CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Alright, I started the on-going storm thread and it begs to be the 1st synoptic curb-stomper of the winter for a good chunk of the region. The models have been toying with the idea of another system to affect the region this coming weekend, and it seems this potential could be on the increase. Personally, I don't have as strong of a feeling about this one being a noteworthy event across Upstate as I did when I started the thread for the current event, but perhaps my magic touch will bring home the bacon for a 2nd time in a row... Here is what we have on the current run of models... Euro... Canadian... GFS... DGEX... Discuss it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ha i was just going to post in the other thread about it this could go either way, but todays euro was very intriguing at the upper levels. its crazy to think that this storm will be born of the 'leftover' energy from the first storm....what a 1-2 punch that would be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 One for my birthday on the 5th. What a great present! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM at H84 looks enticing which could yield yet another hit on the upcoming 18z DGEX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 HPC... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 132 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 VALID 12Z THU FEB 03 2011 - 12Z MON FEB 07 2011 FINAL... THE BLOCKY...SPLIT FLOW...WITH THE EMERGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...IS LEADING THE MODELS A MERRY CHASE. THE 12Z/31 DETERMINISTIC MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WENDING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CONVOLUTED FLOW. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BRING A WAVE NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DAY 5...WITH THE UKMET KEEPING THE IMPULSE FLAT AND SHEARED. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP IS NOT THE BEST FOR A WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE...SO FEEL THE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ECENS MEAN USED FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE...THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE ECENS MEAN SHOULD MITIGATE THE DISPARATE DIRECTIONS TAKEN BY ANY PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC MODEL. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HPC... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 132 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 VALID 12Z THU FEB 03 2011 - 12Z MON FEB 07 2011 FINAL... THE BLOCKY...SPLIT FLOW...WITH THE EMERGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...IS LEADING THE MODELS A MERRY CHASE. THE 12Z/31 DETERMINISTIC MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WENDING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE CONVOLUTED FLOW. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BRING A WAVE NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DAY 5...WITH THE UKMET KEEPING THE IMPULSE FLAT AND SHEARED. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP IS NOT THE BEST FOR A WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE...SO FEEL THE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ECENS MEAN USED FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE...THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE ECENS MEAN SHOULD MITIGATE THE DISPARATE DIRECTIONS TAKEN BY ANY PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC MODEL. CISCO they are basing that off last nights ECMensembles which were well OTS im sure todays are more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 they are basing that off last nights ECMensembles which were well OTS im sure todays are more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM at H84 looks enticing which could yield yet another hit on the upcoming 18z DGEX... DGEX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ggem was a coastal hugger, not much precip though..(maybe light-mod) Gfs brings a light to mod snow to the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Model update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Models actually seem to be in fairly good agreement on atleast a light snowfall for C NY and perhaps a moderate / advisory-level snowfall for Eastern NY. My interest level is starting to rise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Kind of odd asking this in the midst of the current mega storm I know, but how is this looking for my region so far? Like Organizing Low I want to build our snowpack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Kind of odd asking this in the midst of the current mega storm I know, but how is this looking for my region so far? Like Organizing Low I want to build our snowpack! Well... this system certainly isn't going to rival this current event for anyone, BUT, things have been trending upward in the last couple days, both in terms of track and QPF. Right now, this is primarily a C / E NY event on the models... but thats not to say W / N NY and areas near the Int'l border couldn't pick up a couple inches from this. Of course, things could always keep trending more N / W and / or wetter with time, so everyone still needs to keep an eye on this system, especially C / E NY folks. 18z GFS rang in with it's wettest run so far for this event with 12-18 HR totals of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Course then there is the DGEX, which continues to be a "nuclear" (most xtreme solution) option for this event and delivers a solid swath of 6+, although some of this is likely sleet in C / E NY under this scenario verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 HPC forecasted QPF for this period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 My interest level in this system just went up 150%. I feel a lot better about a storm system tracking up the coast vs tracking into the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 0z GFS continues to up the ante... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 6z dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Lets see who gets screwed this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Question, is there a specific reason for so many coastal lows this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 EC has Ottawa getting snow on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 could be a light to moderate event for some portion of the area. models have a lot of details to sort out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GGEM loses the storm enitirely while the GFS is much more robust at the upper levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The GGEM looks pretty out of line with most other models. GGEM loses the storm enitirely while the GFS is much more robust at the upper levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 ECM is a new england/ eastern NY special although BGM and points east gets about 0.25 towards Logan gets about 0.5 in the CD southern dacks 0.25-0.35 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sounds pretty good..... But I read in the NYC thread that it gets to just off NJ and then shoots east to near the SNE benchmark. How bizarre is it that every single coastal storm this year heads ENE underneath them just in time for snow. We can't buy a low that continues north along the coast past NJ. LOL This is a crazy year where every single storm has found a way to miss this area with the best snow, but yet most deliver enough so that seasonal snowfall and cover is quite good. And the people in the lowlands of the CD think they are having a very hard winter - having been lulled into a ""mid-south" mentality after six years since any winter was at or above normal. ECM is a new england/ eastern NY special although BGM and points east gets about 0.25 towards Logan gets about 0.5 in the CD southern dacks 0.25-0.35 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sounds pretty good..... But I read in the NYC thread that it gets to just off NJ and then shoots east to near the SNE benchmark. How bizarre is it that every single coastal storm this year heads ENE underneath them just in time for snow. We can't buy a low that continues north along the coast past NJ. LOL This is a crazy year where every single storm has found a way to miss this area with the best snow, but yet most deliver enough so that seasonal snowfall and cover is quite good. it is truly amazing for them really for the last month, there has been nothing in the indices to protect them, other than haphazard confluence or malpostiioned PVs that seems to occur at perfect time as storms enter and exit the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 EC has Ottawa getting snow on Monday. there is in fact another storm behind the weekend event that is more likely to affect us......thats probably the one EC is referring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.