Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 329 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 FOR A PERIOD OF TIME IF WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES TO 4IN/HR. 4"/hr? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It begins! Grand Rapids largest single storm snowfall is 16 inches and the consensus is 12-14 inches now, 10 conservative. Maybe with a little overperforming and good ratios we can beat that? On campus, all of the snow piles have been replowed 2-3 feet back in preparation for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The record snowfall for Ottumwa, IA is 15.0" on 2/13/78 . Not sure if thats the daily or a given storm. That could be broken with a little NW jog. However a 18 to1 ratio may just give us a RECORD! 15" is 24 hour total, 16" is storm total from what I saw. My response to you was a few posts back, probably got lost in the shuffle of BZ.Ws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Adjusting some of my forecast amounts downward from yesterday, but the winds upward: ORD: 20-26" (1.3-1.4 liquid equiv) 40% chance of record breaking event, 75% chance of 2nd place MAX Wind Gust 57KT MAX Sustained Wind 37KT At least 5 hourly reports with wind gusts at or in excess of 45KT RFD: 14-19" (0.9-1.0" liquid equiv) 40% chance of record breaking event, 70% chance of 2nd place MAX Wind Gust 52KT MAX Sustained Wind 32KT At least 4 hourly reports with wind gusts at, near or in excess of 45KT PIA: 21-27" (1.5-1.7" liquid equiv) MAX Wind Gust 58KT Max Sustained Wind 39KT At least 6 hourly reports with wind gusts at, near, or in excess of 45KT Expecting some tree damage with some of these gusts. Winds approaching 80KT at the top of the dry adiabatic layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not to be the turd in the punchbowl here, but I do want to remind everyone not to get too enamored with exact totals. The wind is going to make exact measurements extremely difficult. So even if you get 20" of snow, much of it may blow into the next state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Your suprised? FWIW The people who wrote the AFD are always super conservative so I wouldn't worry about it....I just loaded the 18z NAM bufkit and using a 15:1 ratio would still put out 13 inches at DTX and 15 at metro. I am surprised they did not go with the blizzard watch but I guess the 61KT winds were not enough with the depth of the stronger winds being shallow compared to the rest of the winds in the profile. Maybe OceanWX can elaborate more why not to go with a blizzard watch with the wind profile but I am gussing the depth of the winds over 50 is not great enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Getting Mod to Heavy Snow right now... Great appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Blizzard Warning for MKE, Kenosha, Racine, Sheboygan, Janesville, Walworth, Rock Washington, and Ozaukee counties. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY. * TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AND SYSTEM SNOWS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTINUES TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER LOW ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STORM TOTALS APPROACHING 2 FEET IN SOME AREAS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN OPEN AREAS AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. * IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WORST CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN NEAR ZERO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND DRIFTS OF 5 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. TRAVEL TO BECOME DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING BLIZZARD WITH LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS. 40-60 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hate to be all IMBY (@ home..), but for archive purposes... JASPER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RENSSELAER 340 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY... TONIGHT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS 15 TO 19. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. TUESDAY SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. BLUSTERY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT WINDY. PERIODS OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 11 TO 15 INCHES. LOWS 16 TO 20. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS 3 TO 7 BELOW. THEN TEMPERATURES BECOMING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FWIW The people who wrote the AFD are always super conservative so I wouldn't worry about it....I just loaded the 18z NAM bufkit and using a 15:1 ratio would still put out 13 inches at DTX and 15 at metro. I am surprised they did not go with the blizzard watch but I guess the 61KT winds were not enough with the depth of the stronger winds being shallow compared to the rest of the winds in the profile. Maybe OceanWX can elaborate more why not to go with a blizzard watch with the wind profile but I am gussing the depth of the winds over 50 is not great enough. I don't know their thinking, but my guess is a confidence factor there. The strongest winds from your bufkit soundings are right at to slightly above the inversion layer. So they must be feeling the mix down potential is not quite there for sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GRR is being really all out whacky on this one. That combined with the NWS website errors is making for a dearth of info from GRR on this storm. They have been posting forecasted accums in the 7 day point forecast, then taking them down, then putting them back up. WOODTV's mets are only calling for about 10, so interesting to see what happens here. What I don't get is how the numbers across the lake are much higher than they are progged here. I understand that Michigan isn't supposed to get as much QPF, but I recall seeing that in most recent model runs Grand Rapids got over 1 inch of QPF, so save for bad ratios shouldn't that translate into a foot of snow? I am still beyond mad I am not able to come home for this one...I remember 1999. Epic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I give lsd a 99% chance of closing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 340 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 ILZ014-011530- COOK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO 340 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY... ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... TONIGHT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 17 TO 21. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. TUESDAY...WINDY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT VERY WINDY. PERIODS OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 11 TO 16 INCHES. LOWS 15 TO 19. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY VERY WINDY. CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AT TIMES IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wife just texted me.. Sleet & Freezing Rain in Lebanon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 sn/sn+ here right now. Ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Andy= Where did u get that map and do you believe it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2.5 here, but near 5 inches in Dorchester, IA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS did come in a tad bit to the NW it looks like. I don't know and I am glad I am not forecasting this. There is gonna be a tight graident somewhere, and who knows where it sets up at this point. I guess I could see where they get 4-7 for tuesday night, and with 40-60 mph gusts, that could be bad. Only thing I don't understand is the 4-7 for tonight/tommorow. It's hardly snowing right now, and radar returns don't look all that great to the west of here. Unless they think le will kick in later and might make its way overhere? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 sn/sn+ here right now. Ripping. Say hello to Top 10 Lafayette 10 shots for the celebration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS looks VERY nice.. The northern fringe people are gonna like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Andy= Where did u get that map and do you believe it? Got it from the current MKX weather headline and I'm not sure what to believe! Despite downward trends in the model qpf amounts, they are sticking to their guns. At this point, I have to trust that they are keying in on something I'm not seeing! All that said, I would be cool with 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LaCrosse A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DRIVING EAST TOWARD TX THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...AND OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM TODAY/TONIGHT...THIS STORM HAS STRONG DYNAMICS WITH APPRECIABLE QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS...SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...ENHANCED LIFT FROM A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET...AND AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI HAVE A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER //14 KFT// IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF -12 TO -18C. AGAIN...VERY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG...AND AGGREGATION OF DENDRITES AREN/T LIKELY AS A RESULT. THAT SAID...RATIO OF 15/20 TO 1 LOOK REASONABLE IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE SNOW BANDS. SO...ITS GOING TO SNOW...AND SNOW A LOT...BUT BACK TO THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR NORTH.[/quote} I may get some action out of this storm if the EC is right, although i'll be right on the N edge it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 4"/hr? Wow. KC and Tulsa also mentioned 2-4"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't know their thinking, but my guess is a confidence factor there. The strongest winds from your bufkit soundings are right at to slightly above the inversion layer. So they must be feeling the mix down potential is not quite there for sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph. Ahhh gotcha....so basically you are looking for the max core of winds to be located below the inversion (I though being co-located would be sufficient although below would be better). On the 00z runs I had 50+KT at 925mb located below the inversion so if you were to see something like that then the Blizzard Watch would be considered more correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS looks VERY nice.. The northern fringe people are gonna like it. Much softer gradient. Excellent defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Say hello to Top 10 Lafayette 10 shots for the celebration? Easy, long ways to go. Parachutes right now, sleet can't be far away. But a very nice start to this whole ordeal. And I went to the liquor store and stocked up on beer. Can't run out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 sn/sn+ here right now. Ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DTX and GRR holding back on this one is a bit confusing, and their reasoning for lowering the totals I don't agree with but it's their call on it. That being said the 18z runs nudged back up on the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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