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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part V


Baroclinic Zone

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well the new guy on channel 8 is officially out of his mind if he made that map.. first of all its circular with the central shore getting more than western shore second of all im just shocked by what i saw..

ct shoreline all the way down through nyc and long island 8-12"

central 10-14"

extreme north and all of litchfield 12-16"

one of the worst forecasts ive ever seen

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LOL, that's been heavy in my thoughts. What a tight rope. I guess the one thing I like seeing is that the "warm" layer seems to only get to 0.8 to 1C. I know that may be a little on the warm side, but some of that can be overcome I think.

One thing I feel decent about is that even if it pings, a majority of the precip will already have fallen. It looks like on the sounding at 42h, it just went over to pellets, and not a whole lot falls after that.

I think there's a good chance at a couple inches of fluff on Wed night. The snow growth region gets very tall and there's a nice LL convergence zone over the region with mid-levels re-saturating as the ULL tracks near or just S. 12/20/08 showed similar ll convergence with good rh in midlevels but qpf was paltry on models...some gave a tenth, but most didn't even give more than .05 but we saw the snow all day.

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well the new guy on channel 8 is officially out of his mind if he made that map.. first of all its circular with the central shore getting more than western shore second of all im just shocked by what i saw..

shoreline 8-12"

central 10-14"

extreme north and all of litchfield 12-16"

one of the worst forecasts ive ever seen

Now you understand why I posted what I posted. Thank you.

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well the new guy on channel 8 is officially out of his mind if he made that map.. first of all its circular with the central shore getting more than western shore second of all im just shocked by what i saw..

shoreline 8-12"

central 10-14"

extreme north and all of litchfield 12-16"

one of the worst forecasts ive ever seen

Maybe a hype the storm to bring back viewers from the Geoff Fox fiasco....They get their first forecasts at 10ish on their other station and then can re-air the are you kidding me did I just see that forecast, for people to tune in at 11?

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One thing I feel decent about is that even if it pings, a majority of the precip will already have fallen. It looks like on the sounding at 42h, it just went over to pellets, and not a whole lot falls after that.

I think there's a good chance at a couple inches of fluff on Wed night. The snow growth region gets very tall and there's a nice LL convergence zone over the region with mid-levels re-saturating as the ULL tracks near or just S. 12/20/08 showed similar ll convergence with good rh in midlevels but qpf was paltry on models...some gave a tenth, but most didn't even give more than .05 but we saw the snow all day.

That's what I'm banking on for now, a little taint shortly before the omega bomb ends. Most of that hopefully is snow.

The Wednesday night thing is interesting for the reasons you mentioned. I like the trough hangback along the south coast as the ULL moves through. Could be 0.75 to 2.0sm type fluffy light snow that adds up.

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This is screaming in here, or is it radar hallucinations? Upton is already filling in. I don't care if 8" or 20" no difference. No friggin place to put it. Tricks will be played out. Good nowcast forsure.. MBY #1 - 5" #2 - 10" Oh my aching back.

Anybody in area know of someone who plows and willing to help weenie in need of saving back?

HELP please!

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Okay after looking this deal over I think the low ...as modeling goes, is attempting to collapse SE and will probably end up being a NJ shore redeveloper ...which is starting to make sense for me given the magnitude of this polar air. The red flag is the dinking with the once heftier QPF in IL....plus the bump SE with "primary" at 30 hours.

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Yeah this thing has a sh*tload of warmth. Probably why we see such substantial 6hr qpf on Wednesday. Tremendous WAA.

It's another interesting run for sure. Really a shame the redevelopment is so lame until after it gets passed us, doesnt allow for much cooling.

A nightmare forecast situation for the big pop centers this time IMO. When it's all seven people on the Cape under the waivering 0c lines no big deal, when its the big cities...better hope the margin of error is a lot less than it's been here.

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This is screaming in here, or is it radar hallucinations? Upton is already filling in. I don't care if 8" or 20" no difference. No friggin place to put it. Tricks will be played out. Good nowcast forsure.. MBY #1 - 5" #2 - 10" Oh my aching back.

Anybody in area know of someone who plows and willing to help weenie in need of saving back?

HELP please!

Hire a kid, give him weenies for lunch

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