Harry Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS weaker. Model mayhem--one of these models is going to cave big time. I wonder if this stuff tonight tracking across IL/IN etc is causing this bump east/slightly weaker system on modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Interested in reading the HPC model diagnostic disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its so strange to look at all the warnings all over the US and Michigan is still in watches... what the heck are they waiting for. To see if the totals goes below warning criteria? Everybody that doesn't live in Michigan, lucky you dont have to read this crap on a daily basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS weaker. Model mayhem--one of these models is going to cave big time. GFS is actually same strength just slows the deepening process some and tracks further east as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RUC still looks SICK for northern Illinois and much of Iowa for that matter. Hawkeye oughta love this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 still nearly 1.5" here on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS is actually same strength just slows the deepening process some and tracks further east as a result. It is weaker--you can see it in the low level wind fields the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SEMI dry slotted.?....any thoughts from the Mets on here? No we should be fine ....especially if the east trend continues....I still think 12-16 looks about right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 not a fan of the east trend say it ain't so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is weaker--you can see it in the low level wind fields the most. Big slashes in QPF down south. No real areas of 1.75 or 2" totals anymore on either the 00Z Nam or GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its so strange to look at all the warnings all over the US and Michigan is still in watches... what the heck are they waiting for. To see if the totals goes below warning criteria? Everybody that doesn't live in Michigan, lucky you dont have to read this crap on a daily basis In a way I can see what they are doing...SEMI will miss out on much of the WAA precip tonight. Might as well wait until after the EURO. BTW The GFS painted some nice QPF for SEMI. I just want to know if a dry slot will role on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Madtown it is nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 +SN here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Big slashes in QPF down south. No real areas of 1.75 or 2" totals anymore on either the 00Z Nam or GFS. RGEM is the way to go here thus far with the 0Z suite. SREF 21Z NMM/ARW. RUC is also becoming an option based off trends and the explosion of precip in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its so strange to look at all the warnings all over the US and Michigan is still in watches... what the heck are they waiting for. To see if the totals goes below warning criteria? Everybody that doesn't live in Michigan, lucky you dont have to read this crap on a daily basis They will issue the warnings in the morning with the 4am AFD. Warnings are issued when an event has more than a 50% chance or better of the criteria being met within a 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its so strange to look at all the warnings all over the US and Michigan is still in watches... what the heck are they waiting for. To see if the totals goes below warning criteria? Everybody that doesn't live in Michigan, lucky you dont have to read this crap on a daily basis I 100% agree with you. Even Boston has a winter storm warning up, and their start time is well ahead of ours. Maybe the DTX guys think that warnings are issued within 8 hours of start time? Hard to justify them being uncertain at this juncture... they must have a +50% certainty that under 6" of snow comes during the storm, as I believe that's most stations criteria for not hoisting a warning within 18 hours of go-time.... however, not ONE single model that I can think of shows this. This is just grossly inept and irresponsible behavior on DTX's part, especially on the eve of what could be a very serious storm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In a way I can see what they are doing...SEMI will miss out on much of the WAA precip tonight. Might as well wait until after the EURO. BTW The GFS painted some nice QPF for SEMI. I just want to know if a dry slot will role on in. Its no excuse this NOT a run in the mill snowstorm even if its only 10" theres 30-40 mph winds Heavy blowing and drifying snow...its a no brainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 still nearly 1.5" here on the GFS Skilling's RPM 22.8" ORD on his 9pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Everything is exploding across Texas--seems like the NCEP guidance may very well be three hours off. Can make a huge difference in the overall forecast possibly. Yeah it is the RUC--but it is way W and stronger and seems to match what is going on better. RUC is going to be a useful tool here methinks. Maybe not out to 18 hours, but picking up on the trends as we move closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 going to crash soon in preperation of an all nighter tomorrow. Hopefully the more amped solutions prevail, either way things looked locked in for a windy 1'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is weaker--you can see it in the low level wind fields the most. SLP is the same and the wind field could be a feedback error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 going to crash soon in preperation of an all nighter tomorrow. Hopefully the more amped solutions prevail, either way things looked locked in for a windy 1'+ Im right with you...theres no way in heck im sleeping tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RGEM is the way to go here thus far with the 0Z suite. SREF 21Z NMM/ARW. RUC is also becoming an option based off trends and the explosion of precip in Texas. Yeah, seems pretty flaky. Storm is over the relatively data-sparse mountains still, and I imagine we aren't getting the same number/quality of ACARS and PIREPS as when it was over So. California. Still... 1002mb surface pressures in S. Tex. Those obs are going to tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, the mets at GRR know what they are doing. Some of the further east WFO's pulled the trigger a bit early IMO. When they issued the watch, there was still uncertainty as to exactly how much we would get. Will most likely see a warning from their 430 AFD update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ripping nice on the airport cam... flood light out fml... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the rgem would even bring some appreciable wind gusts all the way back into southeast minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RGEM is the way to go here thus far with the 0Z suite. SREF 21Z NMM/ARW. RUC is also becoming an option based off trends and the explosion of precip in Texas. So you are ignoring the shifts on two major 0z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RUC still looks SICK for northern Illinois and much of Iowa for that matter. Hawkeye oughta love this lol. Yeah, but I'm not putting any money on that model. GFS eastern shift has me back down from nearly an inch to 0.7". It sucks dangling on the nw edge of this thing... every small shift causes wild swings in my snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm still riding my 10-15" call for the QC from last night. Verbatim the new NAM and GFS both give the QC around a foot or so. I'm not gonna buy into the really high ratios until I see them. The granulated nature of the snowfall will help offset the higher SLRs IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, but I'm not putting any money on that model. I'd go with 7-10" for you, but any shift west at the last second could bump you much higher in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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