prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Prinsburg, do you know if the 0.50-0.75 shaded area extends east towards Toronto on the 48 hour map. I'm just out of range. It looks like it does, but I want to make sure. yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Plus, this person spelled "Des Plaines" wrong. If you can't spell the name of your hometown correctly, there's a red flag right there. Good catch. Then again, he spelled a lot of things wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I was thinking of Dec.16 th 2007 type totals, Jan. 1999 was a little over the top. They both had thundersnow with sheets of snow coming down. Regardless this looks like a memorable snowfall upcoming. Maybe thundersnow? That's an interesting analog. I think that storm was deeper than even the RGEM/UKIE/etc camp, but it did occlude near/south of Erie, PA similar to how this storm is being depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What are you thinking in terms of amounts? I'd go 6-10" right now for us. Hate having to base higher numbers exclusively on ratios. RGEM is interesting with already 0.50+ down by 12z Wed. Unless it zips east like the 0z GGEM it should be wetter than the NAM. I'm thinking of 8-12" for the Toronto area. And yes, the 12z RGEM looks tasty. Let's hope the models don't occlude the low too quickly. A nice gradual occlusion will do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm still pretty nervous about mixing all the way back @ home too. Last night I let my excitement get ahold of me. I think I'm going to actually wait till tomorrow morning until I actually make the decision whether or not to make the trip home. If LAF and home have near the same result, I may just stay here. Home should be pretty safe...mixing concerns look limited. Here, I won't feel comfortable until after the storm is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z GEM is further NW with the dry slot of course, despite the fact that it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yes it does Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm thinking of 8-12" for the Toronto area. And yes, the 12z RGEM looks tasty. Let's hope the models don't occlude the low too quickly. A nice gradual occlusion will do the trick. I was thinking 8-12 too but I got cold feet after seeing another NAM run lower QPF. I'll put myself out on a limb and say half a foot is our absolute minimum for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My girlfriend commutes to Lawrence and slid off the road this morning. She turned around and came back to Manhattan-- She said I-70 is already a mess with lots of accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I was thinking 8-12 too but I got cold feet after seeing another NAM run lower QPF. I'll put myself out on a limb and say half a foot is our absolute minimum for this storm. Quarter foot for KW, then It looks like I picked a bad day to leave Lambton County considering 10-15" is forecast right here for tomorrow. Maybe I'll, *ahem*, miss the train tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I remember in 2002 that my area(East-Central Kansas) got a historic ice storm that I will never forget. It seems like that may be unfolding for my area again. Last year was also pretty bad in terms of winter conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 27 stories or so, not sure on height, it would be gone forever. Since the best looks to come when it's dark, i'm not sure if i'll do rooftop or not, you might not be able to see anything up there. Right now i'm leaning towards going to Foster St Beach where they have real large lights and things tend to get wild there with NE winds. The lighthouse at Touhy Beach is pretty nice too, I think there is some decent lighting out on the end of the pier. The winds would be WICKED there too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hoosier is old--he is prolly still sleeping damn, you're up early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Torn between Peoria and Bloomington - Bloomington may have more wind. They are one county from the blizzard watch. Your previous trip to Peoria yielded great snow pictures. Go for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 So basically the 12z GEM dry slots us and the 12z NAM has shifted the heavier QPF SE. Hopefully we'll have a median between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you think it will be mostly sleet here? The thought of an inch of freezing rain scares me to death. Hopefully we can avoid that. Honestly I thinks it a crap shoot right now, just too close to call. Each TV station is a little different with the details, as have the models. Though the most consistent thing has been the look of ice (and alot of it) for all of Boone county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The lighthouse at Touhy Beach is pretty nice too, I think there is some decent lighting out on the end of the pier. The winds would be WICKED there too! There's a lighthouse just south of Foster as well, but it's 20 ft or so out in the water and i'm not sure i want to walk out on the 7ft wide pier to get to it if chunky ice waves are rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM pretty much moved the freezing rain threat out of Cleveland. Over 1.5 inches of frozen precipitation now. Snow to sleet to snow. Just a tad shift south and it's 1.50 inches of qpf all snow. Tricky forecast indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 damn, you're up early I'm pretty sure he didn't go to bed. I however am going to bed for a little while. Maybe while I sleep the Euro will paint 2.00" for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM has decided to give me 12-18 inches and is way colder, thank you nam In all seriousness the nam is COLD. no ice in the main event here, all sleet or mostly snow. nice turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So basically the 12z GEM dry slots us and the 12z NAM has shifted the heavier QPF SE. Hopefully we'll have a median between the two. I just saw H7 on the 48 RGEM. Wow, that is a mighty slot. All the way up to the southern tip of Lk Huron. Good news is you get 1.00"+ QPF beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 RGEM at 48 as a 1000mb just north of LAF. In comparison, NAM has a broad 1004 probably centered somewhere east of CVG. RGEM looks like it brought the juice too. lets just hope the RGEM is right....actually, lets pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 He didn't go to bed? IS he a vampire? LES bands in MSN? That doesn't sound good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 RUC a tad warmer than the NAM in Indiana. Images time-sensitive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm pretty sure he didn't go to bed. I however am going to bed for a little while. Maybe while I sleep the Euro will paint 2.00" for Detroit. My brain revolves around weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Prinsburg, do you know if the 0.50-0.75 shaded area extends east towards Toronto on the 48 hour map. I'm just out of range. It looks like it does, but I want to make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12Z GFS is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 RUC a tad warmer than the NAM in Indiana. Images time-sensitive: I mean honestly, I don't think that there is really any forecast you could put that will be correct. Because we are talking miles between Snow.. Sleet.. Ice.. just impossible to exactly pinpoint.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FYI the 12 and 18 hr 12z GFS 850mb Temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn maps at NCEP are older versions but the 10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn seem correct edit: just corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I mean honestly, I don't think that there is really any forecast you could put that will be correct. Because we are talking miles between Snow.. Sleet.. Ice.. just impossible to exactly pinpoint.. I like the RUC for trends...maybe it will trend cooler but the above concerns me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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