Gorizer Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Is anyone as impressed as I am with the recent accuracy of the models within 17 minutes of an event? It's ugly here now. We had a half inch of sleet and now ZR. Glazed and roads are a sheet of ice. It has slowly edged up to 29F. You gotta love the US models. Early yesterday they show most of this event southeast of here with maybe a little light snow. What did they blow this by 250-300 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Another barn just collapsed in Middle Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is the year of unrealized potential in this area. You can't really complain when you have around 60 inches of snow to date... but none of these events has put us in the bulls eye. We get the scraps every time, but it does add up. Yeah the models can't handle this pattern very well right now.. I think the ukmet did the best though. Of course with the tuesday event when we need a shift north and west it just won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Is anyone as impressed as I am with the recent accuracy of the models within 17 minutes of an event? That there is some funny stuff!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Agree...don't like the look of this for SYR...best WAA snow and def will probably be just around us...as you described. Typical - but not complaining here - this was an out to sea nothing event a day ago. 50/50 SN/IP ATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is the year of unrealized potential in this area. You can't really complain when you have around 60 inches of snow to date... but none of these events has put us in the bulls eye. We get the scraps every time, but it does add up. Sounds just like BGM. Multitude of 1-4" LES events off Cayuga / Ontario, 1-4" clippers, 1-5" grazings from coastals etc. etc. We have already exceeded our Oct-Feb avg snowfall, so this month is pretty much house money from here on out. A well above avg December, above avg January, and solid start to February has set us up for a collision course with the 100" threshold, would be 1st time since 04-05. Edit: Forgot about the 4-day LES event of 22.7 back in the 1st week of December. This was the same NWFE that blitzkrieged SYR and led to an all-time snowiest December on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchrnLkWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 5 1/2 " snow here in Schroon Lake, started snowing at 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What an epic bust for EC. Apparently snowing heavily in Toronto. Hopefully some of that is moving my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 snow went to sleet and now we are in a lull, temp is 30.2 . Measured 4 inches of new snow here in bolton landing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Solid S+ here now...first heavy, synoptic ob of the season for my area.....vis down to about 1/4 mile or less!! Flake size is enormous!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Normalcy for a La Nina has returned in one sense. What can trend northwest will trend northwest. I'm watching the deformation setting up northwest of me when two days ago the models had it mainly southeast of here. I don't think Tuesday is a foregone conclusion yet...... What an epic bust for EC. Apparently snowing heavily in Toronto. Hopefully some of that is moving my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Solid S+ here now...first heavy, synoptic ob of the season for my area.....vis down to about 1/4 mile or less!! Flake size is enormous!! LEK, Long time lerker, 2" per hour rates in Phoenix. Huge snow flakes. picked up 3" since about 5:45 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Beautiful radar depiction!!! (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 WOW thunder sleet here, comming down in buckets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 In Hartwick NY (just outside Cooperstown) multiple flashes of lightning and rumbling thunder the past 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Solid S+ here now...first heavy, synoptic ob of the season for my area.....vis down to about 1/4 mile or less!! Flake size is enormous!! There is definately something to be said for Intellicast when it comes to defining snow-mix-rain lines. I don't know what algorithm(s) they employ, but by far and away the most accurate I've found anywhere. Your obs from that part of Onondaga Co. are confirmed nicely in the last frame or 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 There is definately something to be said for Intellicast when it comes to defining snow-mix-rain lines. I don't know what algorithm(s) they employ, but by far and away the most accurate I've found anywhere. Your obs from that part of Onondaga Co. are confirmed nicely in the last few frames... It was off by 30 miles here today as it is now it's turn back to snow. Talked to a friend in Rome thunder lighting and sleet. Another fine job by the models/tools and the mechanics who use them. 2 hr drive back from Syracuse 75 miles 13 cars either off the road or upside down. Fools!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Normalcy for a La Nina has returned in one sense. What can trend northwest will trend northwest. I'm watching the deformation setting up northwest of me when two days ago the models had it mainly southeast of here. I don't think Tuesday is a foregone conclusion yet...... Unfortunately, there is a dry slot just west of ottawa. Hopefull that fills in. It would be a shame to miss out on a surprise storm. Toronto is being hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LEK, Long time lerker, 2" per hour rates in Phoenix. Huge snow flakes. picked up 3" since about 5:45 or so. Hey, welcome! Good stuff! And this is (finally) real honest synoptic snow! A few of these or a couple bigger storms and snow depths could get really deep, with the glaciated 17" of 100" LES since Dec.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It was off by 30 miles here today as it is now it's turn back to snow. Talked to a friend in Rome thunder lighting and sleet. Another fine job by the models/tools and the mechanics who use them. 2 hr drive back from Syracuse 75 miles 13 cars either off the road or upside down. Fools!!! Yea completely awful forcasts. It's a shame that nearly all pros just use the models like a noob like me could and noone saw what was really going to happen. We've torched to to 39.7° here currently. Lightning in the distance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 getting some nice thunder and lightning here now with freezing rain. at least this storm could provide that much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Thunder headed for ya Rick................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 A line of thunder ice is approaching here from the west I just saw the first lightning. 29.3F..... Ughh I'm losing my directv... WOW thunder sleet here, comming down in buckets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 OMG! It's like a summer time T-Storm here! At least 10 flashes of lightning with thunder in the last 15 minutes! A line of thunder ice is approaching here from the west I just saw the first lightning. 29.3F..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Picked up 4" in Phoenix in a very short amount of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 OMG! It's like a summer time T-Storm here! At least 10 flashes of lightning with thunder in the last 15 minutes! PL or RN ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 PL or RN ? It is so beautiful outside! Everything is caked in snow. Transioned back to snow pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 2" of snow/sleet combo here..Precip is very light atm, hard to tell what it is..Looks like drizzle with a few snowflakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 FZRA T shower..certainly not severe, but a novelty. Checked again...some PL mixed, but mainly FZRA. quote name='West Mtn NY' timestamp='1296954218' post='439975'] PL or RN ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 31.8* mostly rain with just a bit of sleet mixed in. PL or RN ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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