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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part V


Baroclinic Zone

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This is OT but a town that averages 35" of snow a year is probably going to be poorly equipped to move 65" that falls in one month. That's just a fact. I'm not sure why people are so frustrated by it. This is what happens when there's a record amount of snow depth after a record snowy month.

Widening the roads so busses can get by in New England is not a new thing, ask the state for help while they clear parking lots for lawyers in Hartford.

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i think ice is still a pretty big concern. it's going to be tough to scour out the low level cold away from the immediate immediate shoreline with a continuous NNE low level flow.

I was thinking that enough sleet and a short duration of rd 2 would mitigate big ice potential. If we get a few tenths of ZR today then we'll have problems.

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Wow Pete! What a great start to a 2 day snogasm! Not snowing hard enough yet to get me out in it...but I think you are sending some good stuff my way.

I think we really rip starting at about noon. Approaching 2'' here. Should get there in another 20 minutes or so.

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I was thinking that enough sleet and a short duration of rd 2 would mitigate big ice potential. If we get a few tenths of ZR today then we'll have problems.

I think there might be a small area that really gets smoked by ZR. It's tough to think about it since climo probably says no, but also..not hard to understand how it could happen. I haven't looked that hard at CT like you probably have, but something I noticed anyways.

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Thanks. Appreciate the response. I'm thinking lots of rain and, yet, predicting the kids will have no school again tomorrow. Ugh!

yeah...the snow day is the easier call than the forecast for this one. Honestly the snow day may make sense for some of the shoreline towns like Madison and Branford that extend pretty far inland where northern areas of the towns could have some problems. But for anyone east of us in Clinton along the shoreline, a snow day tomorrow will likely be a bust.

Just taking a look at soundings...HVN warms quickly at the surface between 12z and 15z...right at the height of the precip. They're +3C by hour 30. Probably half the QPF (say 0.5") falls with the surface below freezing...but if we get temps rising and into the 30-32F range then eventually 33-34F, and rain in heavy enough...problems will be minimal along the shoreline east of HVN, especially out your way. I hear heavy fzra is better to avoid ice accrual on trees/powerlines.

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yeah...the snow day is the easier call than the forecast for this one. Honestly the snow day may make sense for some of the shoreline towns like Madison and Branford that extend pretty far inland where northern areas of the towns could have some problems. But for anyone east of us in Clinton along the shoreline, a snow day tomorrow will likely be a bust.

Just taking a look at soundings...HVN warms quickly at the surface between 12z and 15z...right at the height of the precip. They're +3C by hour 30. Probably half the QPF (say 0.5") falls with the surface below freezing...but if we get temps rising and into the 30-32F range then eventually 33-34F, and rain in heavy enough...problems will be minimal along the shoreline east of HVN, especially out your way. I hear heavy fzra is better to avoid ice accrual on trees/powerlines.

I wouldn't rely on those sfc temps on the NAM especially on the shoreline. They always seem to bust.

I think just inland though is where we could see problems. If things start as ZR in MMK/OXC tomorrow at 9z then big problems. If we have a longer SN to PL to ZR transition then not that bad.

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I was thinking that enough sleet and a short duration of rd 2 would mitigate big ice potential. If we get a few tenths of ZR today then we'll have problems.

hopefully what falls tonight is some light snow grains and not just continuous fzdz.

nam 2-m temps are awfully cold right down to the shore until midday tomorrow it looks like. looks like HVN is stuck in the 20s with the nice drainage coming down the valley.

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