weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The last major ice storm to affect the area had very heavy precip rates. Sure, it slows accretion rates but heavy precip != no ice storm. It's not like temps are like 30F or 31F either...sfc temps will be quite cold and the sfc is extremely cold as is everything. But I mean this ice threat is no where locked in yet but the potential does certainly exist and certainly should not be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I just find it tough to believe that with really heavy rates and fast fall velocities that this is going to be a major ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Jeezuz, you're colder than me and I'm in an elevated valley location. 8.5/1 5.8\-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I believe with heavier rainfall rates more latent heat is released making it more difficult for ice to accumulate. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I just find it tough to believe that with really heavy rates and fast fall velocities that this is going to be a major ice storm! Right now I would think 0.25'' to 0.50'' would certainly be possible...totals closer to 0.25'' wouldn't lead to much of an impact (isolated power outages and such) but once you get closer to 0.50'' that could be a different story...I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility of 0.50'' to 0.75'' either...which if that happens would obviously be more in the way of high impact. Even with intense rates the rain should have no problem freezing fairly quickly given how cold we are. I'm not saying this is a lock to happen but I'm not discounting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 IP already mixing with light snow in and around the nyc metro, waa is just cruising in, in the mid levels Yea, it will fly until it hits the pike on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I believe with heavier rainfall rates more latent heat is released making it more difficult for ice to accumulate. I could be wrong. I've heard that before, but don't know how much truth it holds, but that's probably one of the reasons we don't see much accretion typically with these faster precipitation rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Other than the ice for Wednesday, there is a pretty sick temperature contrast going on in SNE and especially in CT. Places near the shoreline are in the low 20s, while parts of N. Connecticut are around 10F with Chicopee, Mass already down to 4F. This could enhance snowfall around the N. CT area for tomorrow's event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EURO looks to have come in a bit more potent and further N with RD 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 5.8\-1 There is some arctic air in place. I drove from Northampton to Greenfield at 11:30 and the temp was 19 there and 9 when I got home. (24 miles.) I can see why the sleet line probably stays Ma. Pike or south. If it makes it to you or I it is only briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FWIW - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Much Much better than the GFS and NAM if it was believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's not like temps are like 30F or 31F either...sfc temps will be quite cold and the sfc is extremely cold as is everything. But I mean this ice threat is no where locked in yet but the potential does certainly exist and certainly should not be ignored. No doubt, it's hard to hedge one way or the other (ice or no ice) since major ice occurs under rare circumstances. Due to the potential impacts it pays to err on the side of caution. Latent heat can be overcome by evaporation cooling. In 08 we had dryer air trying to advect in from Maine which kept dew points a degree or two lower than the air temperature. It actually warmed from the upper 20's to low 30's during the height of the storm but it took until morning to reach freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The radar's blossoming from the Tappan Zee Bridge on eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EURO coming in a little colder for RD II....H85 line makes it a pube s of the MA\CT\RI borders...slett prob kisses the pike....looks juicier in W MA, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FWIW - http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Much Much better than the GFS and NAM if it was believable. Id like to see that come to pass, usually that model is warmer and gives me rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 No doubt, it's hard to hedge one way or the other (ice or no ice) since major ice occurs under rare circumstances. Due to the potential impacts it pays to err on the side of caution. Latent heat can be overcome by evaporation cooling. In 08 we had dryer air trying to advect in from Maine which kept dew points a degree or two lower than air temperature. I definitely think it's smart to at least mention this potential but also explain it's not guaranteed. What makes the ice potential worse here is the fact that we are getting several inches of snow prior...as much as 4-7'' possible and this snow will be more on the wet than dry side. Plus we already have a ton of snow on the ground and roofs and adding even more plus ice would certainly increase the weight. Normally I probably wouldn't be concerned over this icing but given what will happen beforehand and given what we have now with weakened structures I think this could have a much higher impact than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EURO coming in a little colder for RD II....H85 line makes it a pube s of the MA\CT\RI borders...slett prob kisses the pike....looks juicier in W MA, too. So wetter and more potent round 1 & colder and more potent in w. mass round 2? Lots to like there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EURO coming in a little colder for RD II....H85 line makes it a pube s of the MA\CT\RI borders...slett prob kisses the pike....looks juicier in W MA, too. Does it have more of an IP look than ZR look to you...might be hard to answer...not sure what kind of data you have available to you...can you view temp profiles and such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EURO coming in a little colder for RD II....H85 line makes it a pube s of the MA\CT\RI borders...slett prob kisses the pike....looks juicier in W MA, too. Thanks for the Euro updates! Ha, based on other models I'm not sure how much juicier W. Ma. needs to get but will gladly take it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So wetter and more potent round 1 & colder and more potent in w. mass round 2? Lots to like there... Yea, obviously this close in, these aren't large changes....but you'd always rather see it for the better than the worse. Important trend for the pike crowd, though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yea, obviously this close in, these aren't large changes....but you'd always rather see it for the better than the worse. Important trend for the pike crowd, though.... So parts of CT stay mostly snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yea, obviously this close in, these aren't large changes....but you'd always rather see it for the better than the worse. Important trend for the pike crowd, though.... and that much better for the RT 2... uhm crowd. (cue chirping crickets) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does it have more of an IP look than ZR look to you...might be hard to answer...not sure what kind of data you have available to you...can you view temp profiles and such? Just interpret it as a little colder than the 12z EURO....it shifted everything s like 15 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just interpret as a little colder than the 12z EURO....it shifted everything s like 15 miles. Which often is not a big deal but in this type of set up it really can be for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So parts of CT stay mostly snow? No, but everywhere probably holds onto snow for a couple of hrs longer than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just interpret it as a little colder than the 12z EURO....it shifted everything s like 15 miles. Got it..great way to put it, thanks. Definitely not on the icing threat then...going to be real interesting here. Off to sleep, wake up at 8 AM...starting tomorrow probably no sleep until late Wednesday night or early Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Got it..great way to put it, thanks. Definitely not on the icing threat then...going to be real interesting here. Off to sleep, wake up at 8 AM...starting tomorrow probably no sleep until late Wednesday night or early Thursday. EURO looks similar to the gfs temp profiles for CT, but the GFS is warmer in E MA.......GFS is juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does it have more of an IP look than ZR look to you...might be hard to answer...not sure what kind of data you have available to you...can you view temp profiles and such? youre write ups seem pretty good but I was bummed to see you back off on snow accums for northern ct and southern ma..so only four to seven with the first push? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EURO looks similar to the gfs tem profiles for CT, but it's warmer in E MA.......GFS is juicier. uh-oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 youre write ups seem pretty good but I was bummed to see you back off on snow accums for northern ct and southern ma..so only four to seven with the first push? Thank you. I backed off going from 8-12'' down to 6-10''. I still think a good 4-7'' with the first push, it's just the second push I have worries about how much we get from that...I may have to actually go back and maybe include parts of MA that I have in the 6-10'' zone and have them closer to a foot but this is all dependent on where that pesky warm layer sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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