WxMidwest Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 never thought I'd call a model run with 1.25 qpf with 15:1 ratios a crap run "I'm only getting an 18 inch snowstorm" shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1.5mi vis sleet. SPECI KLAF 010217Z AUTO 08010KT 1 1/2SM UP BR BKN014 OVC020 M07/M08 A3010 RMK AO2 SNB01E10 P0002 Did see some flakes mixed in a little bit ago, alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 901 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 .UPDATE... NOSE OF 35-40 KT 8H JET PER KLVX/KIND VWP SUSTAINING NEWD ADVECTION OF DEEPER WARM WET BULB LYR SUFFCNTLY DEEP FOR MIXED SN/PL ACRS SWRN CWA PER KGUS/KLAF METAR AND SPOTTER REPORTS OF CHANGEOVER TO ZR/PL MIX INVOF MARION TO ELLWOOD AND ABRUPT CHNGOVER TO ZR AT KMIE. NRN EDGE OF SN/PL MIX LINES WELL WITH RUC/LAPS 8H WB 0C LN WITH THERMAL LYR SUFFCNLTY DEEP/WARM FOR ZR AROUND 2C ISOTHERM. WITH LTST RUC TRENDING WARMER IN 900-800 MB PER KGUS/KFWA/KAOH BUFKIT OVER 18 UTC NAM HAVE BROUGHT MIXED SNPL FURTHER NORTH AND INTRODUCED PRIMARY ZR/PL MIX IN FAR SRN/SERN CWA. MIX UNTIL 09 UTC WHEN VEERING LLJ TRANSLATES EWD INTO WRN PA AS S/WV ENERGY NOW INTO WCNTL IL CONTS TO DAMPEN/WEAKEN ENTERING RAPID/CONFLUENT MDLVL FLOW. SHARP COOLING TO THEN ENSUE WITH ALL BUT FAR SERN CWA TO SN...AS LLJ MOVS EWD TO BEGIN WORK AGAINST EXTRM COLD AIR DAM ACRS APPALACHIA AND DRIVE WEAK COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF HATTERAS. SQUELCHED SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS TONIGHT IN MIXED PRECIP AREA. UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP PUSHED WITH WSW TO FOLLOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SEMI still looks solid for 12-16. GFS and EURO 0z runs will be the final call..then onto full high res from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NICE! Look at that swath of 0.5" between 1am and 7 am across the Cleveland area. Should be at least 6 hours of inch per hour snows with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice LES band showing up there on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KIND update 9:00 PM...New Castle reports 0.10 inch of ice on trees and 0.25 inch of sleet on the ground. 9:20 PM...McCordsville reports 0.10 inch of ice with a mix of freezing rain and sleet falling. Carmel reports 0.75 inch of sleet with hazardous driving conditions. 9:30 PM...Williamsport (Warren County) reported 1.2 inches of snow, with precipitation now falling as sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z NAM actually came in wetter for ORD with 1.23" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Be careful what you wish for...mix line moving north fast on the crack head of a model. something in between works just fine. Doubt i mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z NAM actually came in wetter for ORD with 1.23" of QPF. There definitely seemed to be an overall boost in moisture. Hopefully a trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z NAM actually came in wetter for ORD with 1.23" of QPF. Also saw a speck of 1.5+ near Alek's crib. Can't wait for the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If the NAM has come in weaker than it should, why does it drop a QPF bomb on OK? Convective feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Also saw a speck of 1.5+ near Alek's crib. Can't wait for the GFS.. lulz hard to take that run seriously considering the low strength compared to other guidance. I saw it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i am very, very pleased with the way things are looking for Schaumburg... Excited as a 6 year old on Christmas eve! It was somewhat depressing, i was 6 pages behind the thread. Everytime i would advance to the next page another page was added! I was making no progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleet and freezing rain with lightning quickly developing in SW OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM is junk. It is already undermodeling the strength of the surface low. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1.5mi vis sleet. SPECI KLAF 010217Z AUTO 08010KT 1 1/2SM UP BR BKN014 OVC020 M07/M08 A3010 RMK AO2 SNB01E10 P0002 Did see some flakes mixed in a little bit ago, alas... How much snow did you guys pick up today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How much snow did you guys pick up today? About an inch. Came down hot and heavy for a little over an hour. Since then, pl palooza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM is junk. It is already undermodeling the strength of the surface low. Toss it. Also late to the party on the developing TX convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A local OKC TV met just went on the air upping his forecasted snow totals to 10-18", stating that we have the potential to break our all-time record set during the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009. Wow, talk about going out on a limb. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think using a snow board with this storm will be nearly impossible. What I plan on doing is taking numerous readings throughout the yard and subtracting what I have now (around 4") and average from that. It's going to be quite difficult to tell exactly how much has come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 something in between works just fine. Doubt i mix. Oh I know. You're getting buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The NAM has a big blob looking 1008 closed contour into Texas and there are surface sites reporting 1002. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleet/Freezing Rain mixing in here.. Up to 1/2" of sleet now.. 9:20 PM...McCordsville reports 0.10 inch of ice with a mix of freezing rain and sleet falling. Carmel reports 0.75 inch of sleet with hazardous driving conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A local OKC TV met just went on the air upping his forecasted snow totals to 10-18", stating that we have the potential to break our all-time record set during the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009. Wow, talk about going out on a limb. :snowman: Let me guess, Mike Morgan??? But seriously, if there were a storm to break records, this would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 21Z SREF still way more amped than the NAM--including the NMM members. I don't understand the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Let me guess, Mike Morgan??? But seriously, if there were a storm to break records, this would be it. LOL, ding ding ding!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think using a snow board with this storm will be nearly impossible. What I plan on doing is taking numerous readings throughout the yard and subtracting what I have now (around 4") and average from that. It's going to be quite difficult to tell exactly how much has come down. Already had to do that tonight. Got an exact snow depth average before the snow (i.e. not rounding to the nearest inch) then did the subtraction at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Also late to the party on the developing TX convection. NAM did ok with one Noreaster this year--really well with another. Not sure what its issue is here since both of those other nor'easters also featured deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuskegonMan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GRR Update: WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENINGTHROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...IMPACTS... * TRAVEL AND COMMERCE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA MAY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. * HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE CLEARING OF ROADS DIFFICULT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GREATLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. * NUMEROUS EVENT CANCELLATIONS INCLUDING SCHOOL CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE... AS WELL AS FLIGHT DELAYS AND CANCELLATIONS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTALS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. * THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL BETWEEN THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO MID WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. * NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. * SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN SYSTEM TRACK AND SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AT HOME AND WORK DURING A MAJOR WINTER STORM ARE LOSS OF HEAT AND POWER...AND A SHORTAGE OF SUPPLIES IF YOU CAN NOT GET OUT. NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE YOU HAVE A FLASHLIGHT AND EXTRA BATTERIES...EXTRA FOOD THAT DOES NOT REQUIRE COOKING...AND PLENTY OF WATER. IF NECESSARY... REFUEL WITH HEATING FUEL NOW AND ENSURE THAT ANY EMERGENCY BACKUP HEAT SOURCES ARE WORKING AND CAPABLE OF VENTILATING PROPERLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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