BDR Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 850s and 2m temp still below 0C by 15z Wednesday, but 540 line is north, sleet I'm guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:42 AM, ski MRG said: Thanks Scott, now I can sleep, seriously. I'm all amped up. I get nervous that something will go wrong at the last minute. That's why I'm forcing myself to detach, until I get up to see what the Euro spits out.lol I've been on the phone with my ski freak friends all night, plotting and conspiring to shirk all responsibilities. Getting congrats called in from BC, Washington, Oregon and Alalska. This is why I've always been self -employed. Work hard, play hard. Well I'd wait until tomorrow to satisfy any fears you have. This one may have a few tricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS just crushes N half of MA into CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 00z GFS is very juicy with part 1. large area of .5"+ precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:45 AM, JGNYK03 said: that forecast makes absolutely no sense i doubt a met forecasts 8-12" shore and 10-16" NW hills in an event like this.. i need some proof poor guy is being wrongfully accused He's NOT being wrongfully accused. I saw it. Twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ice for N CT by 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 shift this baby 20 miles south! screw that sleet crap.. im thinking 12to 15 here befor i see any sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:50 AM, nutmegfriar said: He's NOT being wrongfully accused. I saw it. Twice. you saw 8-12" forecasted on the shore and 10-16" inland.. when was this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WoW, Actually looks colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:45 AM, Ginx said: MPM at 2k LOL COD circle of Doubt No doubt, I just get freaked out reading posts from Messenger about slashing qpf or poor models yada yada.lol Like that old saying goes " A watched pot never boils." I may hit the B'east tomorrow afternoon Drop me a line if you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This run really smoked the ma/nh border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS certainly looks colder coming in through 36HR...colder than the NAM anyways...looks like with thicknesses above 540 perhaps ZR??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is starting to look like 12/16/07 again for forecasting ptype near the pike. Hopefully this one trends colder in the final 12-18h like that one did so the forecast headaches can be pushed closer to Ryan's area, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:53 AM, CoastalWx said: This run really smoked the ma/nh border. Go on.....how smoked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:42 AM, ski MRG said: Thanks Scott, now I can sleep, seriously. I'm all amped up. I get nervous that something will go wrong at the last minute. That's why I'm forcing myself to detach, until I get up to see what the Euro spits out.lol I've been on the phone with my ski freak friends all night, plotting and conspiring to shirk all responsibilities. Getting congrats called in from BC, Washington, Oregon and Alalska. This is why I've always been self -employed. Work hard, play hard. Amen brother! 20 years of this for me. And we can plan our winters around snow storms. It is a little disconcerting to see you nervous though...you are Mr. Smooth n Easy usually. Your nervousness can only mean a big bust or a huge overperformer. Just look at the radar man....round 1 slug lookin good moving across Indiana and Ohio. You wake up in the morning to accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:48 AM, CoastalWx said: Well I'd wait until tomorrow to satisfy any fears you have. This one may have a few tricks. On 2/1/2011 at 3:49 AM, CapeCodWeather.net said: GFS just crushes N half of MA into CNE WTF, you guys playing good cop bad cop. lol I'm out, Big Winter Incoming BIG BIG WINTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS starts it as snow here...possibly rip for a few hours before some type of changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:54 AM, ORH_wxman said: This is starting to look like 12/16/07 again for forecasting ptype near the pike. Hopefully this one trends colder in the final 12-18h like that one did so the forecast headaches can be pushed closer to Ryan's area, lol. Oy.. seriously - I'm getting the feeling that I won't have a good idea of when I'll change over until I'm ripping aggregates and slightly mixing with sleet which could last for quite some time from the sounds of it. Glad to have Jerry and Scott leaning more snow than sleet but just like the general average of all the runs in the last 48 hours it's a matter of 25 miles either side of the pike still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:52 AM, JGNYK03 said: you saw 8-12" forecasted on the shore and 10-16" inland.. when was this??? 10 pm tonight. Are you implying that I am lying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS looks like more ZR than IP I'm going to say here? Looks a bit warmer with the warm punch than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:52 AM, SC48 said: WoW, Actually looks colder... Not really sure what you are seeing. Noticeably warmer at the mid levels on this run. Sleet makes it north of the pike. I may now be in a little trouble in Amherst, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:54 AM, ORH_wxman said: This is starting to look like 12/16/07 again for forecasting ptype near the pike. Hopefully this one trends colder in the final 12-18h like that one did so the forecast headaches can be pushed closer to Ryan's area, lol. LOL, that's been heavy in my thoughts. What a tight rope. I guess the one thing I like seeing is that the "warm" layer seems to only get to 0.8 to 1C. I know that may be a little on the warm side, but some of that can be overcome I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:54 AM, ORH_wxman said: This is starting to look like 12/16/07 again for forecasting ptype near the pike. Hopefully this one trends colder in the final 12-18h like that one did so the forecast headaches can be pushed closer to Ryan's area, lol. Lol thanks! I'm pretty confident s big ice storm is unlikely. It's dealing with snow vs sleet now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:48 AM, BDR said: 850s and 2m temp still below 0C by 15z Wednesday, but 540 line is north, sleet I'm guessing? Can't really go by the 540dm thickness contour... I've seen straight snow storms at 552 thickness before. You have to look at the individual critical thickness intervals. That said, I suspect between Rt 2 and the Pike there will be a very tall IP column, where the above freezing level is substantial enough to melt closer to 800mb level than 850. That is ...if Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Maybe a couple of inches after 00z Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 gfs (and it may have done this at 18z - i didn't look at that run...it didn't so much at 12z) wants to kiss the south shore of CT with the 0C isotherm at 700mb...that's a flag for stealth warm layers...so careful not to judge this thing too much by your 850 temp if you are near the 0C line and thinking that line is the demarcation zone for snow/sleet or what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:54 AM, mahk_webstah said: Amen brother! 20 years of this for me. And we can plan our winters around snow storms. It is a little disconcerting to see you nervous though...you are Mr. Smooth n Easy usually. Your nervousness can only mean a big bust or a huge overperformer. Just look at the radar man....round 1 slug lookin good moving across Indiana and Ohio. You wake up in the morning to accumulating snow. Round 1 doesn't worry me. It's round 2 ,I hate mid level warmth, it keeps me up at night.lol Really I'm not worried, I'm feigning so I can get people to tell me I'm going to get smoked. I just like hearing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:56 AM, weatherwiz said: GFS starts it as snow here...possibly rip for a few hours before some type of changeover. Somehwere between 36 and 42 you flip to sleet but you alread have 1+ plus down plus it is intense, I will take this in a heartbeat. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm astounded to come back from an evening out to over 1.7" liq eguiv offered at BOS here... Circa FIT-me in Ayer-BED down to ORH have a real shot at 18+" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 On 2/1/2011 at 3:59 AM, CapeCodWeather.net said: gfs (and it may have done this at 18z - i didn't look at that run...it didn't so much at 12z) wants to kiss the south shore of CT with the 0C isotherm at 700mb...that's a flag for stealth warm layers...so careful not to judge this thing too much by your 850 temp if you are near the 0C line and thinking that line is the demarcation zone for snow/sleet or what not. Yeah this thing has a sh*tload of warmth. Probably why we see such substantial 6hr qpf on Wednesday. Tremendous WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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