dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sam, are you in EEN for this one? More for us this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Okay after looking this deal over I think the low ...as modeling goes, is attempting to collapse SE and will probably end up being a NJ shore redeveloper ...which is starting to make sense for me given the magnitude of this polar air. The red flag is the dinking with the once heftier QPF in IL....plus the bump SE with "primary" at 30 hours. THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 More for us this weekend. Where are we to put it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Okay after looking this deal over I think the low ...as modeling goes, is attempting to collapse SE and will probably end up being a NJ shore redeveloper ...which is starting to make sense for me given the magnitude of this polar air. The red flag is the dinking with the once heftier QPF in IL....plus the bump SE with "primary" at 30 hours. I've been thinking/saying southern/southeastern shore of NJ for a day or so. Not sure what you mean by dinking...one trend I see out there is that the mega 2" QPF is now being cut in two with a secondary max to the SE a few hundred miles. I think we'll get a lock tomorrow am with the 12z, been the case all winter that once we got the s/w's out of Mexico and across the border things settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 More for us this weekend. LOL that was a short stinking nap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice 2 day event. I'm calling Tuesday 6-10, Wed 6-8. Tuesday is the snowy event but Wed should thump big time for several hours before PL/dry slot invades. Nice OES 2-3 inch finish ala 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 looks like we might get another good dumoing this weekend this winter is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LOL that was a short stinking nap I'm on the phone with the "wife" before bed. All I could think about is that the GFS was out past the storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've been thinking/saying southern/southeastern shore of NJ for a day or so. Not sure what you mean by dinking...one trend I see out there is that the mega 2" QPF is now being cut in two with a secondary max to the SE a few hundred miles. I think we'll get a lock tomorrow am with the 12z, been the case all winter that once we got the s/w's out of Mexico and across the border things settled. Thought of you when I read Tip's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice 2 day event. I'm calling Tuesday 6-10, Wed 6-8. Tuesday is the snowy event but Wed should thump big time for several hours before PL/dry slot invades. Nice OES 2-3 inch finish ala 1994. I've got 5-7'' tomorrow and 8-12'' on Wednesday...somewhere between one to two feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sam, are you in EEN for this one? No I'm in Plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 He'd be better of closer to the ocean than in that armit of a valley. ....I almost always beat him. 18-24" for ray, southern jackpot area for the storm - flirts with IP but never flips. The QPF on these runs is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 No I'm in Plymouth You should still get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Oh and I can't even get good pictures anymore if I go home this weekend, because my mom said that she knocked down the piles along the driveway!! I'm wicked mad at her I'm going to have the greatest snow depth since 2001, but my mom reduced its potential epic-ness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM gives me 1.66" and a bit of sleet as it's winding down and the GFS gives me about 1.5"...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18-24" for ray, southern jackpot area for the storm - flirts with IP but never flips. The QPF on these runs is off the charts. Ready for 10 tomorrow? Could happen. Then 6-8 Wed? Welcome to January 1994....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You should still get hammered. As I imagine most people will on campus tomorrow night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM gives me 1.66" and a bit of sleet as it's winding down and the GFS gives me about 1.5"...I'll take it. Lol, well I'd hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18-24" for ray, southern jackpot area for the storm - flirts with IP but never flips. The QPF on these runs is off the charts. I agree I won't see the ip, but staying with 12-18":.....too progressive...that huge shot on Wed is in and out like a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM gives me 1.66" and a bit of sleet as it's winding down and the GFS gives me about 1.5"...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ok....out for a pre-storm survey of the snowpack....any guesses what my ave will be, let 'em fly....be back in about 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I agree I won't see the ip, but staying with 12-18":.....too progressive...that huge shot on Wed is in and out like a shot. I think you might see IP at the very end near the dryslot like 12/16/07 did. Only difference is the sfc low tracks much further SE so you don't get any wrong-side CF taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think you might see IP at the very end near the dryslot like 12/16/07 did. Only difference is the sfc low tracks much further SE so you don't get any wrong-side CF taint. This looks much closer to 1/7-8, 1994 vs 12/16/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM looks pretty icy for SFZ...800mb temperature is over 3C at 42 and 45 hours peaking at 3.6C and the above freezing layer is over 100mb deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Pete Bouchard on channel 7 buys the NAM, Harvey on channel 5 says not so fast, goes with a colder solution, WBZ 4 sticks with the NAM. So who do you trust. I think Harvey is onto something. Pete was always a NAM hugger, WBZ4 is trying to play catch-up. we'll see how it goes. tomorrows noon models will be very important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I agree I won't see the ip, but staying with 12-18":.....too progressive...that huge shot on Wed is in and out like a shot. Reasonable. I think I stay all snow as well. coudl be some sleet tomorrow af'noon, but shouldn't cut back much if any on totals. What do you think our chances are of 36" snowpack, 40"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I agree I won't see the ip, but staying with 12-18":.....too progressive...that huge shot on Wed is in and out like a shot. I've got my sights set on a 1/12/11 redux...about 17-18'' give or take. Whether that's right or not we shall see, but it seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This looks much closer to 1/7-8, 1994 vs 12/16/07. I showed you the NCDC storm event summary, very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 a little more snow saturday...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This looks much closer to 1/7-8, 1994 vs 12/16/07. Well we briefly tainted in that one too IIRC. I was mostly pointing out that I think the sleet probably wouldn't happen until near the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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