February 1989

[weatherdude]

In February 1989 the Arctic Oscillation averaged +3.7 for the month by NOAA's records, and yet the month ranks as the ninth coldest February of the last 116 years. In fact there are a lot of current indications from the models of the day that this February will get off to a similar start with the strongest cold in the Rockies and Plains and the warmest conditions in the far Southeast.

The February 1989 NAO monthly value was +2.00 by NCEP records, making it the most positive NAO for a February average since the record started in 1950.

Also, by NOAA's monthly Nino Index values, the index was -1.2 for February 1989, a moderate La Nina, perhaps not too far from where this incoming month will average.

In all seriousness, I would love to hear people weigh in with their theories on what happened in February 1989 that was largely different than the month we are entering into.

[aslkahuna]

The PDO was in a positive phase then versus negative now.

Steve

[weatherdude]

The PDO was in a positive phase then versus negative now.

Steve

You should double check your data Steve...February 1989 PDO was positive?????

You better tell the folks at University of Washington meteorology, as they show it was -1.02 !!

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

[thewxmann]

From the 500mb map, it looks like persistent blocking in AK pushed cold air down into the Intermountain West and Plains.

[Mallow]

I'd take a Feb 1989.

[aslkahuna]

You should double check your data Steve...February 1989 PDO was positive?????

You better tell the folks at University of Washington meteorology, as they show it was -1.02 !!

http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

True the February PDO was negative BUT the decadal trend at the time (remember the PDO is a decadal oscillation ) was positive-also remember that the ENSO phase has input into the shorter term PDO as well. The difference between 1989 and now is that we are in a negative PDO decadal phase even though at times it has swung positive.

Steve

[A-L-E-X]

Although Feb 1989 was warm in the east, there were a couple of big snowstorms in Norfolk Va, one of which made it up to Atlantic City and dropped 19" there.

[weatherdude]

True the February PDO was negative BUT the decadal trend at the time (remember the PDO is a decadal oscillation ) was positive-also remember that the ENSO phase has input into the shorter term PDO as well. The difference between 1989 and now is that we are in a negative PDO decadal phase even though at times it has swung positive.

Steve

Hi Steve:

Its hard for me to see the significance, since both months are in a winter where the PDO index value is negative and are trending similarly, AND the correlation between positive PDO and February surface temperature is quite opposite of what was recorded in February of 1989, not to mention that all of the weather models show the first two weeks of February 2011 coming in quite close to February 1989. Below from NCEP/PSD is the correlation between POSITIVE PDO and February surface temps.

Of course the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is "decadal".

Thanks for your thoughts and input.

[tacoman25]

From the 500mb map, it looks like persistent blocking in AK pushed cold air down into the Intermountain West and Plains.

Yeah, massive -EPO was responsible for the cold in Feb 1989. Just as the -NAO can overpower a +EPO sometimes, a -EPO can overpower a +NAO sometimes.

[VAwxman]

Hi Steve:

Its hard for me to see the significance, since both months are in a winter where the PDO index value is negative and are trending similarly, AND the correlation between positive PDO and February surface temperature is quite opposite of what was recorded in February of 1989, not to mention that all of the weather models show the first two weeks of February 2011 coming in quite close to February 1989. Below from NCEP/PSD is the correlation between POSITIVE PDO and February surface temps.

Of course the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is "decadal".

Thanks for your thoughts and input.

In Texas the first two weeks of this month will wind up not far off of Feb 1989, but farther north it won't be close to as cold as 1989 was it appears.

[donsutherland1]

I suspect that the combination of an EPO- and PNA- led to the expansive area of cold over the western two-thirds of the USA, with the East escaping the cold on account of the PNA- and AO+.

[A-L-E-X]

I suspect that the combination of an EPO- and PNA- led to the expansive area of cold over the western two-thirds of the USA, with the East escaping the cold on account of the PNA- and AO+.

But somehow Norfolk to ACY got two snowstorms (19" there.) Dont you love it when that happens, Don? Cold in the west, warm in the east, and somehow the coastal lower midatlantic gets buried.... reminds me of 2001-02 when they had that big double digit snowstorm in Jan in the Coastal Carolinas and the Piedmont while we had a warm winter with under 10 inches of total snowfall.

[bluewave]

The -EPO/+AO/+NAO pattern was the dominant one back in 1989.

[A-L-E-X]

That exact same pattern lasted from about 1987-88 through about 1991-92. Will will tell ya it didnt even snow up in ORH during that period.

Also: the solar influence was off the charts back then.

[bluewave]

That exact same pattern lasted from about 1987-88 through about 1991-92. Will will tell ya it didnt even snow up in ORH during that period.

Also: the solar influence was off the charts back then.

That was a very persistent pattern.I will never forget that Dec 89 to Jan 90 pattern flip.

[A-L-E-X]

That was a very persistent pattern.I will never forget that Dec 89 to Jan 90 pattern flip.

I agree. The pattern we had back then had very little to do with la nina and very much to do with everything else which was stacked up against us.

I wonder if anyone has calculated how much snow we would need in this decade to make up for what the 70s and 80s did to us (I dont know offhand if the 90s also featured a snowfall avg in the teens, because we did have two great winters tossed in the 90s.) But if we could make a 30 yr snowfall comparison of the 1940-70 period and then calculate how much snowfall we would need the rest of the decade (avg per year) to equal that when the 1990-2020 numbers come out, that would be really interesting.

[bluewave]

I agree. The pattern we had back then had very little to do with la nina and very much to do with everything else which was stacked up against us.

After the Thanksgiving snow and the record December cold,the big change to warm in January was quite a surprise.

[A-L-E-X]

After the Thanksgiving snow and the record December cold,the big change to warm in January was quite a surprise.

Those were some near record +NAO we had going there-- its pretty shocking when you think about it, we basically had 40 degree temp averages for both Jan and Feb and temps in the upper 80s here in the middle of March for spring break! 22 out of 24 months above normal with an overactive sun! I think that's much rarer than getting a winter like 1995-96, 2002-03, or last winter (or this one.)

I remember there was a supressed system that was supposed to give us a foot of snow that missed us to the south while the forecasts for it were still unchanged (that was the first time I'd ever heard of virga) and there was another storm that was supposed to drop a foot here which ended up developing right over us and quickly changed to rain (with thunder and lightning)... both of these in Dec 89 during that record cold month.

[donsutherland1]

But somehow Norfolk to ACY got two snowstorms (19" there.) Dont you love it when that happens, Don? Cold in the west, warm in the east, and somehow the coastal lower midatlantic gets buried.... reminds me of 2001-02 when they had that big double digit snowstorm in Jan in the Coastal Carolinas and the Piedmont while we had a warm winter with under 10 inches of total snowfall.

I well remember those suppressed storms. February 1989 was an outstanding month in ACY and ORF.

[stormguy80]

Yeah, unlike this year the northeast got totally screwed in terms of getting big snow back in '89. Pretty much a polar opposite to this year snow wise.

Those were some near record +NAO we had going there-- its pretty shocking when you think about it, we basically had 40 degree temp averages for both Jan and Feb and temps in the upper 80s here in the middle of March for spring break! 22 out of 24 months above normal with an overactive sun! I think that's much rarer than getting a winter like 1995-96, 2002-03, or last winter (or this one.)

I remember there was a supressed system that was supposed to give us a foot of snow that missed us to the south while the forecasts for it were still unchanged (that was the first time I'd ever heard of virga) and there was another storm that was supposed to drop a foot here which ended up developing right over us and quickly changed to rain (with thunder and lightning)... both of these in Dec 89 during that record cold month.

[weatherdude]

In Texas the first two weeks of this month will wind up not far off of Feb 1989, but farther north it won't be close to as cold as 1989 was it appears.

Yeah north is warmer, but perhaps you missed the point of the original post, or I didn't lay it out clearly enough. My idea was along the lines of here comes February 2011, a month that will at least get through part of it with La Nina and very strong Arctic Oscillation and apparently some contrarian cold in the western 2/3 of the United States, something like a huge historic month for positive AO and La Nina, February 1989. So I thought I'd put up a post and see if any of the meteorologists on here would have any interesting ideas about the similarity or lack thereof as far as their forecasts, analogues, teleconnections. It was never intended as a contentious post, or to claim that Feb 2011 was an exact duplicate of 1989 or any other month.

Interesting to see how different folks reacted from different corners though VAwxman! Thanks so much for your input.

And for what it's worth, which isn't much, I would say the similarity is MUCH wider than Texas, but hey that's just me, a humble meteorologist with a lot to learn. One thing I have definitely learned so far is that its a lot easier to call the look of the month's first two weeks on the 8th of the month than it is on the first or before the month starts.

[donsutherland1]

I looked at February cases when the ENSO R3.4 anomaly was -1 or below and the PNA was <0. I also looked at the GWO.

It seems that 1985 and 1989 had in common the ENSO R3.4 anomalies, negative PNA, and having spent 10 or more days in GWO Phase 3 (13 for 1985 and 18 for 1989). Both had reasonably similar areas of cool and warm temperature anomalies. Ironically, 1985 had a positive EPO while 1989 had a negative EPO. Hence, after a further look, my guess is that the PNA and GWO probably contributed more than the EPO to the anomaly profile.

[downeastnc]

But somehow Norfolk to ACY got two snowstorms (19" there.) Dont you love it when that happens, Don? Cold in the west, warm in the east, and somehow the coastal lower midatlantic gets buried.... reminds me of 2001-02 when they had that big double digit snowstorm in Jan in the Coastal Carolinas and the Piedmont while we had a warm winter with under 10 inches of total snowfall.

I remember the 24th storm in 89, in fact that entire week was nuts. We had tornadic storms on the 21st with temps in the 60-70's, then 2 days later on the 24th we had 12-15" of snow here and places in NE NC reported up to 18-20". In fact other than the big one in Mar 1980 this is by far the biggest snow for the central and northern coastal plains in NC.

1989 was a great year for big snows, we had the big one in Feb with over a foot and then in Dec right before Xmas we had another 12".

[JBG]

1989 was a great year for big snows, we had the big one in Feb with over a foot and then in Dec right before Xmas we had another 12".

Maybe somewhere else. Besides 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1990 and 1991 it's hard to think of a worse year for snow in my neck of the woods, using calendar years.

[Mallow]

Maybe somewhere else. Besides 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1990 and 1991 it's hard to think of a worse year for snow in my neck of the woods, using calendar years.

Kind of like 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1999, 1997, 1996, 1991, 1988, and 1987, whose calendar years all featured an inch or less of snow in downtown Portland.

To put that into perspective, in the 25-calendar-year period from 1985 to 2009, there were 11 years (44%) with an inch or less of snow.

In the previous period from 1960 to 1984, there were 7 (28%).

In the previous period from 1935 to 1959, there were 7 (28%).

In the previous period from 1910 to 1934, there were 4 (16%).

In the previous period from 1885 to 1909, there was only 1 (4%).

So my life has had the most crappy winters of any 25-year stretch for Portland. Ya.

So ya, I'll take 1989's 3.5" (in March) any day.