Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Very light snow 17.1/7 4-8 today looks good 50 miles either side of the pike..then we'll figure out part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Box's new map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 6z GFS is awfully wet (more so than the NAM) for event 1 in northern CT to southern NH (cuse me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And GYX's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One last post. UKMET is quite cold. Mostly snow for many of us. I hope it verifies but it is the Crazy Uncle... Locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 10/4,snow. .75" down, Out for a ski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Box's new map. I'll take 13 till the cows come home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'll take that Don. Major dumpage sounds very good. Pete your going to get crushed. I would never openly admit but enough is enough. I'm all for it snowing, love it. Urban area's are not built for this type of snowcover. Put it where it belongs in the woods and backcounrty Round 1 is on doorstep! Sure is quite in here, past years this place would be a buzzing. Surely we are spoiled this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Okay after looking this deal over I think the low ...as modeling goes, is attempting to collapse SE and will probably end up being a NJ shore redeveloper ...which is starting to make sense for me given the magnitude of this polar air. The red flag is the dinking with the once heftier QPF in IL....plus the bump SE with "primary" at 30 hours. Locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'll take 13 till the cows come home I'd be good with it, too. Good luck on all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It''s gonna rip today for awhile AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TIER OF NY...CNTRL/NRN PA...NRN NJ AND WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 010742Z - 011145Z MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. SSWLY LLJ ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ENHANCING A BROAD BAND OF PCPN. THIS PCPN SHIELD SHOULD INTENSIFY FROM CNTRL/NRN PA ENE TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 12Z. 21Z SREF/05Z RUC APPEAR TO IDENTIFY THE DEVELOPING PCPN WELL. WHILE MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS EVENT...THE NRN EDGE OF PCPN...LIKELY ALL SNOW WITH 15-12:1 RATIOS...WILL FALL AT RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN 40-45 NM OF THE PA/NY BORDER INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PEAK 12-15Z AND DIMINISH BY 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wowza the 06z GFS is a disaster for those of us along the pike or between the pike and route 2. Really torches at the mid levels.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't wait for the icestorm of all precip types its the prettiest and deadliest i have no use for it ,actually at this point i have no room for snow thats the only spin i can put on it .I thought i'd never say this but i have no room for snow in the bronx my business yard is jammed up i saw your get together i would've came but 5 hr ride is rediciulous especially to meet some of the ole timers so they can goof on me about blackfishing correlations to winter weather .i think its been a10 yr journey on these boards already minga time flys see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just settling in after looking at the 00z gfs and the first flakes have started snowing lightly up here. Before I delve into the 30 pages that popped up since I went to bed, can anyone give me a thumbnail sketch of how this is going to go--types/qpf? Thanks! 11.2/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just settling in after looking at the 00z gfs and the first flakes have started snowing lightly up here. Before I delve into the 30 pages that popped up since I went to bed, can anyone give me a thumbnail sketch of how this is going to go--types/qpf? Thanks! 11.2/1 Not much has changed. 00z runs buffed up the 1st event a little, but the 06z runs have gone back confortably into the .5" range for much of MA/CT/RI. Main event looks slightly warmer at the mid-levels (but hardly a trend--- the Euro held serve), and looks like some sleet may make it all the way to the NH border. As others have mentioned however, much of the mid-level warming looks to hapen after the best precip is out. This is especially true north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not much has changed. 00z runs buffed up the 1st event a little, but the 06z runs have gone back confortably into the .5" range for much of MA/CT/RI. Main event looks slightly warmer at the mid-levels (but hardly a trend--- the Euro held serve), and looks like some sleet may make it all the way to the NH border. As others have mentioned however, much of the mid-level warming looks to hapen after the best precip is out. This is especially true north of the pike. Good luck to all wrt p-type, qpf and ratios!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Day 8 today of no school in town Steady light snow..paved surfaces covered with a dusting 16.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good snowgrowth today..Big fat fluffy flakes ripping down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Day 8 today of no school in town Steady light snow..paved surfaces covered with a dusting 16.7 Looks like they're doing closures in the south--wimps. In the districts up here (Pete, here, Chris), they're having early dismissals. I wonder what time that is..... Light snow cotninues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like they are pegging the region between north of the Pike to north of Rt 9 in NH as the "jackpot belt"? Overall, looks like they have reduced projected totals a smidge, having removed the spectre of 2' in the warning wording. Regardless, looks like a great system. There's no mention in my p/c nor in the zone for tainting. Haven't looked to see how far south that's been removed from the wording. But that has to bode well for many of us. Suspect ratios will still be hampered in round 2 for just about everyone even w/o sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS has another coastal for the weekend. Not very potent but snowy nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 6z GFS is awfully wet (more so than the NAM) for event 1 in northern CT to southern NH (cuse me). The Euro was nice up here for round 1. 0.25" up to BML and a little 0.50" stripe near the CT/MA border...so we'd be somewhere in between. It throws us some tail end fluff too. A 25:1 fluff topping would really get the snow totals up there. Looks like the EC gets the 1" QPF line up to the Whites and north of BTV. I still think everything needs to go right to get 20", but 12-18" still looks good. The EC ensembles are fairly impressive with the appetizer too.The op is snow to rain/ice verbatim on Saturday...ensembles are all snow. Plenty of time for that one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Channel 22 doesn't like latitude gradients it seems....unlike their competition at channel 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The warning changed a little bit Imby. From 18-24 to 6-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The Euro was nice up here for round 1. 0.25" up to BML and a little 0.50" stripe near the CT/MA border...so we'd be somewhere in between. It throws us some tail end fluff too. A 25:1 fluff topping would really get the snow totals up there. Looks like the EC gets the 1" QPF line up to the Whites and north of BTV. I still think everything needs to go right to get 20", but 12-18" still looks good. The EC ensembles are fairly impressive with the appetizer too. The op is snow to rain/ice verbatim on Saturday...ensembles are all snow. Plenty of time for that one though. Yeah Euro was cooler for Saturday storm last nite than it was at 12z..Still the western outlier..but the fact it cooled..and the ens were cold is good news for a frozen event for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah Euro was cooler for Saturday storm last nite than it was at 12z..Still the western outlier..but the fact it cooled..and the ens were cold is good news for a frozen event for most I was all snow on the 12z run, but it looks like the temp gradient is weaker at 850 than 12z so I can see how it may have cooled for you and not me. Plenty of time for that to trend colder...especially with the ensembles being colder. We're a bit sick to be analyzing the weekend threat with so much snow coming up in the next 2 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like they're doing closures in the south--wimps. In the districts up here (Pete, here, Chris), they're having early dismissals. I wonder what time that is..... Light snow cotninues. In the Boston area, it's so variable. Boston closes at the drop of a hat but Brookline is tougher and Newton is pretty stingy with closure. All of those districts open today. My theory is they'll dismiss early and not have to add an extra day figuring they'll close tomorrow. Epic winter rocks on. Another foot or so on the doorstep. Maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was all snow on the 12z run, but it looks like the temp gradient is weaker at 850 than 12z so I can see how it may have cooled for you and not me. Plenty of time for that to trend colder...especially with the ensembles being colder. We're a bit sick to be analyzing the weekend threat with so much snow coming up in the next 2 days though. LOL...it's never too soon to look ahead to the next one. Snowing light-moderate here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The p-type algorithm for a lot of the 3z SREF members are getting the sleet line very far north, but I think it may be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good luck to all wrt p-type, qpf and ratios!! Best of luck to you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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