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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 7


Powerball

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gust to 50 in winter lol.. I have a hard enough time coming close to that in a good summer t-storm..its just mind boggling how to paint an image of the scene outside in those gust and the aftermath of the storm. Even the biggest of snow blowers are going to be useless in the drifts. It would be a never ending job to try and keep up with it shoveling if areas realize the potential..

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These Local TV mets are just killing me tonight. Not one model indicates Fox 2 projected snowfall of 8-10 all models point to QPF above 1.00. Know RL hes betting on dry slot to come in and crush totals down. Even The High Res models dont show a dry slot being that pronounced. The DTX office is also playing it safe. But thats expected.

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forecast updated. NWS now says STL Metro in line for 11-15"!!

MOZ061-063-064-011015-

ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST CHARLES...ST LOUIS

928 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...FREEZING DRIZZLE LIKELY IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY

MORNING...THEN FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY TOWARD

DAYBREAK. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. A

LIGHT GLAZING EXPECTED. LOW IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WIND

10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...WINDY...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE

MORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE

AFTERNOON. SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET

ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 9 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE TENTH

OF AN INCH. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST

WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDY...SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH

VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SNOW HEAVY AT

TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW

ACCUMULATION 11 TO 15 INCHES. LOW AROUND 16. NORTH WIND 20 TO

25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR

100 PERCENT.

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For the last few hours our snow here has consisted of very small salt-like flakes. Earlier this evening there were some much larger flakes mixing in from time to time. Overall though the WAA snows haven't really panned out very well for us. Looks like we've picked up a little under a half inch so far.

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wtf @ the NAM. Initialization error? Surface pressure fields seem to be off down in Texas. Must be DPVA/vort related. I'm trying to figure out why it insists on doing this.

Anyways, trough already neutral over Wrn NM. Definitely going to be cranked.

Everything is exploding across Texas--seems like the NCEP guidance may very well be three hours off. Can make a huge difference in the overall forecast possibly. Yeah it is the RUC--but it is way W and stronger and seems to match what is going on better.

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