Organizing Low Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Its ridiculous how sh*tty the models are handling this storm.. a 200 mile shift north from 12z. By tomorrow you will be in the bullseye. im not invested in this at all, nor do i want to be lol....im much more interested in the rest of the week i really feel bummed for you guys......this was your snow and i hope it trends back........i guess at least wait for the rest of the 00z but still what an epically horrible performance by the models. i guess the BUF-ROC crowd has gotta be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 now i have to stay up for the 0z gfs and ecmwf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 nam clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I get about 4" with a glaze of ice on the nam...I need about a 20 miles shift south..(if the nam is correct ofcourse) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Note that the clown map i posted above includes the clipper on Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Lol, thru H24 the GFS looks very NAM-ish. Moderate-to-heavy snow WNY to NC NY. Unreal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS 30. 540 thickness / 850 0c collapses. Moderate-to-heavy snow C NY / Tug Hill thru the Dacks / Lake George region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS 36. Event winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 24-Hour QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow, this constant shifting within 24 hrs. is amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Models are cutting back a bit on precip in east central NY...GFS has a bit more than NAM for the ALB area, but need to check how much (or little) of that is actually snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm in the bulls eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 WNY, N-CNY, and far Northern NY make out very well with NAM and GFS! I'm in the bulls eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 WNY, N-CNY, and far Northern NY make out very well with NAM and GFS! that 0c line is too close though at first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If this track actually verifies, then hats-off to the GGEM and UKMET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_0z/jloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Win for the GEM? I think this was the only model that spread any meaningful QPF into WNY before these last minute model shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kbuf WIN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...phtml?site=kbuf WIN!!! Hmm, wonder if BUF will hoist any headlines with tonight's update. Maybe a bit gunshy after the issues with the last storm. If nothing else, I would expect a change to my current point and click 4-cast: Saturday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 34. Southwest wind between 8 and 15 mph. Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. West wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 That's warning criteria! Went from a trace to 10 inches in 24 hours. UNBELIEVABLE ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I wouldn't mind a 'bust' in the other direction for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Don paul going with 4-8 inches for metro and 6-12 for the southerntier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Don paul going with 4-8 inches for metro and 6-12 for the southerntier! My man Don! Our local microcast must back up the NAM/GFS - he usually sticks pretty close to that tool. It actually nailed the last storm with the early change to sleet and dryslotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 My man Don! Our local microcast must back up the NAM/GFS - he usually sticks pretty close to that tool. It actually nailed the last storm with the early change to sleet and dryslotting. it's on a roll this winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Make sure it 5th 0z http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYwhiteout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Hmm, wonder if BUF will hoist any headlines with tonight's update. Maybe a bit gunshy after the issues with the last storm. If nothing else, I would expect a change to my current point and click 4-cast: Saturday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 34. Southwest wind between 8 and 15 mph. Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. West wind between 3 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Ya, I was thinking the same thing...when are they going to update our forcast here in the greater ROC area....from the last few runs of the NAM they should have thought about changing things. Oh well, Im just glad things are changing for the better for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Ya, I was thinking the same thing...when are they going to update our forcast here in the greater ROC area....from the last few runs of the NAM they should have thought about changing things. Oh well, Im just glad things are changing for the better for once! Hey, welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The numbers look good the only problem will be the temperatures; Right now, they will be marginal for the event.....But parts of central NY could see 4 inches maybe a bit more..As for the Hudson Valley I think 6-8 with localized spots maybe a bit more. GFL still looks like 2-4 inches. Parts of the Southern Tier will do very well. Earlier, I didn't think I would see any snow; but now I guess I could see up to a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Im worried about the dryslot..Both the nam and gfs give me sleet/ice to start with very little qpf wasted and then i turn over to snow..That dry slot is gonna be the killer 4 my area, can see it already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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