CNYWxGuy Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 qpf Gotta' admire her spirit and refusal to back down... Updated BGM HWO has split the cwa in half nw / se for this event, with moderate accumulations possible along and s / e of Bingo-Oneonta line... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 325 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 CHENANGO-OTSEGO-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Shift the NAM 25 miles NW and im happy lol That would give me more snow then the "big storm".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 looks like a little warmup is comming up for a few days, mid 30s is unheard of lol Saturday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southeast wind between 3 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 17. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 17. Monday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30 http://forecast.weat...87&lon=-74.9928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NWS has yet to update this afternoon but here is from this morn CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERNU.S. SUGGESTS THAT ONCE THE STORM ORGANIZES...SOME CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUGGESTING POTENTIALLY HIGHER MOISTURE AND MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK DUE TO DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING. MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOLID TO HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS...WHILE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES COULD SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Accumulation totals in Buffalo area from last storm. Most areas received between 6-12 inches. Pretty spot on forecast. A little low, but not far off. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 NWS has yet to update this afternoon but here is from this morn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 500 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABORAD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS USUAL...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY. WE ARE LOOKING AT SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE LOW CENTER HUGGING THE COAST...WITH HIGH PCPN AMOUNTS AND MORE MIXED PCPN...TO SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW CENTERW ELL OFFSHORE...LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS AND ALL SNOW. MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION LOOKS BEST FOR RIGHT NOW AND FITS WELL WITH NCEP FORECASTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL ALSO INCLUDE MIXED SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It seems to me that the NAM has been way overdoing precip at this range quite consistently lately. I'm a seller, not a buyer. 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 qpf It seems to me that the NAM has been way overdoing precip at this range quite consistently lately. I'm a seller, not a buyer. My prelim take on Saturday system: FAST mover..may track a bit more west than OP models...QPF around 1/2 inch possible max of .70. Figure .5-.6 for now for Albany..10:1 ration 4-8 inch event max snowfall. from CD west thru N thru E of there...mix even rain possible south of Albany at start then change to snow on tale end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Once again look at where the models have the H7 and H850 U/A features...you think we'd learn from the last storm. And this upcoming one is weaker.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Once again look at where the models have the H7 and H850 U/A features...you think we'd learn from the last storm. And this upcoming one is weaker.... Isn't it past your bedtime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Isn't it past your bedtime? I took a power nap and I just screwed up my sleep cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 heres the 00z RGEM.. echoes what Andy was saying nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z GGEM came west enough to introduce rain to the lower hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro sounds like its closer to the coast also.. cmc/rgem/uk/jma/ecm vs nam/gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z ecm looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC PREFERENCE... 00Z/04-12Z/03 ECMWF BLENDALOFT... AFTER 24 HRS... THE 00Z GFS BECOMES QUICKEST COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN. THE 00Z UKMET IS SLOWEST. AT THE SFC... THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPARE WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS THE LOW DEEPENS NEAR CAPE COD. THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE QUICKER AND DISPLACED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z UKMET IS WELL INLAND AS IT MAINTAINS A SFC LOW WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SLOWER/WESTWARD TREND IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL LEAN BETWEEN THE TWO MOST RECENT AND FARTHER WEST ECMWF RUNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 kbgm THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE JUST AGLANCING BLOW FOR THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS (MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW)...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN FARTHER N/W. MEANWHILE...THE EC IS TRENDING THE OPPOSITE WAY...NOW YIELDING UPWARDS OF AN INCH QPF IN OUR SERN ZONES...WITH A GOOD QUARTER-INCH PLUS BACK TOWARDS THE I-81 CORRIDOR. A CLOSER INSPECTION OF LAST NIGHT`S EC RUN...HOWEVER...SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DISCONNECT BETWEEN ITS BEST FGEN FORCING/ISEN LIFT...AND ITS MAXIMA IN QPF OUTPUT. FOR THIS REASON...WOULD TEND TO LEAN AT LEAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS. TWO NOTES OF CAUTION...THOUGH. FIRST...A LOOK AT BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING NWD FROM THE GOMEX INTO AL/GA/SC ATTM...WHICH SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO USE. SECONDLY...THE EC IS NOT ALONE IN ITS FARTHER W AND HIGHER QPF SCENARIO (GEM AND UKMET FOLLOWING ALONG...ALTHOUGH HONESTLY NEITHER OF THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED WELL LATELY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 From KBUF: THIS WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FOR ONLY A 36 TO 48 HR FORECAST. THE DIFFERENCES HINGE ON A CLOSED 500 MB LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF DISAGREEMENT STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW OPENS UP...WITH SPREAD RANGING FROM THE GFS/NAM WHICH DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW LATE AND TO THE EAST...TO THE UKMET/RGEM WHICH HANG ONTO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW LONGER AND SPREAD QPF BACK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NEARLY ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION...WHICH MAY SUGGEST THIS IS MORE A FUNCTION OF HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...RATHER THAN AN INITIALIZATION ERROR. WITH NO STRONG READ ON WHICH END OF THE SPECTRUM IS CORRECT...WITH HEDGE TOWARD A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST...BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 21Z SREF MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 RGEM doesn't cave....gives C/E/N Upstate into NE a nice moderate snowstorm (4-12" with some lollies in there) NAM has moved a tiny bit toward the more western solutions, but gets it's NW precip field squashed by the confluent flow. So does the H500 open up quick??? Or remain in tact to help us out (per RGEM and 00z EC, et el.)?? Ridiculous spread with such short leads..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What's with the LES off of Ontario? Was no mention of snow today but looks like a nice band has formed up near Watertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 RGEM doesn't cave....gives C/E/N Upstate into NE a nice moderate snowstorm (4-12" with some lollies in there) NAM has moved a tiny bit toward the more western solutions, but gets it's NW precip field squashed by the confluent flow. So does the H500 open up quick??? Or remain in tact to help us out (per RGEM and 00z EC, et el.)?? Ridiculous spread with such short leads..... seriously! that piece of energy has been a pain in the ass since it came onshore so long ago. hopefully you guys can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 seriously! that piece of energy has been a pain in the ass since it came onshore so long ago. hopefully you guys can cash in. GFS radically different from it's previous run.....caves to Euro/UK/RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like the westerly models are going to win this one....we may even get some snow in WNY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Mixing issues in eastern NY from the CD south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Mixing issues in eastern NY from the CD south? The 12z GGEM seems to indicate that as well. it looks like a rain snow mix at first transitioning to snow as the 850's crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Mixing issues in eastern NY from the CD south? The 12z GGEM seems to indicate that as well. it looks like a rain snow mix at first transitioning to snow as the 850's crash. Yeah, I'm beginning to think BGM has a legit chance at some mixing, especially along / S / E of I-86 / 88. Hell, if the UK / GGEM / RGEM are right, there could even be a transition to rain, especially in lower elevations and during periods of lighter precip before SLP slides underneath and off to the E. With such a relatively marginal / stale airmass in place, this setup seems more typical of a early / late season winter storm where elevation can become a dominant factor in P-type. Personally, if I come out of this event with 3+ inches, I will call it a win and move on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z euro the 0 850 line goes from BGM-GFL-RUT then crashes southeast with decent snows for BGM ALB GFL and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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