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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 7


Powerball

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Just got home. Was excited to be back on the good side of the 1" line per the 0z NAM, but once I looped the run I could tell it was garbage. It tries to correct itself after 24 hours but I think the damage is done.

eh, the upper levels have improved steadily in the northeast since 12z on all modeling

i am starting to get optimistic.

hopefully the GFS/RGEM continue where they left off

the occlusion is the limiter though

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Lol DT is going crazy on Skilling's FB page...

"0Z NAM SHFITS HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH... ORD gets a lot LESS than MDW...

heaviest snows STL which earlier looked like Tons of sleet nows sees 12" of snow

Champaign and Decatur into Danville and Kankakee sees 20"+..."

"ANYONE who posts at accu Blunder is Moron. Period. They are all out of contriol weenies Mongerers and JB worshippers. On Jan 26 the last Big east snwostorm... which Model showed the HUGE afternoon explosion of snow over DCA BWI PHL NJ NYC CT? Yes the Nam 24 hrs ...before the event !"

And then he gets owned

"lol. and guess what model is discounted by the HPC. yep, you got it, the NAM. phase shift error ftl right? i suppose you mean that im a moron by the fact that im on the forums, but its sad to see that the real moron here is the one going against the grain of almost all forecast models and a general consensus to pick the outlier. go figure. ;)"

"@DT...it's so funny to see you coming into other met's FB page and posting stuff that you ban people from your WXrisk.com FB page all the time."

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LOT update:

A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS NO REAL SURPRISES

AND CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE EARLIER GFS/ECMWF/SREF

RUNS. BUT EVEN THIS SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TRACK WOULD ONLY SHIFT

THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH...AND THE ENTIRE AREA

WOULD STILL SEE TOTAL SNOWFALL IN EXCESS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT WITH

A SWATH OF SNOW IN EXCESS OF 20 INCHES...INCLUDING 20+ INCHES OVER

DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND THE NEARBY LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS.

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Kind of a novice here. what does this mean

the storm isnt getting shunted as much by the PV, the PV is trying to get more cooperative and in doing so the h7 low stays better defined and hangs back a bit longer, as does the h5 trough.

the occlusion is the issue though, that is true. dryslot also could become an issue.

lol, now that i think about it, i guess you can only get so much out of this storm.....i suppose just be happy with what you get.

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