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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 7


Powerball

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The record snowfall for Ottumwa, IA is 15.0" on 2/13/78 . Not sure if thats the daily or a given storm. That could be broken with a little NW jog. However a 18 to1 ratio may just give us a RECORD!

15" is 24 hour total, 16" is storm total from what I saw. My response to you was a few posts back, probably got lost in the shuffle of BZ.Ws. :thumbsup:

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Adjusting some of my forecast amounts downward from yesterday, but the winds upward:

ORD: 20-26" (1.3-1.4 liquid equiv) 40% chance of record breaking event, 75% chance of 2nd place

MAX Wind Gust 57KT

MAX Sustained Wind 37KT

At least 5 hourly reports with wind gusts at or in excess of 45KT

RFD: 14-19" (0.9-1.0" liquid equiv) 40% chance of record breaking event, 70% chance of 2nd place

MAX Wind Gust 52KT

MAX Sustained Wind 32KT

At least 4 hourly reports with wind gusts at, near or in excess of 45KT

PIA: 21-27" (1.5-1.7" liquid equiv)

MAX Wind Gust 58KT

Max Sustained Wind 39KT

At least 6 hourly reports with wind gusts at, near, or in excess of 45KT

Expecting some tree damage with some of these gusts. Winds approaching 80KT at the top of the dry adiabatic layer.

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Your suprised? :popcorn:

FWIW The people who wrote the AFD are always super conservative so I wouldn't worry about it....I just loaded the 18z NAM bufkit and using a 15:1 ratio would still put out 13 inches at DTX and 15 at metro. I am surprised they did not go with the blizzard watch but I guess the 61KT winds were not enough with the depth of the stronger winds being shallow compared to the rest of the winds in the profile. Maybe OceanWX can elaborate more why not to go with a blizzard watch with the wind profile but I am gussing the depth of the winds over 50 is not great enough.

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Blizzard Warning for MKE, Kenosha, Racine, Sheboygan, Janesville, Walworth, Rock Washington, and Ozaukee counties.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST

TUESDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM

CST WEDNESDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL

3 PM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AND SYSTEM SNOWS CONTINUE INTO

TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTINUES TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER

STRONGER LOW ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TONIGHT INTO

TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY

WITH STORM TOTALS APPROACHING 2 FEET IN SOME AREAS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY

SHIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH HIGHEST

WINDS IN OPEN AREAS AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

* IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES DUE

TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS TRAVEL

CONDITIONS. WORST CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN

NEAR ZERO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND DRIFTS OF 5 TO 10 FEET

POSSIBLE. TRAVEL TO BECOME DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. POTENTIAL

FOR PARALYZING BLIZZARD WITH LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.

40-60 mph gusts.

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Hate to be all IMBY (@ home..), but for archive purposes...

JASPER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RENSSELAER

340 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST

WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT

SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS 15 TO

19. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY

SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. BLUSTERY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT

WINDY. PERIODS OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER

MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 11 TO 15 INCHES. LOWS 16 TO 20. NORTHEAST WINDS

20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY

AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER

MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW. SEVERAL

INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BLUSTERY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE MORNING

DECREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

80 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PARTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS 3 TO 7 BELOW. THEN TEMPERATURES

BECOMING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS

5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO

15 MPH.

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FWIW The people who wrote the AFD are always super conservative so I wouldn't worry about it....I just loaded the 18z NAM bufkit and using a 15:1 ratio would still put out 13 inches at DTX and 15 at metro. I am surprised they did not go with the blizzard watch but I guess the 61KT winds were not enough with the depth of the stronger winds being shallow compared to the rest of the winds in the profile. Maybe OceanWX can elaborate more why not to go with a blizzard watch with the wind profile but I am gussing the depth of the winds over 50 is not great enough.

I don't know their thinking, but my guess is a confidence factor there. The strongest winds from your bufkit soundings are right at to slightly above the inversion layer. So they must be feeling the mix down potential is not quite there for sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph.

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GRR is being really all out whacky on this one. That combined with the NWS website errors is making for a dearth of info from GRR on this storm. They have been posting forecasted accums in the 7 day point forecast, then taking them down, then putting them back up. WOODTV's mets are only calling for about 10, so interesting to see what happens here. What I don't get is how the numbers across the lake are much higher than they are progged here. I understand that Michigan isn't supposed to get as much QPF, but I recall seeing that in most recent model runs Grand Rapids got over 1 inch of QPF, so save for bad ratios shouldn't that translate into a foot of snow?

I am still beyond mad I am not able to come home for this one...I remember 1999. Epic stuff.

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ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

340 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

ILZ014-011530-

COOK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO

340 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST

WEDNESDAY...

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

TONIGHT

SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 17 TO

21. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

90 PERCENT.

TUESDAY...WINDY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING

THEN

SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT

VERY WINDY. PERIODS OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE

OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY ONE

QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 11 TO 16 INCHES. LOWS 15 TO 19. NORTHEAST WINDS

30 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO

55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY

VERY WINDY. CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH

VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE MORNING.

PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN

THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN

THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AT

TIMES IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO

40 MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

90 PERCENT.

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GFS did come in a tad bit to the NW it looks like. I don't know and I am glad I am not forecasting this. There is gonna be a tight graident somewhere, and who knows where it sets up at this point.

I guess I could see where they get 4-7 for tuesday night, and with 40-60 mph gusts, that could be bad. Only thing I don't understand is the 4-7 for tonight/tommorow. It's hardly snowing right now, and radar returns don't look all that great to the west of here.

Unless they think le will kick in later and might make its way overhere? Who knows.

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Andy=

Where did u get that map and do you believe it? :)

Got it from the current MKX weather headline and I'm not sure what to believe! Despite downward trends in the model qpf amounts, they are sticking to their guns. At this point, I have to trust that they are keying in on something I'm not seeing! :)

All that said, I would be cool with 8-10"

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LaCrosse

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DRIVING EAST TOWARD TX

THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY...AND THIS FEATURE

WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...AND OVER

THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED. UNLIKE THE SYSTEM

TODAY/TONIGHT...THIS STORM HAS STRONG DYNAMICS WITH APPRECIABLE QG

CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS...SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC

FORCING...ENHANCED LIFT FROM A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET...AND AMPLE

THERMODYNAMICS IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT

SOUNDINGS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI HAVE A DEEP

ISOTHERMAL LAYER //14 KFT// IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF -12 TO

-18C. AGAIN...VERY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. AS MENTIONED IN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WINDS WILL BE STRONG...AND AGGREGATION OF

DENDRITES AREN/T LIKELY AS A RESULT. THAT SAID...RATIO OF 15/20 TO 1

LOOK REASONABLE IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE SNOW BANDS. SO...ITS

GOING TO SNOW...AND SNOW A LOT...BUT BACK TO THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR

NORTH.[/quote}

I may get some action out of this storm if the EC is right, although i'll be right on the N edge it would seem.

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I don't know their thinking, but my guess is a confidence factor there. The strongest winds from your bufkit soundings are right at to slightly above the inversion layer. So they must be feeling the mix down potential is not quite there for sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph.

Ahhh gotcha....so basically you are looking for the max core of winds to be located below the inversion (I though being co-located would be sufficient although below would be better). On the 00z runs I had 50+KT at 925mb located below the inversion so if you were to see something like that then the Blizzard Watch would be considered more correct?

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