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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 7


Powerball

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:16 PM, Torontonian said:

I was thinking of Dec.16 th 2007 type totals, Jan. 1999 was a little over the top. They both had thundersnow with sheets of snow coming down.

Regardless this looks like a memorable snowfall upcoming. Maybe thundersnow?

That's an interesting analog. I think that storm was deeper than even the RGEM/UKIE/etc camp, but it did occlude near/south of Erie, PA similar to how this storm is being depicted.

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:17 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

What are you thinking in terms of amounts? I'd go 6-10" right now for us. Hate having to base higher numbers exclusively on ratios. RGEM is interesting with already 0.50+ down by 12z Wed. Unless it zips east like the 0z GGEM it should be wetter than the NAM.

I'm thinking of 8-12" for the Toronto area. And yes, the 12z RGEM looks tasty. Let's hope the models don't occlude the low too quickly. A nice gradual occlusion will do the trick.

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:18 PM, KeenerWx said:

I'm still pretty nervous about mixing all the way back @ home too. Last night I let my excitement get ahold of me. I think I'm going to actually wait till tomorrow morning until I actually make the decision whether or not to make the trip home. If LAF and home have near the same result, I may just stay here.

Home should be pretty safe...mixing concerns look limited. Here, I won't feel comfortable until after the storm is over.

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:20 PM, Toronto4 said:

I'm thinking of 8-12" for the Toronto area. And yes, the 12z RGEM looks tasty. Let's hope the models don't occlude the low too quickly. A nice gradual occlusion will do the trick.

I was thinking 8-12 too but I got cold feet after seeing another NAM run lower QPF. I'll put myself out on a limb and say half a foot is our absolute minimum for this storm.

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:26 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

I was thinking 8-12 too but I got cold feet after seeing another NAM run lower QPF. I'll put myself out on a limb and say half a foot is our absolute minimum for this storm.

Quarter foot for KW, then

It looks like I picked a bad day to leave Lambton County considering 10-15" is forecast right here for tomorrow. :arrowhead:

Maybe I'll, *ahem*, miss the train tonight :rolleyes:

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:01 PM, Alek said:

27 stories or so, not sure on height, it would be gone forever. Since the best looks to come when it's dark, i'm not sure if i'll do rooftop or not, you might not be able to see anything up there. Right now i'm leaning towards going to Foster St Beach where they have real large lights and things tend to get wild there with NE winds.

The lighthouse at Touhy Beach is pretty nice too, I think there is some decent lighting out on the end of the pier. The winds would be WICKED there too!

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:18 PM, bowtie` said:

Do you think it will be mostly sleet here? The thought of an inch of freezing rain scares me to death. Hopefully we can avoid that.

Honestly I thinks it a crap shoot right now, just too close to call. Each TV station is a little different with the details, as have the models.

Though the most consistent thing has been the look of ice (and alot of it) for all of Boone county..

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:33 PM, sc2man13 said:

The lighthouse at Touhy Beach is pretty nice too, I think there is some decent lighting out on the end of the pier. The winds would be WICKED there too!

There's a lighthouse just south of Foster as well, but it's 20 ft or so out in the water and i'm not sure i want to walk out on the 7ft wide pier to get to it if chunky ice waves are rocking.

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NAM pretty much moved the freezing rain threat out of Cleveland. Over 1.5 inches of frozen precipitation now. Snow to sleet to snow. Just a tad shift south and it's 1.50 inches of qpf all snow. Tricky forecast indeed.

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:35 PM, Powerball said:

So basically the 12z GEM dry slots us and the 12z NAM has shifted the heavier QPF SE. :arrowhead:

Hopefully we'll have a median between the two.

I just saw H7 on the 48 RGEM. Wow, that is a mighty slot. All the way up to the southern tip of Lk Huron. Good news is you get 1.00"+ QPF beforehand.

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:41 PM, Hoosier said:

RUC a tad warmer than the NAM in Indiana. Images time-sensitive:

ruc_850_016s.gif

nam_850_018s.gif

I mean honestly, I don't think that there is really any forecast you could put that will be correct. Because we are talking miles between Snow.. Sleet.. Ice.. just impossible to exactly pinpoint..

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  On 1/31/2011 at 3:43 PM, Mottster said:

I mean honestly, I don't think that there is really any forecast you could put that will be correct. Because we are talking miles between Snow.. Sleet.. Ice.. just impossible to exactly pinpoint..

I like the RUC for trends...maybe it will trend cooler but the above concerns me.

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