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Observations Jan 31- Feb 2nd


snownut

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Skies rapidly clearing. Temp 58 degrees in Dale City and rising rapidly - I expect we'll top out in the low/mid 60s.

Much of the snowpack managed to survive the heavy rain last night because temps stayed near freezing throughout the rain event -

But what the rain did not get - The SUN and very MILD temps will destroy UTTERLY.

By 4pm we shall lose 100% of our remaining snowpack and snowpiles will be greatly diminished - many snowpiles will be vaporized as early spring weather overtakes the southern Mid Atlantic. BY late this afternoon you will be hard pressed to find ANY snow at all in Northern Virginia well east of the mountains, although I think Leesburg and Loudoun County and the RT 7/Rt 9 Corridor will fare MUCH BETTER than we will due to much cooler weather and earlier onset of serious CAA.

The only places where patchy snow may have a snowball's chance in Hell will be the usual suspect locations: To the north of solar insolation blocking objects and the usual northeast-facing hills. Bel Air school in Forestdale is a good exemplar of a NE-facing hill but it is going to be HOT out there this afternoon and the strong February sun will not help - That sunshine plus warm weather plus high dewpoints shall show our beloved snowpack NO MERCY WHATSOEVER.

It is absolutely breaking my heart.

La Nina and zonal flow are taking over - global teleconnections support this overwhelmingly. Temperatures in the N VA and DCA Metro Region are returning to climatological normals and shall remain there, with only brief negative deviations from time to time. There will be numerous rainstorms this month and in March. March will probably torch - very similar to last year's presentation in spring.

Chicago and the Midwest - Dig out NOW - This is only the beginning. La Nina is going to kick serious, serious ass this month - DCA will have early spring weather and rainstorms as strong catastrophic cutter after strong record-breaking catastrophic cutter brings severe trowal defo snows to Chi-Town which will set new records for snows in the midwest - new snow records that will stand only until the next catastrophic La Nina comes to set still more ridiculous snow records. You might want to start boarding up your windows Gulf Coast Hurricane season fashion right about now - This storm last night was only a taste of what's to come.

Chicagoan snow weenies - THIS IS YOUR MONTH, possibly March as well. La Nina is going to put you into the next Little Ice Age. Weary of cold and snow? Just move to DCA. We're having an early spring.

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62 degrees with 45 degree DP in Dale City as of 243pm, massive warm air advection - very springlike out. Snow is disappearing very fast. Continued wall to wall sunshine

if you like spring this is your day

I don't like spring in early February - not one little bit - it is annihilating my beloved snowpack damn it to hell

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Cold frontal boundary hit Dale City at 310pm - Dark clouds with a sprinkle, wind gusts to 25 out of the North and an instantaneous drop from 63 degrees to 47 degrees caught me outside with a summer t-shirt on geeze.

After spending all day west of Baltimore and socked in, I got south of I66 on the beltway and the skies cleared and temps went up almost 1 degree a mile from 46 (car thermo) in Tysons until I got off in Dale City at 64, 30 mins later.

Was at 63 at the house and enjoyed it for about 15 mins than the bottom fell out. Within the last 30 mins a drop down to 47.5 ...so much for Spring. Nice while it lasted. I had the urge for a few minutes to break out the beers and sit on the back deck. Now thats over.

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Very surprised at the snow remaining as of 520pm Heavy wet snow packed down by three quarters of an inch of cold 32 degree rain overnight on top of a cold ground held up better than I could ever have imagined.

This morning at 10am with clouds and 38 degrees, we had about 80 percent areal coverage.

After a day of sun and 63 degree weather - Down to about 30 percent areal coverage. Snow has managed to hold on in all the usual places - north of houses, even east and west sides of hills. The north side of my house has 3 inches of snow left. My front yard faces east. It still has an inch of snow on the north part.

My shoveled snow piles have lost half their height - I am shocked - I thought they would all be gone. Plowed piles in the subdivision lost about 20 percent of their height.

Snow can still be generally seen in the neighborhood. I am sure the shopping centers and Potomac Mills still has good plowed piles left.

Altogether very surprising that this much snow should survive a 63 degree torch with full on sunshine after a three quarter inch rainer, although the rain fell at night at 32 degrees. The ground is cold and the snow was heavy wet snow to begin with.

Speculation about places like central Maryland where they got socked in with over a foot of heavy wet snow a week ago - They likely still have at least 5 inches of snow with near 100 percent areal coverage - If I got a look at those neighborhoods right now my jaw would be resting on the ground in total awe.

Central Park probably still is socked in deep impenetrable snowpack.

Leesburg, North RT 28 near Dulles, RT 7 and RT 9 on into Jefferson County West Virginia into Mannings W VA probably still have 2-4 inches snowpack with near 100 percent areal coverage due to overall colder temps with this storm, icing and very cold rain last night then only 30s today with very early onset of strong CAA (compared to tropical DCA and N VA).

Davis W VA has more snow than Chicago IL

All in all a major surprize given all the rain here, NO icing at all, and low 60s maxima with abundant springlike sunshine nuked away much of our areal snow coverage but left us a surprising amount.

Now the sun is setting and CAA is underway - we are finally falling thru the 40s toward lows in the low 20s.

Thank goodness!!!! Everything has a good chance to freeze.

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I'll chime in on the snow coverage. Here, in Winchester, and north of town, we have basically 100% snow coverage. The only clear areas are in the open where the wind had stripped away the snow anyway and on any steep south facing hills or embankments. This is a true testament to the storm last week. It was only 8 to 8.5 inches here, but it sure must have had a lot of water in it. It also speaks to the depth of the cold ground. Anyway, glad to have kept some. At least the next couple of days will seem wintry. Maybe we can luck out and get some this weekend, arctic front next week, crank up another snow. Its still a long way to "true" spring.

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I'll chime in on the snow coverage. Here, in Winchester, and north of town, we have basically 100% snow coverage. The only clear areas are in the open where the wind had stripped away the snow anyway and on any steep south facing hills or embankments. This is a true testament to the storm last week. It was only 8 to 8.5 inches here, but it sure must have had a lot of water in it. It also speaks to the depth of the cold ground. Anyway, glad to have kept some. At least the next couple of days will seem wintry. Maybe we can luck out and get some this weekend, arctic front next week, crank up another snow. Its still a long way to "true" spring.

Can you speculate on how much snow may be left in places like North RT 28 near Dulles Airport, Leesburg, and RT 7, RT 9 into Mannings, W VA?

Those places are dear to me - I have gone on dozens of snow chases in those localities over the past 20 months

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Can you speculate on how much snow may be left in places like North RT 28 near Dulles Airport, Leesburg, and RT 7, RT 9 into Mannings, W VA?

Those places are dear to me - I have gone on dozens of snow chases in those localities over the past 20 months

No, Jeb, I can't. I haven't been out that way. I think areas around Leesburg actually got more snow than we did, but I don't know how their's has held on. We got lucky over here. First we had snow on Friday, about an inch. Then no sun at all on Sat/Sun. Then a little topper of sleet/snow Monday night, then last night just as the rain started, the temp went down to about 31 and instead of a melting rain last night, we got a layer of ice on everything. I'd say a few miles meant everything. I know this morning, by the time I got to downtown Winchester, there was no ice at all there, yet here about 7 miles north, there was a layer on everything.

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