JJBASHB Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I definitely think it's smart to at least mention this potential but also explain it's not guaranteed. What makes the ice potential worse here is the fact that we are getting several inches of snow prior...as much as 4-7'' possible and this snow will be more on the wet than dry side. Plus we already have a ton of snow on the ground and roofs and adding even more plus ice would certainly increase the weight. Normally I probably wouldn't be concerned over this icing but given what will happen beforehand and given what we have now with weakened structures I think this could have a much higher impact than normal. Exactly, the potential impacts are significant enough to warrant some mention. and that much better for the RT 2... uhm crowd. (cue chirping crickets) It's looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 G'night and good luck all. I'll be up around sunrise to check the sky, the radar and then the models. I better get some sleep tonight b/c likely to up even later tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like i'm in the PL for sure 3 miles S of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EURO matches up VERY well with the NAM thermal profiles, but the GFS is a bit warmer..... I'd go high res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow....EURO is an awful rain storm for Sat...I'd hedge towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow....EURO is an awful rain storm for Sat...I'd hedge towards it. Wheres the extent of r/s line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wheres the extent of r/s line I really wouldn't worry about that this far out dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wheres the extent of r/s line Near your school lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Near your school lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Near your school lol Bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like i'm in the PL for sure 3 miles S of the Pike. Im hoping tomorrow overperforms and then see what round 2 looks like for us here, maybe we can hang onto the snow a little longer through the heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Unless this hp is still in the process of building in..I am not overly impressed with it so far for interior sne...it was warmer than i thought it would have been yesterday. Unless this hp is going to strenglhen enough to push the lp out west to the south east is the only thing I can think of saving my area from a ton of sleet.. several hours ago I was starting to feel better with all the foot plus forecasts for my area and better snow forecast for the n half of ct..but now seems like that is all very shaky once again. i wish the pressures over my area were still rising a bit more and not oscillating already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well it doesn't seem the HPC is too concerned for any major icing here Pretty cool thing to toggle around with http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_zr.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 also with the deep snow pack in place i am surprised how mild it got over the past two days in general. When i think of true arctic hp i think of dps well below zero. I dont like all this warmth for the weekend and beyond either. I know it may snow this weekend but sounds like a wet snow best case scenario for my area and that never really plays out that well in the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Scratch that actually...this is the first time I've used these graphics so I'm adjusting but Prob of 0.25'' or > Prob of 0.50'' or > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 G'night and good luck all. I'll be up around sunrise to check the bic, the bong, the sky, the radar and then the models. I better get some sleep tonight b/c likely to up even later tomorrow night. g'nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well I am definitely off to bed, losing valuable sleeping time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Bleh We are due for an absolute stink-bomb of a rainer....we haven't had one all winter, so it's tough to complain that this one is going to be one....I'm sure Kev will wake up and try to portray this as an elevation icer.....but it's not. Verbatim, it starts as ice across the interior, but it shouldn't last long. Clear your storm drains, this week. GFS is a hit and the EURO is locking on rain....pattern has relaxed....this one is down the drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We are due for an absolute stink-bomb of a rainer....we haven't had one all winter, so it's tough to complain that this one is going to be one....I'm sure Kev will wake up and try to portray this as an elevation icer.....but it's not. Verbatim, there isn't ice anywhere in sne, but what would probably happen is n ORH CO and w MA would start as some ice, but it wouldn't last long. Clear your storm drains, this week. GFS is a hit and the EURO is locking on rain....pattern has relaxed....this one is down the drain. LOL the models have sucked 2 days out, are you seriously locking something in almost a week prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like we get a mild thaw starting with the rainer on Sat night-Tuesday, then it's back to cold....shouldn't be a '96 like disaster, so if that is the worst of it, sign me up.....I'd still prob have over a foot of cement left after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LOL the models have sucked 2 days out, are you seriously locking something in almost a week prior? Yes.....it's a gut feeling and it's not close on the EURO......it's comfortably rain.....are you seriously locking in nothing but snow storms until April.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I will say that the EURO is an outlier.....the UK is just outside the BM, the DGEX looks like the GFS and the GEM looks to go near CC. I think at least the cp will end up with mainly rain, anyway. I'm out. 5.0\0 2' snowpack is ready to be refreshed by 12-18" more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The dgex IS the gfs in part, downscaled gfs by NAM ext Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The dgex IS the gfs in part. I understand that, but what is your point.....it's the NAM extrapolated on GFS parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 number one next weekend is not rain storm but snowstorm . i say inland ct will have over 12 inches of snow by wed or between 12 - 19 iinches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I understand that, but what is your point.....it's the NAM extrapolated on GFS parameters. You said the DGEX looks like the gfs...maybe it's getting a little late for you , and I just woke up...snow is white too, I hear lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You said the DGEX looks like the gfs...maybe it's getting a little late for you , and I just woke up...snow is white too, I hear lol Yes and since it's a different model, it was noteworthy....you clearly can't wrap your mind around the fact they are different models, despite the fact that it's run on GFS parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yes and since it's a different model, it was noteworthy....you clearly can't wrap your mind around the fact they are different models, despite the fact that it's run on GFS parameters. yeah, Ray...g'nite lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yeah, Ray...g'nite lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yes and since it's a different model, it was noteworthy....you clearly can't wrap your mind around the fact they are different models, despite the fact that it's run on GFS parameters. Yeah they are different models. Not sure what he is arguing. Not that it matters much since its the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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