Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Fox 2: 8-10" WXYZ-10-15" WDIV: 12-20" Guarantee you they will lower them when they read dtx tonight /tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hopefully Hoosier is out on the road right now listening to the radio for "Party like it's 1999". Big flakes have returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still good to see these 15-25:1 ratios coming out of early observations. This is a really good test for the big storm. What do you think of the NAM still laying goose eggs? I checked the SREF and they are all amped--especially the ARW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Fox 2: 8-10" WXYZ-10-15" WDIV: 12-20" I agree with the bottom two.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 and the downward trend continues for nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just north of Muncie, started as sleet and ZR, and in the past 20 minutes, large flakes are winning out. Drive is covered already. Much rather to have this, than the amount of ice being forecast for this part of the state. 2005 was bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Really nice frontogenetic band getting organized from about here back across Prairie du Chien to IA. Meanwhile, 2 vigorous LES bands, one centered south of Milwaukee and one over Port Washington, are converging over the area. So many factors coming together at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just went and measured 0.8", all falling in the last hour. Very impressive. SN-/PL mix at the moment. Seems big returns=big payoff so far, lighter returns=mix. Might be a good preview of what's to come for this area. Man was was really ripping for a while. Some quarter to half dollar size flakes for sure. I was out around Purdue and there's already gridlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What do you think of the NAM still laying goose eggs? I checked the SREF and they are all amped--especially the ARW members. I think this is one situation where the power of ensembles is going to win. I believe you even mentioned that before. The NAM running by itself might be concerning to some, but there's obviously some issues relating to both its initialization and especially the convective schemes today. Could the NAM end up scoring a coup? Sure, but I'll bet you're more likely to scratch off a 100 or 500 bucks on your next lotto ticket than have it come out on top. The support against it from the other models is soooo overwhelming. Even the oft-terrible ETA members on the SREF are trending towards the other 3 in the SREF suite. Today is an example of why I often find it extremely frustrating to use it as serious guidance. It's supposed to handle situations like this better, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Badger- Some family has to fly out of MSN tomorrow to Florida... could be iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Man was was really ripping for a while. Some quarter to half dollar size flakes for sure. I was out around Purdue and there's already gridlock. Yes it was. I was driving down Creasy at the time and it was crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 About 3 inches of fluff here in southeast minnesota so far. Maybe could eke out another 2 inches tonight. See to be pretty solid ratio I would guess about 20:1 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Badger- Some family has to fly out of MSN tomorrow to Florida... could be iffy. During this first part of the storm I think crews will handle it pretty well, maybe some hour long delays. This is the upper-midwest, we deal with our snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think this is one situation where the power of ensembles is going to win. I believe you even mentioned that before. The NAM running by itself might be concerning to some, but there's obviously some issues relating to both its initialization and especially the convective schemes today. Could the NAM end up scoring a coup? Sure, but I'll bet you're more likely to scratch off a 100 or 500 bucks on your next lotto ticket than have it come out on top. The support against it from the other models is soooo overwhelming. Even the oft-terrible ETA members on the SREF are trending towards the other 3 in the SREF suite. Today is an example of why I often find it extremely frustrating to use it as serious guidance. It's supposed to handle situations like this better, but... It is a head scratcher no doubt. RGEM is not too far from reality anymore--WRF-ARW members are looking pretty realistic too. Watching that southern stream start to pivot now over the 4 corners is getting me antsy--this storm looks like a doozy--glad the word has gotten out. When I see the coupled jet structure and deep convection aiding pressure falls--my first thought is rapid and extreme intensification. Perhaps the ARW members use better dynamic solvers than the NAM WRF-NMM--but I agree- I don't see the NAM scoring a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What do you think of the NAM still laying goose eggs? I checked the SREF and they are all amped--especially the ARW members. Looking at snowfall means in 12 hours, I can't ever remember seeing such a large swath of 15+ inches. Even in the big coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking at snowfall means in 12 hours, I can't ever remember seeing such a large swath of 15+ inches. Even in the big coastals. Christmas storm '09 had a big swath of huge totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS crushes ORD on Bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 up to 1/4 inch of ice already reported in the STL area and S IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 have to save images like these...wow. 15" wide band....in 12hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Christmas storm '09 had a big swath of huge totals. would somebody run those numbers..and for PIA AND OTHER CITIES PLEASE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 have to save images like these...wow. 15" wide band....in 12hrs We're gonna get BURIED.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubfan61201 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 have to save images like these...wow. 15" wide band....in 12hrs Glad I found this site--very excellent discussion! I'm curious why that graph only goes up to 15 inches. It seems the graph could have a narrower 16-18 or 18-20 band in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS for ORD: QPF: 1.53" Snowfall: 28.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Radar starting to fill in west of Milwaukee. Hopefully this is the start of our 2-4" of snowfall for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes it was. I was driving down Creasy at the time and it was crawling. Like you said, this first part may be a preview for tomorrow. We're gonna have to rip like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 some heavier pingers now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I dont know if we will ever see maps like this around here again for a long time...here is the 1"/hr and 2"/hr probs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Glad I found this site--very excellent discussion! I'm curious why that graph only goes up to 15 inches. It seems the graph could have a narrower 16-18 or 18-20 band in there. ya easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 probs of greater than 3"/hr rates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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