Indystorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What are you chasing? I'd be chasing the icestorm if I was going to chase anything. It will probably be a crazy sight where it stays mostly ice. I think Beau had enough ice to last for a lifetime in the Paducah January 2009 ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wonder if DVN/ILX/LOT will upgrade to warning here soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I lowered it to 10-14", my bad:) for LAF. Still tho-- I see a more snow threat with deeper height falls and not mixing in the NAM into the guidance mix. Baroclinic, did you put a snow/ice map out? Do we have a map thread somewhere I am missing? Sorry for the clutter...just curious on the Pro-Mets thoughts with the guidance to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think Beau had enough ice to last for a lifetime in the Paducah January 2009 ice event. at least he could keep mom and dad company if he chased the ice storm though yeah I think beau's seen enough ice for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is lake enhancement really gonna be as big of a deal for southern Wi/No Illinois as MKX is making it out to be? MKX has band enhancement even to the Midpoint of the state or it's Western CWA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what are peoples thoughts for my backyard, MKE calling for right about 17", and i just can't see it happening thinking 10" may be even high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 <br />SNow showers late this afternoon-tonight--3-5" by the overnight period.<br />Fzdz by tomorrow morning with a few flakes mixed in--looks dry enough aloft though to stay drizzly. Late Tuesday into the night developing heavy snow--I am betting on a stronger solution and deeper height falls/cooling so mostly if not all snow. Heavy at times--blizzard type conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with 50+ to mix down through 09z then slow weakening winds but still blustery and blowing snow--up to 35 G.<br />10-14" storm total. Bigger issue will be 6-8 hours of blizzard conditions and blowing snow with 50-55 mph mixing in.<br /><br /><br /><br />If it isn't too much of a bother, could you do that for Indy? I have a lot of people where I work concerned about this ice situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks much. I'd love to see that verify but I'm worried about how much sleet and maybe zr might mix in. Straight ZR doesn't seem much a threat to me for LAF proper for the big event--if that is where you are. Sleet will cut down on ratios--hence why I went lower on totals. LAF is literally in the middle of this all--the front wants to lift over LAF but then it looks to occlude-hence a brief mention of sleet and lower totals--but mostly a snow threat then big winds on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here are the CIPS analogs. Like the top 2. http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=048&flg=new thanks for posting those. really isnt any great match that i have found for here in the eastern lakes wrt to the PV position defintely uncharted territory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is lake enhancement really gonna be as big of a deal for southern Wi/No Illinois as MKX is making it out to be? MKX has band enhancement even to the Midpoint of the state or it's Western CWA... The lake is pretty cold but not overly ice covered. Delta Ts won’t get crazy, but it’s going to be a cold storm and with ripping northeast winds so it’s hard to imagine some extra juice doesn’t get thrown into the column. The NAM is also hinting at a decent but short lived lake effect band on the tail end post defo band. This is harder to peg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Boy, the trend is NOT the friend of Iowans. We needed the uber-agressive models(with low track to St Louis), but they are headed east. Any further east shift will cause my total to fall off a cliff. Even worse, the nice initial WAA event today/tonight is tanking on the models. It had looked good for a widespread 3-5 inches across Iowa, but now 1 inch, maybe 2 is all we will get. So this winter has two huge snowstorms, one goes north of Iowa, one goes south. Maybe we can get a last minute nowcast left hook from this thing. I guess we shall see. I'm hoping the NAM is wrong and the other models end up being correct and take the low right over St Louis. The heavy snow swath is so wide that don't think it would take that much of a jog back north to get into heavy snows. GFS still has anyone from Cedar Rapids south getting at least a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what are peoples thoughts for my backyard, MKE calling for right about 17", and i just can't see it happening thinking 10" may be even high. 17 storm total including today/tonight might not be far off, if it's just for the main event, too high imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think LAF and STL are in similar situations here....in the middle of the muck! Some ice/glazing, lots of sleet, ending as heavy snow. 7-11" of Sleet/Snow is my prediction. To our northwests..40/50 miles and farther NW...12-20" of Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS Indy says this ice storm will be bigger than the Kentucky ice storm of 2009. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=63352&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I didn't know you two were going to be working together, sounds like a dynamic duo. We will be a dynamic duo at North Platte, NE NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 thanks for posting those. really isnt any great match that i have found for here in the eastern lakes wrt to the PV position defintely uncharted territory here. Got to love December 16,2007 and january 2-3,1999 being included in the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS Indy says this ice storm will be bigger than the Kentucky ice storm of 2009. http://www.crh.noaa....=63352&source=0 Assuming this storm lives up to all this hype, you might not hear from Illinois/Indiana/Missouri for a little while . I really hope the ice situation isn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS Indy says this ice storm will be bigger than the Kentucky ice storm of 2009. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=63352&source=0 That is very scary coming from them since they tend to be a more conservative office imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 very excited to see what the offices do this afternoon. LOT almost has to go to a blizz warning, and I'd think extreme N IN as well, and S MI. hey can you post an image of that hi res wrf you put up for northern IN but for chicagoland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS Indy says this ice storm will be bigger than the Kentucky ice storm of 2009. http://www.crh.noaa....=63352&source=0 That is a very frightening bit of news for a much greater population. Hope shelters and emergency preparedness civil plans are in place and ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Uncle Ukie at 48 A smidge south of the RGEM, but again, NAM's alone and cold. ukies heights at key time 48 hrs arent too far off the RGEM though just about 25 or so miles less amped over new england.....i think at this range is still within the normal range of variance between either model. gonna be very interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What are you chasing? I'd be chasing the icestorm if I was going to chase anything. It will probably be a crazy sight where it stays mostly ice. id be chasing the snow that is going to literally expode over to the NW of the storm, just south of chicago it appears i cant even believe what the models are printing out in that 6 hr period when that explosion takes place and the large area......the obs are going to be ridiculous and i will be shocked....stunned..... if forecast amounts arent exceeded and it will snow like it has never snowed before for many in that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hey can you post an image of that hi res wrf you put up for northern IN but for chicagoland? Got it from Cory early today and he's at work, but I iimagine he will run a broader one for the area off 12z data when he gets home aorund 12:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That is a very frightening bit of news for a much greater population. Hope shelters and emergency preparedness civil plans are in place and ready to go. Marion county Indiana has almost a million people, with over 2 million total in the Indy metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Moderate snow now with lots of blowing and the beginning of some drifting. Roads are covered. Basically it's already a dangerous winter weather situation and we've just started. New 12z GFS gives us 0.9" liquid, in line with alot of the runs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hey can you post an image of that hi res wrf you put up for northern IN but for chicagoland? I believe that is met tech's WRF, which has done well for me in the past with lake enhanced scenarios, including a 11" event last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Got to love December 16,2007 and january 2-3,1999 being included in the list. yeah dec 15/07 defintely caught my eye for us, but its not going to be that good for sure as the flow is just more suppressed over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Totally anecdotal, but the general attitude amongst non-weather enthusiasts is that this storm will be no big deal and is probably over hyped. luckily since the bulk will fall while people are asleep, i don't think the roads will be a car graveyard like they would if it started mid day before rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Got it from Cory early today and he's at work, but I iimagine he will run a broader one for the area off 12z data when he gets home aorund 12:30. I have to stay after work to do some training but I'll run an expanded domain when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannister80 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Long time listener, first time caller. I'm in Peoria IL. Based on what I'm reading, it sounds like we're absolute ground-zero for this storm, even more so than Chicagoland. Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what we'll see in Peoria/Bloomington? 12"? 18"? 20"? All snow, or ice layer followed by snow? People here at work are starting to freak out, so a Peoria-centric forecast would be much appreciated. THANKS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.