Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks TS12. Cold air trying to win the battle with the WAA aloft. Some huge flakes mixed with finer ones at the moment. Fascinating. EDIT: Big flakes winning. Freakin' awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Stebo or other DTX area mets what are you thinking for Detroit City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MSN had 1.0" officially as of noon from .04" liquid, which is a 25:1 ratio, just as the GFS BUFKIT has been suggesting. Now we're up to .09" liquid. Things stopped for a little around 3 pm, but now things have begun to crank again and there's alot upstream on radar, hours and hours of snow at least. Also the lake effect is getting more vigorous and definitely adding to things even out here. As for impacts so far, some roads are covered completely, while most are a slop fest from the salt. Definitely tough conditions and we're barely into this, plenty of sirens can be heard around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS shunts the heaviest snow band east of OKC...I hope this is a hiccup, as HPC & GFS 12z ensembles are calling for 0.75"-1" of QPF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Stebo or other DTX area mets what are you thinking for Detroit City? If I had to pick a number right now as a general for the entire metro I'd go with 14.5" as an average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Stebo or other DTX area mets what are you thinking for Detroit City? I would say 14-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MSN had 1.0" officially as of noon from .04" liquid, which is a 25:1 ratio, just as the GFS BUFKIT has been suggesting. Now we're up to .09" liquid. Things stopped for a little around 3 pm, but now things have begun to crank again and there's alot upstream on radar, hours and hours of snow at least. Also the lake effect is getting more vigorous and definitely adding to things even out here. As for impacts so far, some roads are covered completely, while most are a slop fest from the salt. Definitely tough conditions and we're barely into this, plenty of sirens can be heard around the city. Those are some HIGH ratios. Do you think the more robust ratios indicated by models or conservative ratios mentioned by the offices are closer to reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If I had to pick a number right now as a general for the entire metro I'd go with 14.5" as an average. 10-16" should be the call for the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWIAWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Blizzard Warning for most of Central Iowa with 5-8 inches possible: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA420 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011...MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA TUESDAYAFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....A POTENT TWO PART WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT IOWATHROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILLBRING INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO MUCH OF THE STATEINTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM HASTHE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOWFALLAND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OFIOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD WINDCHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BYWEDNESDAY MORNING.IAZ038-039-048>050-010300-/O.UPG.KDMX.WS.A.0003.110201T1800Z-110202T1800Z//O.NEW.KDMX.BZ.W.0002.110201T1800Z-110202T1800Z//O.CON.KDMX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110201T1800Z/GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRUNDY CENTER...WATERLOO...AMES...MARSHALLTOWN...TOLEDO420 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CSTTUESDAY......BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CSTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CSTWEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY.* SHORT TERM TRENDS...INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THREE TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE BY NOON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE WIND BLOWN SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.* STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA BY WEDNESDAY.* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTH WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CREATING WHITE OUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.* IMPACTS...ROADS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SNOW PACKED AND SLICK. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DANGEROUS...LIFE THREATENING AND NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 10-16" should be the call for the entire area Maybe....I would go more so 12-16 for the area south of 59 if not 69.I think they went off of the NAM and agree with Stebbo and Baro....I would go more with the GFS on the QPF. I am a little concerned with the dew point depressions pushing 19F at the surface tight now but the event tonight should help moisten things up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like i picked up anout an inch already..time for an obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Those are some HIGH ratios. Do you think the more robust ratios indicated by models or conservative ratios mentioned by the offices are closer to reality? For at least the first few hours of the storm it would appear the GFS has verified ratio wise. Might have some to do with the LES being thrown in, which has inherently high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stryker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah Im in Morton at work and we have a good inch or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If I had to pick a number right now as a general for the entire metro I'd go with 14.5" as an average. I would say 14-16. nice agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Badger- 2.4 inches of snow for .16 precip... That may be off because I think the snow measurement was taken on the bluff, while the precip is taken at the airport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Blizzard Warnings from OKC to CHI and MIL Winter Storm Warnings from NM to Boston 24 states are either covered by a Winter Storm or Blizzard Warning right now Pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTZILLINOIS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah Im in Morton at work and we have a good inch or so here. For those of us less versed in all of the models, what will the biggest determining factor be for those of us in central Illinois (Macon County to be exact) between sleet/ice and the snow? I've seen 3 different forecasts and they range from 6 inches to 12 or more. Seems most think the heaviest part of the snowstorm is going to stay west/north of us (but only by about 15-30 miles). Is it the temperatures higher in the atmosphere? Track of the main storm? Any thoughts/predictions would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Light precipitation falling in Muncie. Looks like a mix of everything at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Apparently Brandon Roux (WDIV/Detroit's NBC affiliate) really jumped the gun and is calling for 15-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah Im in Morton at work and we have a good inch or so here. 2 new Peoria posters sign ups today I am no longer alone.. welcome This link(part 7) was posted in the Peoria journal star whoever closers out this thread and starts part 8 please be sure to put a link at the end of part 7.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Blizzard Warnings from OKC to CHI and MIL Winter Storm Warnings from NM to Boston 24 states are either covered by a Winter Storm or Blizzard Warning right now Pretty incredible. Yea and dtx is the last location to update to warnings. No surprise there. Sorry if anyone here works for them or knows them but they have to be the most conservative and innaccurate location. Why are they always the last location. I am embarrassed for them when grr most of the time issues watches and warnings before dtx does. I understand its going to snow regardless whether they issue warnings when warranted but still. Rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just went and measured 0.8", all falling in the last hour. Very impressive. SN-/PL mix at the moment. Seems big returns=big payoff so far, lighter returns=mix. Might be a good preview of what's to come for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stryker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2 new Peoria posters sign ups today I am no longer alone.. welcome This link(part 7) was posted in the Peoria journal star whoever closers out this thread and starts part 8 please be sure to put a link at the end of part 7.... Yeah saw you post on pjstar. This site is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea and dtx is the last location to update to warnings. No surprise there. Sorry if anyone here works for them or knows them but they have to be the most conservative and innaccurate location. Why are they always the last location. I am embarrassed for them when grr most of the time issues watches and warnings before dtx does. I understand its going to snow regardless whether they issue warnings when warranted but still. Rant over. Yeah, and fox 2's Rich Ludderman just said " most locations will receive 8-10" with SOME spots MAYBE reaching 12," Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I took some prelim before pics from Foster St. Beach. Was walking the dog which made them sketchy, but you get the idea. Some real large glacier like chunks piling up on the beach. You can see that the beach is 10ft lower than the surrounding terrain with LSD running just to the west. This is the area i'll be taking a pics/vid from. Hopefully things are still going good at daybreak because night snow vids kind of suck. I think you can imagine this location with 2"+ per hour rates and 45+ mph gusts. Pics are looking east/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, and fox 2's Rich Ludderman just said " most locations will receive 8-10" with SOME spots MAYBE reaching 12," Maybe because all local Mets follow what dtx says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea and dtx is the last location to update to warnings. No surprise there. Sorry if anyone here works for them or knows them but they have to be the most conservative and innaccurate location. Why are they always the last location. I am embarrassed for them when grr most of the time issues watches and warnings before dtx does. I understand its going to snow regardless whether they issue warnings when warranted but still. Rant over. GRR!?! bahaha! GRR is the most stubborn to change their forecasts...when a big storm is coming, they wait until the last minute. When a storm is supposed to come and obviously failed to materialize, they STILL keep the forecast the same and keep the warnings up and say "something" will happen to give us the amounts. I actually find them quite frustrating, but that's just my opinion. No doubt they are good meteorologists...just don't seem very confident in following the actual weather that's occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Interestingly enough the 18z NAM gives CLE 16.3" of snow and DTW 16.3" as well. The only difference is that 11.1" of that snow at CLE falls by 9am tomorrow morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maybe because all local Mets follow what dtx says. Fox 2: 8-10" WXYZ-10-15" WDIV: 12-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Badger- 2.4 inches of snow for .16 precip... That may be off because I think the snow measurement was taken on the bluff, while the precip is taken at the airport... Still good to see these 15-25:1 ratios coming out of early observations. This is a really good test for the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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