Johnno Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mod to hvy right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Everything here covered that first batch was pretty good snows, roads are ugly. Waiting on batch two hoping to get a few inches before it mixes 11-12 late am. Hoping for 2-4 today. Second one down here is dud for my area. Thinking little or no snow from it coating to 2". Boundary is now so close to the coast even though the low redevelops it does so over snj then moves over cape cod. Any snow is good snow but the warming exhibited the last few runs makes me think this one is mostly a goner down my way. I noticed the total snow graphic shows 7.2 here...the cape cod 50% rule brings it home at around 3-4" is my guess two day total. Will enjoy the snows this am though! Even though it often benefits me, I truly hate it when you get screwed...as much work as you put into your analysis it is unfair. Enjoy the front-ender today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I am liking the snow vector. GYX says 1-3 today. I believe it will exceed 3" . Me too, 3-5 is my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 moderate snow, flake size small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Maybe the 2nd half warm up can be pushed back. I'm thinking mid Feb NAO returns and helps us. Logic and climo would say we should warm at some point. History would suggest the -NAO returns. Nina would suggest we finish strong. Who the fook knows....we just have to enjoy what we have this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Moderate snow here, visibility dropping down towards 1/4 mile mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Moderate snow here, visibility dropping down towards 1/4 mile mark Nice to see that 25 dBZ is producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What's your snowcover down there looking like? Solid but nothing like you guys! We had about 6-7 otg after the last system. It compacted that day down to about 5-6 and it's been in that area since despite some warmer days. The bottom 1/3 is concrete, super low ratio stuff so it should hang tough for awhile. I've had essentially uninterrupted snowcover now since pre Christmas...unheard of for this area cannot complain. Hoping today can be a surprise here. Models have all toyed with a secondary qpf max just offshore cape for probably associated with the weak low. Hopin somehow that can get it together in time. I probably am safe until 11 to 1 in terms of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ripping nicely..flake size is fairly small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 S+ at ORH now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Classic snow look to the sky right now. It doesn't get better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Classic snow look to the sky right now. It doesn't get better than this. Domain we are gonna get raked.. off the ledge... how much today you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Quick question. I am guessing virga sublimates on the way down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Domain we are gonna get raked.. off the ledge... how much today you think? Around 6'' give or take, but if we rip S+ fluff like ORH is doing right now for a few hours (as we should) we might come in a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Solid but nothing like you guys! We had about 6-7 otg after the last system. It compacted that day down to about 5-6 and it's been in that area since despite some warmer days. The bottom 1/3 is concrete, super low ratio stuff so it should hang tough for awhile. I've had essentially uninterrupted snowcover now since pre Christmas...unheard of for this area cannot complain. Hoping today can be a surprise here. Models have all toyed with a secondary qpf max just offshore cape for probably associated with the weak low. Hopin somehow that can get it together in time. I probably am safe until 11 to 1 in terms of mixing. You know I was thinking about your location the other day when I was talking with Tim Kelley from NECN. He was saying how his backyard has a decent amount of snow, while his front yard is bare. He lives right on the ocean and says it never snows in his front yard and always snows in his backyard, lol. You can walk 100 yards and the snow multiplies... definitely what you've always been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Quick question. I am guessing virga sublimates on the way down? Virga is snow or rain that evaporates before reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 11/6 SN. Everything coated. Noyes is the only met out of 7 I've looked at/read this morning that thinks sleet/fzra get up to RT 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ski Patroller Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Colebrook, Northwestern CT ... snowing since 5AM, about 2" now and steady. Temp 14.6F and not up much since the snow started. Radar shows dry slot to west is filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You can really see the effect the dry air has on the radar in S VT and Cheshire County right now. Kind of cool. Looks like E NY/W VT has moistened up considerably over the last half our. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You know I was thinking about your location the other day when I was talking with Tim Kelley from NECN. He was saying how his backyard has a decent amount of snow, while his front yard is bare. He lives right on the ocean and says it never snows in his front yard and always snows in his backyard, lol. You can walk 100 yards and the snow multiplies... definitely what you've always been saying. HA! It's true, it's really odd. I have relatives that were on the water in 1978 and said to some extent it was the same thing. I think it's a combination of salt spray acting like a de-icer and just temp differences front to back. For us lately it hasn't mattered. Once it flips it's flipped in entirety but there is a difference between here and back 1/2 mile. I almost always give the measurements IMBY but when there are stark differences I'll let whoever I report to know...IE, I have 2" here but 300 yards west there is 5". Hasn't really happened lately though. Instead the dividing line has been more east to west just south of here around the Canal. -- Going to measure before I have to leave, solid SN/moderate snow. For once I may be in the lead in the snow race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I thought BOX had an A+ forecast discussion by the overnight crew - really well thought out and explained. Agrees well with what Jerry and Scott were thinking for the BOS-ORH corridor. STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTERMIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE AREA MAY INITIALLY REACH THE MA TURNPIKE THIS EVENING...DEEP LIFT AND INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY TEMPORARILY PUSH THE SNOW LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE HARTFORD...TO PROVIDENCE...TO TAUNTON CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES COOLBETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z DESPITE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE LEVEL WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION OF STRONG VERTICAL MOTION YIELDING DYNAMIC COOLING. THE SNOW MAY COME DOWN MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME...BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL WARMING WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET FROM HARTFORD...TO PROVIDENCE...TO TAUNTON CORRIDOR BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM. WE STILL MAY SEE ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCRETION ACROSS A SMALL REGION FROM NORTHERN CT...INTO NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING FOR A VERY SHORT TIME ACROSS THE PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON CORRIDOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OUR BEST ESTIMATE IN SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS FROM FROM THIS SECOND EVENT IS 2 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE MA TURNPIKE. AGAIN...JUST A ONE DEGREE ERROR IN THE 850 TO 750 MB LAYER COULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS BEING A FEW INCHES HIGHER OR LOWER. THIS IS WHY OUR CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS LOW.AS WE GO FURTHER NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MA TURNPIKE WHICH INCLUDES THE BOSTON...TO WORCESTER TO SPRINGFIELD METROPOLITAN AREA THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN IN THIS REGION ITS QUITE TRICKY BECAUSE IT PROBABLY WILL BE SNOWING AT 1 INCH PER HOUR...SO A TRANSITION THAT OCCURS A FEW HOURS EARLIER/LATER THAN EXPECTED CAN RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ACCUMULATION. BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS AND THE INTENSE VERTICAL MOTIONS WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CHANGE TO SLEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY THAT TIME AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...OUR BEST ESTIMATE IF FOR 5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM. WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER NUMBERS IF WE SEE A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SLEET AND ON THE HIGHER END OF THE SPECTRUM IF WE DO NOT. WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN OUR FORECAST FROM ROUTE 2 IN FAR NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL YIELD INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW WHICH WILL LIKELY FALL AT 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS A BIT OF SLEET ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT THE DAMAGE SHOULD HAVE BEEN DONE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SECOND EVENT SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS/MONADNOCKS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES FROM UPSLOPE. ALL IN ALL...DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE MA PIKE TO THE PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON CORRIDOR IT WILL LIKELY BE SNOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE MA TURNPIKE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS TIME...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MESSY MORNING COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ensembles really try to warm it up towards mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Around 6'' give or take, but if we rip S+ fluff like ORH is doing right now for a few hours (as we should) we might come in a bit higher. What's your domain name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm on the southern end of the envelope of heavier precip. and I've been mixing with sleet for the past thirty minutes!!! Visibility is high and obviously snow growth is poor. This is the coldest it's been all season long with snow in the air yet I still can't good snow down here. Kudos to the PVD NBC and ABC affiliates last night. While BOX had 6-8 on its map for Newport these network affiliates lowered totals for me to 1-4 and 1-3. And 5 hours later BOX lowered totals for me down to 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ensembles really try to warm it up towards mid month. Euro and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 About an inch so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What's your domain name? I have no idea where that came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 22/19 light snow/ip .25 down school is closed, and the roads are 100% clear, what a joke, media hype FTL again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro and GFS? Yeah. The move the PV back into western Canada and build se ridging. It might be a gradient pattern which would be nice, but it does have a warmer signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I just cannot keep up with Kev even when it starts here first .7" so far on car tops, roadways, etc. About 1/2 mile in snow now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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