goknights Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest snowfall map from Skilling's RPM model Does this model output show something similar to what the euro was showing today in regards to the western extent of the storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z GFS for TOL: QPF: 1.33" Snowfall: 14.5" Ord has. 3 more precip than dtw but double the amounts. Guess ratios over there are going to be good despite the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Maybe flurries down my way..not much at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EPIC. Oh yeah, Indy looks to be F'd in the A. Going to be quite the ice storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have a gut feeling that Indy has a disaster unfolding. Just starting to think that will be ground zero in terms of freezing rain. There's a big population in harms way that's for sure. Hardest hit areas could take weeks to recover if not longer. I really fear what we could see out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have a gut feeling that Indy has a disaster unfolding. Just starting to think that will be ground zero in terms of freezing rain. Yes, and it could be much worse than the 09 event here. With the progged winds it might end up looking like a war zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest snowfall map from Skilling's RPM model That would be a disappointment for some (ahem, me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL/CNTRL IND CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 312045Z - 010145Z MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS E CNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN...WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS...WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. ACROSS NORTH CNTRL IND...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD OCCUR AFTER 22Z. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER CNTRL IL CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND SHIFT EWD...WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING FARTHER WSW INTO E CNTRL MO. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 285-295 K LAYER ATOP A BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE 19Z RUN OF THE RUC MODEL...AS A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAX STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST OF AN 850-MB VORT CENTER. CONVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAX WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO INCREASE FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND AUGMENT THE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINTAINED AND REGENERATE UPSTREAM. WITH WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC BELOW FREEZING...A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 3-4C IN THE 850-880-MB LAYER...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO MELT AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE WARM NOSE BEFORE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM NOSE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD /AOB 3C/ TO ALLOW FOR SLEET...WITH SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS N CNTRL IN. THE 15Z SREF RUN INDICATES THAT SNOWFALL COULD BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY IN THIS REGION...AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING POTENTIALLY SUPPORTS BANDED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..COHEN/ROGERS.. 01/31/2011 ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Convection is just beginning to pop off in Texas. A historic storm is about to get going here soon. It is NOWcast time. I'll take the under on full sleep the next two nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does this model output show something similar to what the euro was showing today in regards to the western extent of the storm?? I think his model is biased to Illinois, including Chicago, and central Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 heavy heavy snow here with huge flakes in that spec of 40 DBZ got to be 3 inch per hour rates....will only last a few min though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Man this is going to be bad.............really bad! Freezing rain already under way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It certainly will be interesting to see what happens when that shield in C IL gets here. Think we're still getting pingers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'll take the under on full sleep the next two nights. You know me well I am not going to sleep at all. I am going to watch this beast. I am a little nervous already just watching things unfold. This is likely going to be epic with massive socio-economic impacts and one which will be studied long after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest snowfall map from Skilling's RPM model at least from my perspective for this area. Bowme would probably agree. I'm just hoping to get a foot for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That would be a disappointment for some (ahem, me) RPM is a lifetime .150 hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow dry air is really being pulled SW from Canada. PTK (Pontiac) is now 12F/-06F and ARB (Ann Arbor) is 15F/-03F....most dew point depressions in southern lower are about 18F on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Congrats to you all. Enjoy this storm it should be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what did skilli have to say about that map....is that what he is going with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skel Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Congrats from The Eastern Shore. All rain here I am Jealous ahhhhhh Lets see how it turns out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 6" in 3hr extreme giddyness doesn't even start to explain my mood Where do you get those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what did skilli have to say about that map....is that what he is going with? Not sure, cause if you look @ a video on the blog site, the amounts look quite a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have heeded Beau's advice/blog, have over 20g of gas for the generator, cash in lieu of cc, but I am worrying it may still not be enough. Our windows are frozen solid, and this is not even the main wave. The returns keep filling in over SW/C Illinois. BTW Beau, your postings have been very helpful. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 wow...don't know how much more we'll get but sidewalks, side roads, parking lots are already in bad shape...east side of indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There's a big population in harms way that's for sure. Hardest hit areas could take weeks to recover if not longer. I really fear what we could see out of there. Agreed, Metro Louisville had the severe ice-storm in 2009 and many people were without power for days. And that was with 6 inches of snow and about an inch of ice. LMK only has 1.4 million in the Metro area, Indy has 2.3 million. Going to be interesting to see how long people will be without power. Yes, and it could be much worse than the 09 event here. With the progged winds it might end up looking like a war zone. Yeah, I agree. We had 2-3 inches of ice but did not have the wind. Plus temperatures after the storm are going to be freezing. Temps were back above freezing 2 days after the storm and near 60 4 or 5 days after, so yes the impact will be much worse with the winds and temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 DTX upped their totals for the WAA snows tonight. They went with a WWA for Monroe/Lenawee counties with 2-4" and 1-3" elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 EPIC. Oh yeah, Indy looks to be F'd in the A. you are a true poet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 just measured a hair under 1.5 inches on the roof of my car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mts in E. New Mexico reporting snow with frequent lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Where do you get those maps? Pretty sure here: http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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