natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Can someone post the link to the SPC winter weather products/mesoscale models? Thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0518 PM SNOW S MADELIA 44.05N 94.42W 01/31/2011 M12.0 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 just measured a hair under 1.5 inches on the roof of my car man oh man do i wish you and i could trade place for the next 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 IND rolling with their Winter Storm blog: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=63391&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Can someone post the link to the SPC winter weather products/mesoscale models? Thx! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That ice would really suck. Too bad there has to be any ...just widespread 20+ inch totals of fresh white powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That ice would really suck. Too bad there has to be any ...just widespread 20+ inch totals of fresh white powder Frank did the Euro show La crosse getting in on any action from the main event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 According to the radar I should be right in the middle of a light to moderate snow, yet I don't see a flake in the sky! The wind is picking up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't believe what I am seeing--per latest WV and RUC PV maps--these individual PV maxes are nearly already phased. The southern stream has just begin to tilt negative too. I personally believe the most amped up models will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Being outside of the eye of this storm. The thing that I look forward to most with this storm is the experts now casting this thing in this thread. You guys are great have learned so much from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't believe what I am seeing--per latest WV and RUC PV maps--these individual PV maxes are nearly already phased. The southern stream has just begin to tilt negative too. I personally believe the most amped up models will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Got about 1-1.5 here so far with the WAA snows. 18z GFS shows .35 qpf for the waa event tonight and .4 for the 2nd storm. Should be a solid 9-10 inches total hopefully. Badger, how's it doing in Madison right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The Skilling RPM model graphic that was posted a few pages back is a day old, which is why the totals looked funky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this from KC discussion FROM A MODEL PREFERENCE PERSPECTIVE...CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLES AND THEIR PLUMES WITH SOME GUIDANCE BY THE 12Z GFS. WHILE IT MAY BE HELPFUL...FEEL THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM GUIDANCE IS THROWING TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE INTO ITS SOLNS TO BE OF USE. THE GEM/EC REMAIN TROUBLING THOUGH WITH SUCH OVERDEVELOPED UPR JET COUPLETS THAT THEY PULL THE UPR WAVE FURTHER NW AND DEVELOP AN INCREDIBLE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND AND TROWAL WELL INTO NWRN MO. WHILE THIS IS FEASIBLE...NOT A TON OF SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN AND TREND QPF A BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. i dont understrand their reasoning here......wouldnt it be expected that the ensembles have lower res than the operationals? or are they talking about short range modeling here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't believe what I am seeing--per latest WV and RUC PV maps--these individual PV maxes are nearly already phased. The southern stream has just begin to tilt negative too. I personally believe the most amped up models will be right. Good stuff baroclinic I look forward toyour analysis when you really get dialed into this thing in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't believe what I am seeing--per latest WV and RUC PV maps--these individual PV maxes are nearly already phased. The southern stream has just begin to tilt negative too. I personally believe the most amped up models will be right. So probably on the western edge of the guidance as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The backup/developmental RUC has LAF turning over to freezing rain tonight and continuing for the main event...although I'm not sure if the precip type plots (or anything on that model for that matter) should be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hendricks county (west of indy) has already reported a tenth of an inch of ice shortly before 6pm. Working 12 hour shifts for the next five days. Ill keep you guys posted on downtown indy reports since ill pretty much be living here this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ice pellets coming down pretty hard now for about the last 5 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/ Strong winds expected to whip up waves of 14 to 20 feet on Lake Michigan may result in lakeshore flooding Tuesday night and Wednesday. For that reason, the National Weather Service has issued a Lakeshore Flood Watch from Chicago to Sheboygan, Wisconsin. In addition to the extreme wave heights, northeast winds increasing to gale force will also raise the lake level by half a foot. Sections of Lake Shore Drive and Sheridan Road may experience flooding. I live between LSD and Sheridan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The Skilling RPM model graphic that was posted a few pages back is a day old, which is why the totals looked funky. Incorrect. He posted it about 45mins ago on his facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hendricks county (east of indy) has already reported a tenth of an inch of ice shortly before 6pm. Working 12 hour shifts for the next five days. Ill keep you guys posted on downtown indy reports since ill pretty much be living here this week. West of Indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't believe what I am seeing--per latest WV and RUC PV maps--these individual PV maxes are nearly already phased. The southern stream has just begin to tilt negative too. I personally believe the most amped up models will be right. Fascinating stuff. This sounds like it could have implications for us here in the Southern Plains with regards to placement of heaviest axis of snow. Short-range models are shifting heavy snows further west into Oklahoma. Would you agree with this assessment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FWIW...23z RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't believe what I am seeing--per latest WV and RUC PV maps--these individual PV maxes are nearly already phased. The southern stream has just begin to tilt negative too. I personally believe the most amped up models will be right. quick question Baro would an earlier phase and more amped solution result in a deeper storm or a faster occlusion or both? i want those heights pumped up along the east coast, but at the same time i dont want this to occlude so far south. a deeper storm with the same general area of occlusion would be ideal. do you think that is more likely than what the models are showing, or would you lean towards a further south occlusion? its a delicate balancing act here with that menacing PV standing on my back deck. appreciate your thoughts as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good stuff baroclinic I look forward toyour analysis when you really get dialed into this thing in the next few hours. This is going to be exciting to watch unfold! When there is still such model discrepancy and such an unstable situation--the details matter and things can really change fast. So probably on the western edge of the guidance as well? I think so--typically these bombs track a tad farther W than modeled. I don't see a NAM coup happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 West of Indy Hahaha thanks! Its been a long day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Incorrect. He posted it about 45mins ago on his facebook page. Look at the time stamp on the bottom of the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FWIW...23z RUC This is just all so ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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