How far off will the 12Z 1/31 Euro run's -20C at 850 verify for KATL? -20C is only 1C off record low

[GaWx]

How far off will the 12Z 1/31 Euro run's -20C as of 6Z on 2/10/11 verify at 850 for KATL? To keep it simple, just guess how much warmer (or colder lol) the actual 850 will be at KATL at 6Z on 2/10/11. The winner will be the be who is closest to the actual error. Duplicate picks will be DQ'ed. So, please check carefully that your pick hasn't already been made by someone else. I'll use the 0Z 2/10 Euro run's 6 hour map to verify and will round it off as that would be close enough and make it easy to determine a winner. The winner will receive a copy of some of the coldest SE US Euro maps in history in paper form so that they could be used for whatever purpose one desires.

***Deadline to enter: midnight EST tonight***

FYI: 1) 12z 1/31 GFS has ~-6C.

2) The 0Z Euro's 240 hour map had ~+2C and implied a 246 hour 850 of ~0C fwiw.

3) The 0Z GFS implied an 850 near -1C for then.

4) The 6Z GFS had a cold -10C.

My guess: the actual KATL 850 as of 6Z on 2/10 will be -1C in deference to the 12Z gfs ensemble's -1C.

So, I'm guessing it will verify 19C too cold at KATL.

Anyone else?

[superjames1992]

I'll say it will verify at -5C: 15C too cold at KATL.

[chapelhillwx]

I'll do 0C; 20C too cold.

[flurry]

21C too cold..+1C

[tazaroo]

I'll make a serious guess of -9C

[Winterhawk]

-25c; 5 degrees too warm

[NCBlizzard]

3c; 23c too cold

[WXinCanton]

+4C 24 degrees too cold

[phil882]

-8 deg C, 12 deg C too cold.

[calculus1]

Hmm... What's left?

I'll go -7C or 13C degrees too cold.

[burrel2]

I'll guess +8C

[weatherfide]

I will go +5c actual, 25c degrees to cold

[machetemoonlight]

-20 C, exactly right, lol.

[bingcrosbyb]

I guess I'll go with +2C or 22 degrees too cold. Euro is wrong baby!

[LithiaWx]

-13C

Seven degrees too cold.

[dsaur]

-6c

[jrips27]

-4^oC or 16^oC too cold

[Jon]

-10 C, 10 too cold.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I will say -11C....9 degrees C too cold.

[PatriotWeather]

-3c

[Itunis]

+3 C actual, 23 degrees too cold.

[Inudaw]

-2 C, 18 Celsius to cold.

O-o;;;

[TheBlade]

+1C, 21 degrees too cold.

[Jet Stream Rider]

+10, 30 degrees too cold.

[GaWx]

This contest is now closed to new participants. Thanks to those who guessed.

Picks made:

-25, -20, -13, -11 through +1, +3 through +5, +8, +10

[Cold Rain]

I didn't see this thread till this morning, but in the Feb 5-6 thread yesterday, when you first proposed doing a contest, I said +4 would be the actual. It's up to you on whether or not you wanr to allow that answer.

[Cold Rain]

I didn't see this thread till this morning, but in the Feb 5-6 thread yesterday, when you first proposed doing a contest, I said +4 would be the actual. It's up to you on whether or not you wanr to allow that answer.

Ok, I got two of three facts wrong about my own post. I did offer a guess, but I did not do it in the Feb storm thread, nor did I do it for KATL. I guessed +4 for RDU on page 3 of the Banter thread.

Disregard. Need more coffee.

[GaWx]

Halftime update:

The prediction on the 1/31 12Z run was for -20C at 850 at KATL as of 6Z on Thu 2/10 (i.e., the then 234 hour map). The 2/5 0Z Euro's prediction for 6Z on Thu 2/10 (126 hour map) is for 0C. So, it has warmed 20C, but we still have another five days to go. Chapelhillwx has 0C fwiw.

[Lookout]

Not sure if I have ever seen so many cold outbreaks on the euro in the medium to long range only for them not to really verify. Move over gfs, you aren't the only cold weenie model in town

[FoothillsNC]

it hasn't happened yet, so I don't want to put the ECMWF down that much but its done this a lot this Winter. Over did the cold beyond day 5. Both last Winter and this one, on every single outbreak here the GFS 2m temps were by and large much closer to reality than the Euro even out to day 2. However beyond day 7, the GFS has the wilder swings and most deviant temps usually.