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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 7


Powerball

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

320 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...DANGEROUS MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER

STORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-

010530-

/O.UPG.KLOT.BZ.A.0001.110201T1800Z-110203T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KLOT.BZ.W.0001.110201T2100Z-110202T2100Z/

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-

LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...

WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...

WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...

FOWLER

320 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 /420 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011/

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ TUESDAY TO

3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ TUESDAY TO

3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WARNING REPLACES THE

BLIZZARD WATCH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BECOME HEAVY AT

TIMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY

SPREADING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

SNOW...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY

NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL

CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY

MORNING...SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL RESULT

IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND

CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE

EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES

REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

* HAZARDS...WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TUESDAY

NIGHT AS VERY HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS RESULT IN BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR

ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDER SNOW MAY BE PRESENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO

NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAVEL LIKELY

BECOMING VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL SO HEAVILY AT

TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THAT PLOWS MAY BE UNABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE

SNOW...WITH MANY SIDE STREETS AND UNTREATED ROADS BECOMING

IMPASSABLE.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

OKZ054>064-011100-
/O.CAN.KTSA.WS.W.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.BZ.W.0001.110201T0000Z-110202T0600Z/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-
DELAWARE-CREEK-
315 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...
  PAWNEE...OTTAWA...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG AND NOWATA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
  LATE THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE EARLY
  MORNING HOURS. HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF
  35 TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE INTO THE
  AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL LESSEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
  DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

* 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 18
  INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
  INTERSTATE 44. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO ONE INCH OF SLEET IS ALSO
  POSSIBLE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SNOW DRIFTS OF 2 TO 4
  FEET.

* WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE DAY
  TUESDAY...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
  VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES PRODUCING WHITEOUT
  CONDITIONS. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
  TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE EVEN ON TREATED SURFACES.
  THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH NORTHEAST
  OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

* ANY LOSS OF POWER WILL RESULT IN A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS...AS
  TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND RESCUE EFFORTS ARE
  HAMPERED BY THE ROAD CONDITIONS.

DEFINITION...
* A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS HEAVY SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND
  EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* EXPECT HOME-BOUND CONDITIONS. TRAVEL TO BECOME NEAR IMPOSSIBLE...WITH
  WHITEOUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

* ANY PRE-STORM PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD HAVE BEEN
  COMPLETED...INCLUDING ENSURING ADEQUATE FOOD AND MEDICAL
  SUPPLIES.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
  TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
  EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
  WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$

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Blizzard Warning from Romeoville.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

320 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...DANGEROUS MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER

STORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-

010530-

/O.UPG.KLOT.BZ.A.0001.110201T1800Z-110203T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KLOT.BZ.W.0001.110201T2100Z-110202T2100Z/

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-

LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...

WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...

WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...

FOWLER

320 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 /420 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011/

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ TUESDAY TO

3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ TUESDAY TO

3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WARNING REPLACES THE

BLIZZARD WATCH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BECOME HEAVY AT

TIMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY

SPREADING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

SNOW...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY

NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL

CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY

MORNING...SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL RESULT

IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND

CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE

EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES

REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

* HAZARDS...WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TUESDAY

NIGHT AS VERY HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS RESULT IN BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR

ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDER SNOW MAY BE PRESENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO

NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAVEL LIKELY

BECOMING VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL SO HEAVILY AT

TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THAT PLOWS MAY BE UNABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE

SNOW...WITH MANY SIDE STREETS AND UNTREATED ROADS BECOMING

IMPASSABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

SHEA

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I drive maybe once a week, but have pretty much accepted my car will be burried until March.

Parking at Purdue has gotten extremely bad. There's not enough room for the cars, and the cops hand out tickets like candy to trick-or-treaters. However, I bet a lot of people will just risk that the police won't be doing much in the coming days. Good luck, though, ever trying to move the vehicles.

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Interesting. I can't remember the last time we had more than a 12" of snow, so this could be some real fun. If we do get that kind of snow I doubt the streets will be clear before friday at the earliest.

After the 12/1/06 storm we had about 14" in the front yard (East Peoria), but no real action since then.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

320 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...DANGEROUS MULTIFACETED AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER

STORM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-

010530-

/O.UPG.KLOT.BZ.A.0001.110201T1800Z-110203T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KLOT.BZ.W.0001.110201T2100Z-110202T2100Z/

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-

LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...

WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...

WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...

FOWLER

320 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011 /420 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011/

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ TUESDAY TO

3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ TUESDAY TO

3 PM CST /4 PM EST/ WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WARNING REPLACES THE

BLIZZARD WATCH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BECOME HEAVY AT

TIMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY

SPREADING NORTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

SNOW...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY

NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL

CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY

MORNING...SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL RESULT

IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND

CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE

EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES

REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

* HAZARDS...WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TUESDAY

NIGHT AS VERY HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS RESULT IN BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR

ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDER SNOW MAY BE PRESENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO

NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAVEL LIKELY

BECOMING VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL SO HEAVILY AT

TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THAT PLOWS MAY BE UNABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE

SNOW...WITH MANY SIDE STREETS AND UNTREATED ROADS BECOMING

IMPASSABLE.

:snowman:

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Ocean, what are you thinking for up here? I personally think MKE is on crack.

Tuesday Night...Windy...snow. Blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches. Total snow accumulation 11 to 16 inches. Lows around 12. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

11-16 inches is a bit high for both events. We were supposed to have 3 inches on the ground already, and I have a half inch up here.

Do you agree with them on the 4-7 or 5-8 for the 2nd event? Just wondering what you think, thanks man.

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JoMo, this is the first Blizzard Warning I have seen out of SGF. Do people down there understand what it means?

I just talked to my mom, shes lived in Laclede/Dallas county since 79, first one she remembers too.

yeah this is the first one I remember, and judging by the chaos at Wal-Mart Supercenter.. It's like mass panic.....

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Now MKE just issued a blizzard watch for the FDL, Dodge, Madison areas.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN

EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO

TUESDAY. STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY

WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN FOND DU LAC AND DODGE

COUNTIES AND 8 TO 12 INCHES IN DANE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES LATER

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY

SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE

EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

IMPACTS...VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE WITH SLIPPERY ROADS INTO

TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES

DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT DRIFTS.

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I don't remember that much snow, but yeah I was at Bradley that year and the bad part was that we had freezing rain & slush before hand, then a good deal of snow on top. I remember the roads being terrible because there were "potholes" in the frozen layer underneath. It was aweful.

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Well AFD is out so I can tell you all now that DVN has a blizzard warning for the entire area (starts earlier in the south 1/3).

The record snowfall for Ottumwa, IA is 15.0" on 2/13/78 . Not sure if thats the daily or a given storm. That could be broken with a little NW jog. However a 18 to1 ratio may just give us a RECORD!

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:thumbsup::snowman:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

329 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

DISCUSSION

328 PM CST

IR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT

LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE OZARKS. A WEAK VORT MAX

CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTN HAVE SHOWN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE

PRECIP SHIELD STEADILY PUSHING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL

ILLINOIS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA.

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE ELEVATED VORT MAX

THIS EVE WILL PASS FROM WEST CENTRAL IL TO NORTHWEST IN. WENT WITH A

BLEND OF THE NAM/LCL WRF/GFS SOLUTIONS TONIGHT. QPF TOTALS WILL

REMAIN LGT WITH EXPECTED TOTALS THRU DAYBREAK TUE ARND 0.1 TO 0.2

INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW DGZ...EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE

BTWN 13:1 TO 15:1. SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT SHUD BE ARND 1-3 INCHES

WITH LOCAL AREAS UP TO 4 INCHES. TIMING APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY

EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SO HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING UP OF THE

FIRST WAVE OF SNOW TO LATE THIS AFTN THRU EARLY TUE MORNING.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHUD COOL TO THE UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S.

TOMORROW...

MAJOR WINTER STORM AND STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP

ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. SREF 850MB U-WIND ANOMALIES HAVE CONTINUED TO

SHOW GROWTH IN THE 4 TO 5 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL OR PEGGED AT 50-60KTS

OR IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LLVL JET. IT DOESN/T APPEAR THIS WILL

ARRIVE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL AFT NOON TUE. UNTIL THIS POINT IT APPEARS

A LULL BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES WILL OCCUR FROM 12Z TUE TO 18Z. SNOW

SHUD THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SFC ISALLOBARIC

PRESSURE GRADIENT STEADILY RAMPS UP THROUGHOUT THE AFTN HRS...WITH A

EASTERLY FLOW TURNING NORTHEASTERLY. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG

ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL

INFLUENCE AREAS EAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY

ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY THAT WE WILL SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL

ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS TUE AFTN.

MIXED LYR SHUD EASILY TOUCH THE 50-60KT JET AT 850MB...BRINGING TO

THE SFC SUSTAINED WINDS BY 18Z TUE BTWN 25-35MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO

40MPH BY TUE AFTN. PWAT VALUES STEADILY INCREASE AND APPROACH 1 TO

1.5 INCHES FROM 21Z-09Z WED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LARGE LAYER OF

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF NEARLY 10KFT...SUBSTANTIAL OMEGA OR LIFT

INTO THIS LYR...200-500J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...COULD EASILY

TRANSLATE INTO SNOWFALL RATES BTWN 2-3IN/HR. FOR A PERIOD OF TIME IF

WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE WHICH

COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES TO 4IN/HR. THE PEAK OF THE

STORM TUE NGT/EARLY WED CONTINUES TO BE BTWN 03-12Z WED. TOTAL QPF

FROM NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS HAS BLENDED WELL WITH ARND 1.2 TO 1.6

INCHES...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF.

THE CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE SFC

LOW...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CORRECTION. THIS IS COMMON

WITH THE INTERATION BETWEEN GROUND THAT IS COOLER OR SNOW COVERED

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. NONETHELESS IT STILL APPEARS THE HIGHEST

PROBABLE TRACK WILL BE NEAR EVANSVILLE TO DAYTON OHIO. HOWEVER AGAIN

MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CORRECTION WITH FUTURE SOLUTIONS

UNTIL WE NEAR TUE AFTN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 20S...WHICH

IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EARLIER THINKING. COULD EASILY SEE

TEMPERATURES FROM BENTON COUNTY WEST TO LASALLE COUNTY PUSH INTO THE

UPR 20S...AS WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO CENTRAL

IL/IN. AT THIS POINT CONTINUE TO THINK THAT WE WILL SEE MAINLY ALL

SNOW AS THE TRACK FROM CURRENT SOLUTIONS HAS CORRECTED FURTHER

SOUTH.

SNOWFALL TOTALS:

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD EASILY PUSH BEYOND 1

FOOT TO IN SOME LOCATIONS UPWARDS OF 2 FEET...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO

LAKE MICHIGAN. THE CHALLENGE REMAINS AS TO THE PRECISE LOCATION OF

WHERE THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SETUP...HOWEVER FEEL THAT BEFORE

THIS ZONE PIVOTS EAST AND BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER

THE LAKE...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM COOK COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO

LASALLE/LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE

BETWEEN 12:1 AT THE ONSET TO 10:1...AS THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR

ENTRAINS. THEN RATIOS WILL START TO INCREASE AND APPROACH 15:1 BY

09Z WED...AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST AWAY AND DRY AIR

ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST

ILLINOIS THEN NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO MUCH OF WED. HEIGHTS WILL

STEADILY INCREASE AND PROVIDE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...SHRINKING THE

DGZ. SO AS OF THIS FORECAST PKG HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS JUST A

BIT...AND EXPECT MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 22 INCHES...AGAIN WITH THE

HIGHEST TOTALS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS:

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS...AND MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH

RESPECT TO THE WIND FORECAST...HAVE UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 21Z TUE TO 21Z WED. AT THE ONSET WE MAY NOT

HAVE GUSTS TO 35MPH...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE VERY CLOSE. SNOW WILL

START FALLING TUE AFTN AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTN

HOURS. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT TUE

AFTN...WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE

NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GUSTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD BE UP TO 50

MPH FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES MIDDAY WED FROM WEST TO EAST...AND WILL BRING AN

END OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WED STRUGGLE TO WARM

OUT OF THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL EASILY FALL TO

THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WED DURING THE DAY AND ONLY BECOME

COLDER WED NGT.

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Ocean, what are you thinking for up here? I personally think MKE is on crack.

Tuesday Night...Windy...snow. Blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches. Total snow accumulation 11 to 16 inches. Lows around 12. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

11-16 inches is a bit high for both events. We were supposed to have 3 inches on the ground already, and I have a half inch up here.

Do you agree with them on the 4-7 or 5-8 for the 2nd event? Just wondering what you think, thanks man.

I think those numbers are reasonable for the second event, very much in line with our northeast zones.

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I'm surprised DVN included Cedar Rapids in a blizzard warning. I was thinking more along and southeast of the QC.

The thing is the winds, even in the worst case we may not verify a winter storm warning up your way, we may still see blizzard conditions with a couple inches of snow.

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