Indystorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 During this first part of the storm I think crews will handle it pretty well, maybe some hour long delays. This is the upper-midwest, we deal with our snow Spoken like a true transplanted Floridian turned Wisconsin badger. Hope you get a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SREF guidance is amped up. I am leaning towards the NMM/ARW maps. I find it funny the NMM members are all way stronger than the operational NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Eeepps, 18z runs of GFS and NAM for KBTL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 quick question Baro would an earlier phase and more amped solution result in a deeper storm or a faster occlusion or both? i want those heights pumped up along the east coast, but at the same time i dont want this to occlude so far south. a deeper storm with the same general area of occlusion would be ideal. do you think that is more likely than what the models are showing, or would you lean towards a further south occlusion? its a delicate balancing act here with that menacing PV standing on my back deck. appreciate your thoughts as always. To the bolded--it likely would be more inline with the amped guidance like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 For those who missed it - and who are interested We are running the GREarth precip typing radar - couple of options http://weatherobserv...ar_grearth2.htm bookmarked thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Welcome - I have sorry to read the special statements from the NWS Offices - really feel sorry for everyone in the path of the ice storm. I don't think many people have any clue as to how severe this could be. Our region is still recovering and rebuilding the infrastructure. There are no words to describe what is going to happen in some of the areas about to be hit hard. Good luck and just know that life will get back to normal - no matter how bad it gets. Beau...I am just a bit to your southeast in Seymour, Indiana....you should come say HI!! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 slp in mexico now.. looks like it will come out in South central Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 To the bolded--it likely would be more inline with the amped guidance like the RGEM. very nice thankyou hope it plays out that way fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Look at the time stamp on the bottom of the image. My fault. Just looked at the part where he said it was the latest run, not the time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 For those who missed it - and who are interested We are running the GREarth precip typing radar - couple of options http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_grearth2.htm Definitely bookmarked that page...neat stuff. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My fault. Just looked at the part where he said it was the latest run, not the time stamp. Nah you're cool. I didn't realize it until Hawkeye said something about it being old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm here in Hamilton, Ontario, were they're getting rocked with LES right now. Forecast is for 4" tonight, 4-6" tomorrow, 6-10" tomorrow night. They'd be absolutely crippled with additional significant accumulations on Wednesday if it wasn't for the model trending more amped and further north with the ul low track. Gonna get Hamilton dryslotted on Wednesday me think, but not before 14-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 very nice thankyou hope it plays out that way fingers crossed OT but we're between runs and what not. How are your ears? Listened to a kinda oldish Martyn Fabric mix like 3 times today at work. Check it. http://www.mediafire.com/?ymmy4tqotyq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0502 PM FREEZING RAIN LANE 40.13N 88.85W 01/31/2011 M0.30 INCH DE WITT IL MESONET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yikes, Muncie is 19 with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm here in Hamilton, Ontario, were they're getting rocked with LES right now. Forecast is for 4" tonight, 4-6" tomorrow, 6-10" tomorrow night. They'd be absolutely crippled with additional significant accumulations on Wednesday if it wasn't for the model trending more amped and further north with the ul low track. Gonna get Hamilton dryslotted on Wednesday me think, but not before 14-20" where are you going to be on wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 OT but we're between runs and what not. How are your ears? Listened to a kinda oldish Martyn Fabric mix like 3 times today at work. Check it. http://www.mediafire.com/?ymmy4tqotyq yeah my ear is much better thx for the link checkin it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yikes, Muncie is 19 with freezing rain. intense, that's some hyper insta-freeze right there. SIgn of intense and somewhat thick warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA...NERN AND CNTRL OHIOCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 010056Z - 010600Z MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY FALLING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL ANDNRN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NE INTO OHIO THIS EVENING. FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET AT TIMES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-70CORRIDOR FROM INDIANAPOLIS TO COLUMBUS THEN NEWD TOWARD MANSFIELDAND CANTON BY 03Z-06Z. FURTHER SOUTH OF I-70 AND TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA FROM NEAR FORT WAYNE TO FINDLAY AND TOLEDO...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH RATESAPPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Fascinating stuff. This sounds like it could have implications for us here in the Southern Plains with regards to placement of heaviest axis of snow. Short-range models are shifting heavy snows further west into Oklahoma. Would you agree with this assessment? Maybe a little--but it prolly won't be too much farther W than progged. Central OK still looks like the prime target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ing Yikes, Muncie is 19 with freezing rain. Yes, I just walked the street, it, as my buddy says, sounds like someone "pouring rice krispies" outside, yet, there is heavy ZR also. As I mentioned earlier, all from this first wave, I am quite sure folks are ill-prepared. We spoke to people all day and it was "oh you are crying wolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New Video Forecast For SE Michigan: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 intense, that's some hyper insta-freeze right there. SIgn of intense and somewhat thick warm layer. ILX was +2 on the sounding at 825 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 where are you going to be on wednesday? Supposed to be in Hamilton but I imagine everything's going to be shut down. I'll have to settle for Etobicoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yeah my ear is much better thx for the link checkin it out Good to hear. It's a pretty great mix, somewhat eclectic track selection and high quality mixing, nice peaks and valleys. The drop at 38 or so is pretty huge if you have a good system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yes, I just walked the street, it, as my buddy says, sounds like someone "pouring rice krispies" outside, yet, there is heavy ZR also. As I mentioned earlier, all from this first wave, I am quite sure folks are ill-prepared. We spoke to people all day and it was "oh you are crying wolf. Other than the big tornado outbreaks, I don't think it's a stretch to say that this could become one of Indiana's biggest natural disasters in a worst case scenario. 20 here with unknown precip being reported at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Other than the big tornado outbreaks, I don't think it's a stretch to say that this could become one of Indiana's biggest natural disasters in a worst case scenario. 20 here with unknown precip being reported at LAF. Seems like the Indy metro area is going to be ground zero for the freezing rain event. In term of socioeconomic impact, you're probably right and by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Other than the big tornado outbreaks, I don't think it's a stretch to say that this could become one of Indiana's biggest natural disasters in a worst case scenario. 20 here with unknown precip being reported at LAF. Do you think we get above freezing in this event Hoosier? I mean, the lows going way west. I dont know what to think. Its nasty right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hey guys, good luck out there. I'm excited as hell for you all and I'm about 1500 miles away! For those areas in the ice..whew..seriously stay safe...Indianapolis looks wrecked from what I'm seeing. Man, I wish this were a weekend event..I contemplated flying to Chicago yesterday, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Man, I wish this were a weekend event..I contemplated flying to Chicago yesterday, lol. we could have boozed, shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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