ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 box updated there snowfall map at 1016 but it doesnt look like it changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ASH is on the CP...the CP doesn't have to mean on the water...it just means the lower elevations E of the interior hills leading to the coast. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Somehwere between 36 and 42 you flip to sleet but you alread have 1+ plus down plus it is intense, I will take this in a heartbeat. Nice 1' really? nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm astounded to come back from an evening out to over 1.7" liq eguiv offered at BOS here... Circa FIT-me in Ayer-BED down to ORH have a real shot at 18+" here. Could be really nice in that region for sure., esp LWM-FIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Pete with 2 inches down by 48, big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lol thanks! I'm pretty confident s big ice storm is unlikely. It's dealing with snow vs sleet now This looks more like ZR potential...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 well the new guy on channel 8 is officially out of his mind if he made that map.. first of all its circular with the central shore getting more than western shore second of all im just shocked by what i saw.. ct shoreline all the way down through nyc and long island 8-12" central 10-14" extreme north and all of litchfield 12-16" one of the worst forecasts ive ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LOL, that's been heavy in my thoughts. What a tight rope. I guess the one thing I like seeing is that the "warm" layer seems to only get to 0.8 to 1C. I know that may be a little on the warm side, but some of that can be overcome I think. One thing I feel decent about is that even if it pings, a majority of the precip will already have fallen. It looks like on the sounding at 42h, it just went over to pellets, and not a whole lot falls after that. I think there's a good chance at a couple inches of fluff on Wed night. The snow growth region gets very tall and there's a nice LL convergence zone over the region with mid-levels re-saturating as the ULL tracks near or just S. 12/20/08 showed similar ll convergence with good rh in midlevels but qpf was paltry on models...some gave a tenth, but most didn't even give more than .05 but we saw the snow all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thank you. You should be pretty happy right now, overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hey...don't bash the CP. What's your total this year meat? He'd be better of closer to the ocean than in that armit of a valley. ....I almost always beat him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Pete with 2 inches down by 48, big winter. QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah this thing has a sh*tload of warmth. Probably why we see such substantial 6hr qpf on Wednesday. Tremendous WAA. yeah very classic struggle of outgoing cold vs. incoming warmth. so many different things to factor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You should be pretty happy right now, overall. Why...were the 00z NAM and GFS better.....just got home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 well the new guy on channel 8 is officially out of his mind if he made that map.. first of all its circular with the central shore getting more than western shore second of all im just shocked by what i saw.. shoreline 8-12" central 10-14" extreme north and all of litchfield 12-16" one of the worst forecasts ive ever seen Now you understand why I posted what I posted. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 QPF? Duh, get some sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS drops the 1.5'' bomb here to go along with the SREF and NAM. Crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 well i'm out...should be an entertaining day tomorrow. if this trends any warmer aloft, i might get the same amount of snow as kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 well the new guy on channel 8 is officially out of his mind if he made that map.. first of all its circular with the central shore getting more than western shore second of all im just shocked by what i saw.. shoreline 8-12" central 10-14" extreme north and all of litchfield 12-16" one of the worst forecasts ive ever seen Maybe a hype the storm to bring back viewers from the Geoff Fox fiasco....They get their first forecasts at 10ish on their other station and then can re-air the are you kidding me did I just see that forecast, for people to tune in at 11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One thing I feel decent about is that even if it pings, a majority of the precip will already have fallen. It looks like on the sounding at 42h, it just went over to pellets, and not a whole lot falls after that. I think there's a good chance at a couple inches of fluff on Wed night. The snow growth region gets very tall and there's a nice LL convergence zone over the region with mid-levels re-saturating as the ULL tracks near or just S. 12/20/08 showed similar ll convergence with good rh in midlevels but qpf was paltry on models...some gave a tenth, but most didn't even give more than .05 but we saw the snow all day. That's what I'm banking on for now, a little taint shortly before the omega bomb ends. Most of that hopefully is snow. The Wednesday night thing is interesting for the reasons you mentioned. I like the trough hangback along the south coast as the ULL moves through. Could be 0.75 to 2.0sm type fluffy light snow that adds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why...were the 00z NAM and GFS better.....just got home. No not really, I'm referring to your location. Anyways I'm out. Good luck folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Duh, get some sleep Holy Smoked!! yeah, time to crash, trying to do 3 things at once and failing. I'll go to sleep with visions of 40db bands in my head, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Now you understand why I posted what I posted. Thank you. im sorry i was giving him the benefit of the doubt.,. its the ugliest thing ive ever seen.. if he made that map he will be fired soon.. or hes just smarter than us all and will get the last laugh.. but i doubt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So looks like consensus is about 1.4-1.5'' QPF. Good ratios for about 1/3 of that. Probably a similar total to 1/12/11 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The purple headed weenie monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is screaming in here, or is it radar hallucinations? Upton is already filling in. I don't care if 8" or 20" no difference. No friggin place to put it. Tricks will be played out. Good nowcast forsure.. MBY #1 - 5" #2 - 10" Oh my aching back. Anybody in area know of someone who plows and willing to help weenie in need of saving back? HELP please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 im sorry i was giving him the benefit of the doubt.,. its the ugliest thing ive ever seen.. if he made that map he will be fired soon.. or hes just smarter than us all and will get the last laugh.. but i doubt that I understand. I couldn't believe it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Okay after looking this deal over I think the low ...as modeling goes, is attempting to collapse SE and will probably end up being a NJ shore redeveloper ...which is starting to make sense for me given the magnitude of this polar air. The red flag is the dinking with the once heftier QPF in IL....plus the bump SE with "primary" at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah this thing has a sh*tload of warmth. Probably why we see such substantial 6hr qpf on Wednesday. Tremendous WAA. It's another interesting run for sure. Really a shame the redevelopment is so lame until after it gets passed us, doesnt allow for much cooling. A nightmare forecast situation for the big pop centers this time IMO. When it's all seven people on the Cape under the waivering 0c lines no big deal, when its the big cities...better hope the margin of error is a lot less than it's been here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sam, are you in EEN for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is screaming in here, or is it radar hallucinations? Upton is already filling in. I don't care if 8" or 20" no difference. No friggin place to put it. Tricks will be played out. Good nowcast forsure.. MBY #1 - 5" #2 - 10" Oh my aching back. Anybody in area know of someone who plows and willing to help weenie in need of saving back? HELP please! Hire a kid, give him weenies for lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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