A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1-1.25 in 6hrs for parts of mo. Talk about impossible to maintain. You just pull the plows off the road at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 500mb VORT looks stronger. A quite bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wish I was with my sister in Tulsa right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Detroits top 20 snowstorms since 1880 01.) 24.5” – April 6, 1886 02.) 19.3” – December 1/2, 1974 03.) 16.1” – March 4/5, 1900 04.) 14.0” – February 28/March 1, 1900 05.) 13.8” – December 18/19, 1929 06.) 12.8” – February 12/13, 1894 07.) 12.6” – February 19, 1908 08.) 12.5” – January 31/February 1, 1881 09.) 12.3” – March 3/4, 1895 10.) 12.3” – February 9, 1911 11.) 12.2” – January 22, 2005 12.) 12.1” – January 13/14, 1927 13.) 11.8” – January 30/31, 1982 14.) 11.4” – March 4/5, 1899 15.) 11.4” – January 13/14, 1910 16.) 11.3” – January 2/3, 1999 17.) 11.2” – February 3/4, 1901 18.) 11.2” – December 19/20, 1973 19.) 11.1” – January 14, 1992 20.) 11.1” – March 7/8, 1931 Looks like we might end up in the top 5 maybe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM still looks weaker than the rest of the guidance, still dealing with some convective feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM still correcting itself. Up to 55 kts in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM still looks weaker than the rest of the guidance, still dealing with some convective feedback? Takes a while to fully correct itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 .10" or so of ice...school already canceled and we won't even start seeing flakes until later tonight. this could be 3 days of closings...ice storm today, snowstorm tomorrow, blowing snow and brutal cold wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 lol at the NAM. At least it didn't head any further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Takes a while to fully correct itself. Upper levels much better but hasn't really translated down to a much stronger storm at the surface. We'll see if 18z continues to ramp up, but the NAM may never fully figure things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 lol at the NAM. At least it didn't head any further NW. had the qpf further nw in kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM wind fields still correcting itself. Non-linear development can't be corrected in one or two runs--still though--ridiculous over N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 had the qpf further nw in kansas It was definitely a strange run, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Better Qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM wind fields still correcting itself. Non-linear development can't be corrected in one or two runs--still though--ridiculous over N IL. The Harrison-Crib is so going to go over 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Upper levels much better but hasn't really translated down to a much stronger storm at the surface. We'll see if 18z continues to ramp up, but the NAM may never fully figure things out. Give it time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Give it time. I'm not too concerned, i think the sensible weather for MBY is pretty locked and loaded, foot plus, 40+ mph gusts. It would be nice if we could peg 60 on some gusts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM still spits out 1.25-1.50. I think ORD is 1.00-1.25. I just want a 20 mile shift in the heavy to the NW and I will be straight. Still pulls in 12-18 for general Chicago area. 15:1 ratio that could be 2 feet almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm not too concerned, i think the sensible weather for MBY is pretty locked and loaded, foot plus, 40+ mph gusts. It would be nice if we could peg 60 on some gusts though. It is going to be ridic level weather. 60G are a major threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It is going to be ridic level weather. 60G are a major threat. video will be taken, probably not uploaded until later wednesday night, but i'll walk down to the lakefront and get some of the action. I do hate that the best should be hitting when i want to be sleeping. Despite its issues, a decent lake effect signal on the NAM at the tail end, could bump totals 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow. The upper level height field phase/tilt remain ridiculous. I don't believe what I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this looks somewhat similar to early January 1999. 17" for Toronto, 9-10" for Ottawa. i would be satisfied with 8" given the track. Hopefully it all works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Another run of the NAM, another reduction in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I appreciate ur passion for this storm but why are u so into the NAM? It will hardly make much of a difference besides wind maybe. Multiple accounts... see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 .10" or so of ice...school already canceled and we won't even start seeing flakes until later tonight. this could be 3 days of closings...ice storm today, snowstorm tomorrow, blowing snow and brutal cold wednesday ice p**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this looks somewhat similar to early January 1999. 17" for Toronto, 9-10" for Ottawa. i would be satisfied with 8" given the track. Hopefully it all works out. Won't get even close to Jan 1999. We're kind of damned if we do, damned if we don't right now. NAM like solution keeps the sfc low too far south for the best precipitation. Rest of the other guidance with the more explosive development/further north track, means the low occludes more rapidly and we get the scraps (relatively speaking, it would still be a decent snowstorm). Think I'm rooting for the latter scenario. Get a nice trowal signature/700mb deformation zone over us and I'll take my chances with a decaying sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Multiple accounts... see ya. Thanks--I was trying to remain cool and let things work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this is pretty sick right here, hope we can add another 10mph to the winds here on the lakefront. Tuesday Night: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 17. Wind chill values as low as -3. Very windy, with a northeast wind between 30 and 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.Wednesday: Snow showers before 6am, then snow and widespread blowing snow before noon, then snow likely and widespread blowing snow after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. windchills of -3 with thundersnow, wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Snow began at MSN at 4 am. Currently snow is filling the air, medium sized flakes with a few bigger ones. Everything besides some of the road is already getting covered, not surprising with a temp of 18 °F. Based on radar we're getting a combo of frontogenetic and lake effect snow. Looks like a fairly strong frontogenetic band is gonna get here within the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Snow began at MSN at 4 am. Currently snow is filling the air, medium sized flakes with a few bigger ones. Everything besides some of the road is already getting covered, not surprising with a temp of 18 °F. Based on radar we're getting a combo of frontogenetic and lake effect snow. Looks like a fairly strong frontogenetic band is gonna get here within the next couple hours. nice radar loop with returns moving both east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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