The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think because of the regional discrepancies when I say south moneyman might come trash me and get upset. but really the models have just went to a deeper system that tracks more SSW to NNE. because of this models have trended colder...at all levels....warm wedge is smaller, and temps surface to 3K support all sleet even into the southern counties in the STL metro at this point. the warm wedge is so small....many places on the SE side of the snow band will see a changeover to heavy snow at times from sleet. If I had to go with numbers now... I would say 8-12 of sleet/snow for STL with .3 icing, .5 icing a bit south with 6-8 there. 12-24 inches just NW of STL. for LAF I say 10-15 inches of snow and sleet, a bit of ice..but mostly snow and sleet. if they stay all snow 15+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z GFS clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Long time listener, first time caller. I'm in Peoria IL. Based on what I'm reading, it sounds like we're absolute ground-zero for this storm, even more so than Chicagoland. Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what we'll see in Peoria/Bloomington? 12"? 18"? 20"? All snow, or ice layer followed by snow? People here at work are starting to freak out, so a Peoria-centric forecast would be much appreciated. THANKS! Ground zero for this immediate area looks somewhere from PIA to Midway south to IKK. 20" totals are certainly possible anywhere in this band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At least a third of the U.S. is covered in some kind of winter weather headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Long time listener, first time caller. I'm in Peoria IL. Based on what I'm reading, it sounds like we're absolute ground-zero for this storm, even more so than Chicagoland. Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what we'll see in Peoria/Bloomington? 12"? 18"? 20"? All snow, or ice layer followed by snow? People here at work are starting to freak out, so a Peoria-centric forecast would be much appreciated. THANKS! we will get all snow...how much depends on several factors the record 24 hour snow of 18.4ish inches is within reach.....espeically if any meso banding sets up over us but a widespread 13-15 inches with more in local mesobanding . it will be hard to measure and some of it will compact so measureing will be difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Convective looking WAA returns N of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z GFS clown map. Good, I like that one much better than the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So the GFS still drops 0.75" here and the GGEM is still around 1", so we can still get a good snow if the latest track and strength of the non-NAM models holds. It's always tough watching locations to my south get blasted, but it will also be very interesting to see just how much snow places like Columbia, Quincy, and Peoria get. I'll likely be up all night watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good, I like that one much better than the 12z NAM Eh, they both give us 15" here, but each in their own little way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i hear that LB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 snowing pretty good right now, hope this keeps up through the day i would say moderate snow at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Already pretreating the roads here in LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WOW....short and to the point. From NWS Tulsa: LATEST MODELS CONFIRM...AND STRENGTHEN LIKELIHOOD OF RECORD/NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MODELS ALSO INCREASE WINDS. MAJOR STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 look at the lake enhancemnt already over WI out MKE and greenbay radar sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ground zero for this immediate area looks somewhere from PIA to Midway south to IKK. 20" totals are certainly possible anywhere in this band. in ground zero i think 2-4 inch/hr rates are possible with TSSN max amounts should exceed 2 feet in spots......lollis to 30 inches not out of the question IMO btw, did i miss your call for your backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 in ground zero i think 2-4 inch/hr rates are possible with TSSN max amounts should exceed 2 feet in spots......lollis to 30 inches not out of the question IMO btw, did i miss your call for your backyard? Was thinking 12-18" earlier, but might jack that to 16-24", including LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Last nights interview from our local paper No hype! nice Beau!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Was thinking 12-18" earlier, but might jack that to 16-24", including LE. No DAB I hope you log at least 23.1", effectively wiping out the old snow record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Currently: Light to Moderate Rain, Temp 28F down from 31F when the Precip started. Ice forming on cars, power lines, concrete now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i recall last year, there were some live streaming newschannel feeds for the storm in OKC hope to see some live streams for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Was thinking 12-18" earlier, but might jack that to 16-24", including LE. nice nice, would love to see you get 20+ .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No DAB I hope you log at least 23.1", effectively wiping out the old snow record. I'm getting close to 100% confidence in a foot which is more or less a first, since i didn't track '99 mcuh beyond watching tv. The chance of mixing cutting down ratios/totals is nearly zero up here and QPF is consistently progged at 1.25-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Any chance DVN upgrades to Blizzrd Warning? All elements are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Solidly in LOT 20"+ area, pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm getting close to 100% confidence in a foot which is more or less a first, since i didn't track '99 mcuh beyond watching tv. The chance of mixing cutting down ratios/totals is nearly zero up here and QPF is consistently progged at 1.25-1.5" Yeah, your right about the mixing their, but LOT has RFD mixing on Tuesday in there grids, which I don't think makes much sense. Unless they count snow showers tapering off to freezing drizzle "The Mix". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 look at the lake enhancemnt already over WI out MKE and greenbay radar sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Any chance DVN upgrades to Blizzrd Warning? All elements are there. The chance is there. Mind you I'm not in the office yet and haven't dug too deeply into the models (besides scratching my head with the NAM placement of surface features versus 500), but I think if we go to a blizzard warning it will be along and south of I-80 in Illinois. Pretty confident the day shift will have to go with a winter storm warning for the rest of the area with the afternoon package, seeing as we'll be 24 hours from the event then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 thanks for posting those. really isnt any great match that i have found for here in the eastern lakes wrt to the PV position defintely uncharted territory here. I agree. Nothing in the CIPS analogs that really compares - some of the tracks are similar during the first 36 hours but differ after that. Nothing really matches the strength that is being progged. Another one to add to the archives! Love looking at the analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, your right about the mixing their, but LOT has RFD mixing on Tuesday in there grids, which I don't think makes much sense. Unless they count snow showers tapering off to freezing drizzle "The Mix". that's exactly what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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