21.6 221 89 308.0 308.1 285.7 311.2 0.96

12 450 6239 -24.4 -37.1 30 12.7 -26.1 224 111 312.6 312.7 286.7 313.9 0.35

13 400 7088 -29.3 -46.2 18 16.9 -30.8 227 127 316.9 317.0 287.9 317.5 0.15

14 350 8028 -36.4 -48.0 29 11.5 -37.2 229 134 319.6 319.6 288.8 320.1 0.14

15 300 9076 -45.0 -49.7 60 4.6 -45.3 230 138 321.9 321.9 289.5 322.4 0.14

16 250 10269 -54.0 -54.7 93 0.6 -54.1 232 143 325.7 325.8 290.6 326.1 0.09

17 200 11673 -61.4 -62.0 92 0.7 -61.4 233 135 335.6 335.6 293.3 335.8 0.05

18 150 13447 -63.0 -68.0 51 5.0 -63.1 236 113 361.5 361.5 299.0 361.6 0.03

19 100 15935 -64.0 -80.0 9 16.1 -64.1 254 77 404.2 404.2 305.7 404.2 0.01

TRP 0

WND

ORH probably flips around 15Z verbatim, but I don't know for sure since I don't have this in 3 hr intervals.

I believe ORH stays snow for a while after 12Z, yielding some decent accums before the changeover. We'll see

what happens with the 18Z and 00Z runs.

Edit: sorry the formatting got messed up.

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Only Year with 4 12" Storms - 1947-1948. All in December and January btw. 2 12", and 2 15".

This Year - 12", 15", 20" Storms.

Now do you understand why Another 12" Storm by February 2nd is So so so vital? This only gets to happen once every 10+ Years. And this year as the Best chance to do it.

relax and play some lady gage on the squeeze box for all the little monsters out there.

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Rain for coast..snow for rest on Saturday

Noyes

No idea if we'll have time to show this next 24hrs, but my thoughts for Saturday http://moby.to/i1iyke

A lot of news stations are going snow for this one. My parents already asked me how much for the next big snow Saturday. :arrowhead:

I said 5-10" if snow, but theres a chance it could be all rain.

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Good think I never bought into the foolish 20" talk.

12-18" it is.

It's funny how our sentiments are the same but for totally different areas. I'm content with the 3-6" that appears will fall in total. I'd hoped for 7 yesterday total, hoping for 5 now, around 3 now I think. That's when forecasts were widely 5-10 (channel 7), 9" or so on the snow graphic etc. Snow graphic is 7.2" here now FWIW.

Up near you, you've had the same conservative sentiments...in the end we'll both be satisified with what falls.

That last heavy burst could dump 1-2" here and make this a good little Cape snow.

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