free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah they are different models. Not sure what he is arguing. Not that it matters much since its the DGEX. It is a different model when did I agrue that? Ray said the DGEX looks like the gfs...give me a break, the DGEX is using the same boundry conditions as the 0z gfs and they're all run from NCEP, so it's going to be somewhat similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is a different model when did I agrue that? Ray said the DGEX looks like the gfs...give me a break, the DGEX is using the same boundry conditions as the 0z gfs and they're all run from NCEP, so it's going to be somewhat similar. You're wrong; go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah they are different models. Not sure what he is arguing. Not that it matters much since its the DGEX. Yea, the model blows, but it is what is.....just figured I'd throw it out there that it looked similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You're wrong; go to bed. Summary: “DGEX” is an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution – horizontally and vertically – forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections. It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from the previous cycle of the GFS. These LBC’s are applied at every 3 hours between 78 and 174 hr, and every 6 hours between 174 and 192 hrs. Although the process is started at 78 hrs to allow adjustment to the smaller grid, the first time step disseminated to the field is 90 hrs. DGEX is available on AWIPS beginning with OB3.3. Lighten up a little dude. It's basically a ETA/GFS hybrid, always has been. It's going to look like the gfs most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Summary: “DGEX” is an acronym for the Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension. DGEX has been developed as an interim solution to providing high-resolution – horizontally and vertically – forecast guidance for populating the digital forecast database at extended forecast projections. It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from the previous cycle of the GFS. These LBC’s are applied at every 3 hours between 78 and 174 hr, and every 6 hours between 174 and 192 hrs. Although the process is started at 78 hrs to allow adjustment to the smaller grid, the first time step disseminated to the field is 90 hrs. DGEX is available on AWIPS beginning with OB3.3. Lighten up a little dude. ETA and GFS always look identical...got it. 5.1\0 Earthlight is rippin pretty good in Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is a different model when did I agrue that? Ray said the DGEX looks like the gfs...give me a break, the DGEX is using the same boundry conditions as the 0z gfs and they're all run from NCEP, so it's going to be somewhat similar. Using the same boundary conditions doesn't mean the model will look similar. The American WRF is run using GFS boundary conditions and then run out to 30h...and it frequently looks totally different. At any rate, don't want to turn this into a model physics debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Using the same boundary conditions doesn't mean the model will look similar. The American WRF is run using GFS boundary conditions and then run out to 30h...and it frequently looks totally different. At any rate, don't want to turn this into a model physics debate. Not to mention that even if that were the case, the GFS and ETA would always need to be very similar through 78 hrs for what he is saying to have any validity and they do not. The DGEX is crap and the GFS is the 3rd best model.....they do NOT usually look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SREFs a tick warmer again...definitely pinging up to probably Rt 2 or MA/NH border eventually....but its the same general theme of slamming most of the WCB precip prior to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow....EURO is an awful rain storm for Sat...I'd hedge towards it. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 906 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THIS SYSTEM A BIT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 They hugged the either the 12z and\or 18z GFS and are wrong. ...they aren't yet putting much time or effort into that system, understandably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SREFs a tick warmer again...definitely pinging up to probably Rt 2 or MA/NH border eventually....but its the same general theme of slamming most of the WCB precip prior to that. I think they're a hair too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm glad i tossed the NAM from the get go in my forecasts. It's forecasts from as recently as 12z Sun and 00z Mon runs were 5 or more degrees too cold in the boundary layer. It played a slow catch up but man, does that model blow chunks in these types of events. It's been that way since they first started running it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Gotta head out, but good luck to all Wishing you all feet and feet of snow. Especially BIrving since he seemed a little grumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm glad i tossed the NAM from the get go in my forecasts. It's forecasts from as recently as 12z Sun and 00z Mon runs were 5 or more degrees too cold in the boundary layer. It played a slow catch up but man, does that model blow chunks in these types of events. It's been that way since they first started running it, too. Yup.....that one 18z NAM run from yesterday tried to jackpot CT and it was obvious that it was the typical NAM SWFE mode BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 06z NAM is really weak with the first event, especially north of route 2. Nobody gets into .5" territory, unlike the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think they're a hair too warm. They might be...but no way to know any of this until the event unfolds unless we see a big consensus in guidance shift a good 25-40 miles S with the thermal boundaries between now and tomorrow night. I think the models are starting to see a more amped up plains system...so they are ticking a shade warmer, but it won't surprise me once they "see" the arctic air mass a bit better too in the final 24h, that it could tick back slightly colder again. We expected a big battle between that awesome high to the north and the plains system and we'll get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Gotta head out, but good luck to all Wishing you all feet and feet of snow. Especially BIrving since he seemed a little grumpy Not grumpy at all. Hoping for sleet and zr here, snow is a nusciance. Looking better and better as we get closer. This post is MRG approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 They might be...but no way to know any of this until the event unfolds unless we see a big consensus in guidance shift a good 25-40 miles S with the thermal boundaries between now and tomorrow night. I think the models are starting to see a more amped up plains system...so they are ticking a shade warmer, but it won't surprise me once they "see" the arctic air mass a bit better too in the final 24h, that it could tick back slightly colder again. We expected a big battle between that awesome high to the north and the plains system and we'll get it. The bottom line is that the best course of action was to draw upon your swfe climo knowledge base and put forth an idea early and stick to it, as opposed to waffling with each model run....I still feel that in the end, the large gradient will be right near the pike. 00z suite didn't really trend warmer.....imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Also - this is just an aside - has anyone checked out the radar returns in south-central TX? There is just this massive blob of 50+ DBZ returns just east of San Angelo. Crazy stuff - especially since it is all falling as rain at 28-30 degrees it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Also - this is just an aside - has anyone checked out the radar returns in south-central TX? There is just this massive blob of 50+ DBZ returns just east of San Angelo. Crazy stuff - especially since it is all falling as rain at 28-30 degrees it seems like. none of it is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 none of it is sleet Looks like someone needs to call it a day. Yes - I supposed there is sleet as well, especially in the western edge of the precip. I was going by the ground reports in Brownwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM looks a bit colder, but it sucks on QPF relative to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like someone needs to call it a day. Yes - I supposed there is sleet as well, especially in the western edge of the precip. I was going by the ground reports in Brownwood. That is a pretty nice obs. 30 degrees, TS+, N wind G 40kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM still only gets the H85 line to N CT....but it's realizing that this is a swfe and cutting it's QPF. Nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I only get about 0.8" before I go to Sleet and ZR per the NAM. It seems to like this Storm Cancel solution South of the CT?MA, RI/MA border. Where's the 00z MM5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 10/4, sn, looking good for thump #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 call me curious, but how does Gray's total snow map have only 12 for concord, when it's getting 3-6 Today and 10-14 on Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looking like a very tight gradiant on snowfall. Those that stay all snow, BURIED. Drawing line approx coasal MA/NH border to tri-border of MA/CT/NY is what I'm thinking ZR/IP. Leaning toward heavy sleetfest to south and major dumpage north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looking like a very tight gradiant on snowfall. Those that stay all snow, BURIED. Drawing line approx coasal MA/NH border to tri-border of MA/CT/NY is what I'm thinking ZR/IP. Leaning toward heavy sleetfest to south and major dumpage north. I'll take that Don. Major dumpage sounds very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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