Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Much softer gradient. Excellent defo band. looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS brings the 1.5" liquid line up to about I-88 and the eastern CWA then to about ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 snowing right now and the with how light this stuff is it should add up pretty good tonight. I think 5" would be good for tonight and i am saying 7" for tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DTX and GRR holding back on this one is a bit confusing, and their reasoning for lowering the totals I don't agree with but it's their call on it. That being said the 18z runs nudged back up on the QPF. I think GRR hugs the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS looks VERY nice.. The northern fringe people are gonna like it. I was ready to start drinking if it came in bad.... Now I just might start drinking because it came in a relief. Makes the wait for the 0z models a lot easier now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DTX and GRR holding back on this one is a bit confusing, and their reasoning for lowering the totals I don't agree with but it's their call on it. That being said the 18z runs nudged back up on the QPF. Yeah I agree....they have been saying over 8 or basically 6 to 10 for a bit now and I still think an area wide 12-16 with some areas up to 18 are still highly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS is really amping up the heights even more on the coast......shoving that PV nicely away....loving this trend since 12z for the northern edges and eastern lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS is still amped. NAM still has no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Short while it lasted, but awesome. Here come the pingers as the flake size has decreased dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I believe the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are the exact same regarding qpf at ORD...1.53" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 151 User(s) are reading this topic 86 members, 57 guests, 8 anonymous users Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think GRR hugs the NAM... DTX did the problem is it is having issues, and is by far the weakest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS did come in a tad bit to the NW it looks like. I don't know and I am glad I am not forecasting this. There is gonna be a tight graident somewhere, and who knows where it sets up at this point. I guess I could see where they get 4-7 for tuesday night, and with 40-60 mph gusts, that could be bad. Only thing I don't understand is the 4-7 for tonight/tommorow. It's hardly snowing right now, and radar returns don't look all that great to the west of here. Unless they think le will kick in later and might make its way overhere? Who knows. I do know the text forecast for MKE had only 1 inch of accumulation expected TODAY, and that has been about perfectly on track. Maybe even a tad more. Hopefully we get the predicted 2-4 for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DTX and GRR holding back on this one is a bit confusing, and their reasoning for lowering the totals I don't agree with but it's their call on it. That being said the 18z runs nudged back up on the QPF. Dont get it...left speechless really...On average all three models has a solid 1.25" QPF for SEMI with Ratios around 13 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am surprised the NAM is having so many problems. Usual this is the type of setup it gets off of like the RGEM is. I am favoring the GFS/Euro until the NAM gets off its crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This thing already has an impressive satellite signature. You can see the deep 300 hpa trough carved out over the intermountain W and the individual PV maxes and the southern stream ready to tilt negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I believe the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are the exact same regarding qpf at ORD...1.53" liquid. They are. Can't have any better agreement than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 p-falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 -3F and sunny in Rapid City, SD...with 40mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just want to put this down as the start of this whole thing for here locally. Will go back at some point in the future to see where/how it all started. SPECI KLAF 312143Z 07016KT 1/2SM SN VV013 M06/M10 A3018 RMK AO2 SNB17 P0000 METAR KLAF 312154Z 09015KT 1/4SM +SN VV007 M06/M09 A3017 RMK AO2 SNB17 SLP226 P0000 T10611094 SPECI KLAF 312209Z 08013KT 1/2SM SN VV005 M06/M09 A3017 RMK AO2 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This thing already has an impressive satellite signature. You can see the deep 300 hpa trough carved out over the intermountain W and the individual PV maxes and the southern stream ready to tilt negative. I was looking at this exact same image with some of the forecasters and LOT last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have to nerd out and post this again--the tropospheric flow tilt/phase signature on the DT maps is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DTX did the problem is it is having issues, and is by far the weakest model. On the Jan 12/13th storm the NAM was the most consistent and showed a solid 3-6 isolated 8" amounts eastern Macomb and St.Clair counties which we got it. They went against and said it was to wet the air was to dry... So they went with the GFS called for 2-3 inches 12hrs before the storm, now there going with it when its clearly the most inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Have no clue why DTX is being SO conservative. I know that 6-12" is our usual threshold for a storm, but this is different. Oh well, their loss lol. I do note however they are not including tonights first wave into the 8-12" warning, so technically even they are going with storm totals of 9-14". I know dendritic growth sounds like its not perfect, but come on, temps in the teens and insane snowfall rates...this is NOT a 10-1 ratio snow! Also, why no warning yet? I know the public is already going crazy at grocery stores as is the media, but umm..why downplaying it? The 1am-7am timeframe on Wed morning looks absolutely epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dont get it...left speechless really...On average all three models has a solid 1.25" QPF for SEMI with Ratios around 13 to 1. Is their call but I think in Lake Orion you will get a solid 11-14....you will get double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jendoc Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 X = me I am Northwest of you but still inside the red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just want to put this down as the start of this whole thing for here locally. Will go back at some point in the future to see where/how it all started. SPECI KLAF 312143Z 07016KT 1/2SM SN VV013 M06/M10 A3018 RMK AO2 SNB17 P0000 METAR KLAF 312154Z 09015KT 1/4SM +SN VV007 M06/M09 A3017 RMK AO2 SNB17 SLP226 P0000 T10611094 SPECI KLAF 312209Z 08013KT 1/2SM SN VV005 M06/M09 A3017 RMK AO2 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am favoring the GFS/Euro until the NAM gets off its crack. I have a feeling the NAM will have a sudden big run after all these flat looking ones. Just glanced at the vorticity fields and the convective feedback is still crippling the dynamic fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Blizzard Warnings for far western Illinois and Eastern Iowa.. :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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