ROOSTA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here's what I'm thinking 2"-5" coastal CT / RI / S Coast Mass (EWB) / Cape Cod 5"-8" central CT (HFD/IJD) / Central RI (PVD) / Southeast Mass (PYM/GHG) 8"-12" far northern CT (BDL?) / far northern RI / Areas south of Pike incluindg Springfield, OWD, etc 12"-18" Massachusetts along and north of Pike and up into S NH/S VT Specifially: BDR - 3" HFD - 6" BDL - 8" CEF - 10" PVD - 6" BOS - 12" ORH - 13" The rest of our qpf being IP or ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sweet. Bullish on the first event. I like. I was thinking: 4-7, 9-12. I like yours better Thanks. I'm typically not too bullish either- but I feel like we'll really crank with some decent ratios tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice, no ice then?, still thinking how much water can this area take, thats another 1.25 to 1.5 in the pack. lots of pingers for us but I don't think major ice right now unless things start trending warmer in mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here's what I'm thinking 2"-5" coastal CT / RI / S Coast Mass (EWB) / Cape Cod 5"-8" central CT (HFD/IJD) / Central RI (PVD) / Southeast Mass (PYM/GHG) 8"-12" far northern CT (BDL?) / far northern RI / Areas south of Pike incluindg Springfield, OWD, etc 12"-18" Massachusetts along and north of Pike and up into S NH/S VT Specifially: BDR - 3" HFD - 6" BDL - 8" CEF - 10" PVD - 6" BOS - 12" ORH - 13" Totals, Tues-Thurs? Sounds reasonable and un-weenie-ish Sleet/zr issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What does NAM BUFKIT look like @ DXR Paul? Do we change to plain rain? No DXR but for BDR it has snow to ZR for round 1 then round 2 some snow then IP then ZR then plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hopefully round one doesn't last too too long. I want to have ample time to measure and reset the area before the main show. And of course never measure on grass, because the air bubbles underneath the snow may inflate the total. Experiance talking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Totals, Tues-Thurs? Sounds reasonable and un-weenie-ish Sleet/zr issues? yeah those are totals. I think lots of people ping... even north of the pike but once you get north of 90 it won't cut back too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 you think it taints up there? the speed of this thing is amazing. look how far the dryslot advances between 18z and 00z. wonder if you get almost everything in as snow before you have to worry about warming. I'm thinking I could near the end anyways. Like you said, it may not matter too much. The DS could be here just after 18z Wednesday perhaps. I'm liking the big lift around 15-18z. Could be an epic battle as WAA tries to shoot north, but overall..I don't think the situation has changed all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I discovered what Kev has been doing when we think he is sleeping... He works in Methuen at the Loop mall... http://www1.whdh.com...all-in-methuen/ LOL- That's 5 minutes from me. I was there on Saturday night for a movie... pretty awesome stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm thinking I could near the end anyways. Like you said, it may not matter too much. The DS could be here just after 18z Wednesday perhaps. I'm liking the big lift around 15-18z. Could be an epic battle as WAA tries to shoot north, but overall..I don't think the situation has changed all that much. what are you t hinking for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Andy's (wx4cast) station chuckin' em. Going for 15-30" totals. Saying any mixing with sleet will be brief and do little to knock down totals. Cap and Andy are top flight when it comes to forcasting the Berks/SVT. Here's their take on rd1. Lines up well with Box's current forecast as well. Calling for 12+ with rd. 2. Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm thinking I could near the end anyways. Like you said, it may not matter too much. The DS could be here just after 18z Wednesday perhaps. I'm liking the big lift around 15-18z. Could be an epic battle as WAA tries to shoot north, but overall..I don't think the situation has changed all that much. People locally don't realize how much we're getting tomorrow. I was banging that drum all day and no one listened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like about 1.5 inches of QPF for PSF for the two events. Looks like about 99% snow for here verbatim on the 00Z NAM per the soundings. Maybe a few pingers as the dry slot comes in here by 18Z Wednesday. Looking like my call from earlier was probably a bit too cold, as it does appear the pingers will raid areas south of the Pike. Real tricky scenario as we will be doing battle between the mid-level WAA and the dynamic and diabatic cooling from the heavy omega and precip. As is often the case in SWFEs, the jackpot will likely occur just above the northernmost point of the sleet line in the area that stays all snow and sees the heaviest QPF. It's possible a secondary max may occur a bit further north in VT, NH, and ME where there are better ratios from deformation and frontogenesis, even though QPF is a bit less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ryan, Did you see the 0z NAM bufkit for HFD...pretty crazy...it flips us to IP around 3:00 PM tomorrow and we finish off round 1 as sleet. Then for round 2 we start off as moderate snow for a few hours then go over to IP, then ZR, then plain rain (LOL) for 5 hours or so then back to ZR. Going to be a mess figuring this one out. I think the clown map might have me in the 12 inch range, Bufkit looks pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LOL- That's 5 minutes from me. I was there on Saturday night for a movie... pretty awesome stuff We aren't that far apart. I live right of Exit 3 off of 213, up in North Eastern Methuen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ryan, Did you see the 0z NAM bufkit for HFD...pretty crazy...it flips us to IP around 3:00 PM tomorrow and we finish off round 1 as sleet. Then for round 2 we start off as moderate snow for a few hours then go over to IP, then ZR, then plain rain (LOL) for 5 hours or so then back to ZR. Going to be a mess figuring this one out. could be a sign of a good amount of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Here's what I'm thinking 2"-5" coastal CT / RI / S Coast Mass (EWB) / Cape Cod 5"-8" central CT (HFD/IJD) / Central RI (PVD) / Southeast Mass (PYM/GHG) 8"-12" far northern CT (BDL?) / far northern RI / Areas south of Pike incluindg Springfield, OWD, etc 12"-18" Massachusetts along and north of Pike and up into S NH/S VT Specifially: BDR - 3" HFD - 6" BDL - 8" CEF - 10" PVD - 6" BOS - 12" ORH - 13" ok great that is for storm 1 how about storm 2 on wed . local tv mets said tonight that we get 4 to 8 tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like about 1.5 inches of QPF for PSF for the two events. Looks like about 99% snow for here verbatim on the 00Z NAM per the soundings. Maybe a few pingers as the dry slot comes in here by 18Z Wednesday. Looking like my call from earlier was probably a bit too cold, as it does appear the pingers will raid areas south of the Pike. Real tricky scenario as we will be doing battle between the mid-level WAA and the dynamic and diabatic cooling from the heavy omega and precip. As is often the case in SWFEs, the jackpot will likely occur just above the northernmost point of the sleet line in the area that stays all snow and sees the heaviest QPF. It's possible a secondary max may occur a bit further north in VT, NH, and ME where there are better ratios from deformation and frontogenesis, even though QPF is a bit less. A line from Lenox/PSF North and East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'll tell ya Messenger, there is something very strange with the NAM. Like you said. Not sure myself but, It looks like it weakens the high out west too quickly and displaces it southeast instead of east northeast. I think the NAM is on drugs again at 5h but I don't know if it matters. A bunch of times this year it's had some pretty glaring errors at 5h that just don't matter. The SPC UA/RUC analysis absolutely would say the NAM is going to be somewhat out to lunch at 6z in ND and down south. Yet the GFS doesn't appear to have dug enough in the western side in Idaho. To me the RUC/UA is pointing towards a stronger m/l feature more in line with the older GFS but probably even stronger. The NAM is a lot faster than the old GFS, probably because it's shearing the system in ND to shi( overnight which surpresses heights as it moves ENE...look around MN/MI/IL/Iowa...height lines on the NAM are pushed further SE versus the GFS. I think that's going to be an error, we'll see. That's probably the beginning of it allowing everything to get further NE as it's weaker/faster aloft. Ironically we actually want it to hang tough a little further west before it hits the wall and opens/translates east. What it all means no idea, but I think we're going to have issues until the 12z...once we have all the features in the US maybe we will see the normal routine where models lock. It almost always seems to be that when features are in Mexico we are hosed. The GFS may be getting tripped up by more digging out in Idaho who knows but the NAM is likely going to have some poor verification scores at 5h even in 6-12 hours. I just don't know if it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I discovered what Kev has been doing when we think he is sleeping... He works in Methuen at the Loop mall... http://www1.whdh.com...all-in-methuen/ Someone please talk some sense into me. I'm thinking of ripping it (busted shoulder and all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what are you t hinking for BOS? Good question. Your number seemed fair. I think 6-7" seems within reach tomorrow. I was thinking 10-15" total earlier today. I feel pretty confident at this point of reaching 10". 15" I thought was near max potential, so I was thinking that. 12" is probably a good number for now. The thing is, something like 0.5C in either direction could change a lot of things..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 could be a sign of a good amount of freezing rain. for LI maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 People locally don't realize how much we're getting tomorrow. I was banging that drum all day and no one listened. Yeah tomorrow should be fun imo. I like what I see with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We aren't that far apart. I live right of Exit 3 off of 213, up in North Eastern Methuen I live on the Salem/Atkinson/Methuen lines, and I'm a student at Central Catholic in Lawrence. So basically I spend more time in Methuen/Lawrence than I do in NH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think the clown map might have me in the 12 inch range, Bufkit looks pretty sweet. How does it look at IJD? It won't let me save it...I right click and hit save link as but nothing happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I live on the Salem/Atkinson/Methuen lines, and I'm a student at Central Catholic in Lawrence. So basically I spend more time in Methuen/Lawrence than I do in NH lol Well. Howdy neighbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm thinking I could near the end anyways. Like you said, it may not matter too much. The DS could be here just after 18z Wednesday perhaps. I'm liking the big lift around 15-18z. Could be an epic battle as WAA tries to shoot north, but overall..I don't think the situation has changed all that much. yeah the NAM seems to have a sneaky warm layer coming in between 750 and 850mb around 18z or so...gets a bit more pronounced in the afternoon but i think the damage is already done for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Boston TV Mets Snowfall Totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 for LI maybe ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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