BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM just drops a bomb on valpo @ 39 and 42.. far southern MI getting slammed then.. NAM even worse than the 8" it gave me at 12z for both parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z nam drops 2 feet on the stl metro only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM just drops a bomb on valpo @ 39 and 42.. far southern MI getting slammed then.. NAM even worse than the 8" it gave me at 12z for both parts. I'd take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I here conflicting things all the time on using the 18z and 6z runs for guidance. Aren't they considered more reliable within 24hrs of a storm? I know the data is conceptual, but at times like this can they pump real data in? the NAM has been terrible for this event honestly it should be used at all lol.....although this is the first run in a while which looks possibily realistic and in line with the other models wrt to height fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM just drops a bomb on valpo @ 39 and 42.. far southern MI getting slammed then.. NAM even worse than the 8" it gave me at 12z for both parts. It is still dealing with some issues I think... Go with a blend of GFS, SREF, and Euro as csnavy said before: "Right now, a blend of the GFS and ECMWF QPF seems a good bet, with a bit of SREF thrown in, which suggests amounts around 1.1-1.2 for DVN and 1.4 for ORD (west to east)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM just drops a bomb on valpo @ 39 and 42.. far southern MI getting slammed then.. NAM even worse than the 8" it gave me at 12z for both parts. Hopefully it's out to lunch from my area north to you, but i find it odd that a model that typicall loves to be cranked and wet is so stingy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Winds gusting into the 20's enough to blow over a garbage can outside. It was lightly filled with recyclables but still a sign of things to come Appropriate movie for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hopefully it's out to lunch from my area north to you, but i find it odd that a model that typicall loves to be cranked and wet is so stingy. You still get hit hard for being a throw it out model as I'm hearing. def worrisome up here for a worry wart like me. I have zero faith in waa 4-7" MKE is saying here... already screwed today in the southern half of MKE.. granted I only lost maybe 3/4-1" but again another just miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 family member report of +SN in Champaign, get ready LAF Yes, it starts soon. Also on WGN/Skilling's wx blog, Tom dropping throwing some serious :weenie: via Twitter. Can be found on the right hand side here: http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hopefully it's out to lunch from my area north to you, but i find it odd that a model that typicall loves to be cranked and wet is so stingy. at the same time you have the GFS which normally doesnt crank it out, doing that. ive found that the GFS signal usually wins. ride the GFS/euro dude. if the GFS/euro were vastly different, thatd be a different story..... mets have already said the NAM is struggling, itll figure it out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes, it starts soon. Also on WGN/Skilling's wx blog, Tom dropping throwing some serious :weenie: via Twitter. Can be found on the right hand side here: http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/ Looks like should be a fun drive from work this afternoon at 5pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Running a wider domain now including N IL... 20 min away Unfortunately there is a bug with the WRF-EMS, and I can only view the first frame with it in GEMPAK. The bug fix was supposed to come out in late January, so hopefully really soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The other models had better be right because in a couple more runs the NAM will no longer have any snow nw of the Quad Cities. Its issues with developing the storm itself aside, each NAM run is showing a little bit more push from the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like should be a fun drive from work this afternoon at 5pm.. Could be. +1 for me for having the day off. But I still have to make that beer run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Decent radar returns here in Sheboygan but nothing hitting the ground yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 With the drifting many folks are going to wake up and look outside and say how the F are we going to clear out the driveway... Drifts are going to be at least 6' down there in the yard or driveway where its prone to drifting on a ne wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Decent radar returns here in Sheboygan but nothing hitting the ground yet... I had that too when the only good stuff was briefly over me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 With the drifting many folks are going to wake up and look outside and say how the F are we going to clear out the driveway... Drifts are going to be at least 6' down there in the yard or driveway where its prone to drifting on a ne wind. There is a little U-shaped side door that faces NE on my building. I’ve seen 2-3 ft drifts there after 4-5” snows. If the highest of the high end amounts verify (GFS/Euro), the door will be completely snowed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The NAM and really a lot of the models dig the H5 vort and trough really far south before ejecting it. I am assuming this lets the northern wave move south some and the phase happens a bit further south....and this probably allows colder air to push south when the storms deepens. you can see temps crash on all models. the euro is now way colder for us then it was. little shifts make all the difference in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The other models had better be right because in a couple more runs the NAM will no longer have any snow nw of the Quad Cities. Its issues with developing the storm itself aside, each NAM run is showing a little bit more push from the northern stream. Gonna be a serious bust by the weenies at the Milwaukee office if the NAM pulls a coupe. I'm not throwing the NAM. Even the Euro is very slowly doing that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I had that too when the only good stuff was briefly over me.. wtf, let's get this sh*t to the ground! heh... Good luck down there Bow though I think you are going to be fine. I will be happy with 8-10" up here before it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 25/14 with a stiff ENE wind at LAF right now. Going to be interesting to see what happens here when the returns hit relatively soon. CMI has flipped to sleet BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't ever recall being under a Blizzard Warning here in Joplin......... until now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Gonna be a serious bust by the weenies at the Milwaukee office if the NAM pulls a coupe. I'm not throwing the NAM. Even the Euro is very slowly doing that also. It’s a hard call for them. Either way there’s going to be a sharp gradient on the north side so bust potential will be high either way wherever it ends up. Since the superior models looks good, they're going the right thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wtf, let's get this sh*t to the ground! heh... Good luck down there Bow though I think you are going to be fine. I will be happy with 8-10" up here before it's all said and done. are you looking at composite or base? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 There is a little U-shaped side door that faces NE on my building. I’ve seen 2-3 ft drifts there after 4-5” snows. If the highest of the high end amounts verify (GFS/Euro), the door will be completely snowed in. Yeah its going to blow some peoples mind away for sure. I remember 3 or 4 yrs back.. I think it was the 07/08 winter and all we got was like maybe 2 inches and then an arctic front went through and winds were gusting like 25-35 and it totally closed up the driveway like it snowed 28-30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 skilling: Winds Tue nite/Wed 30-35/gusts 40-50 mph. 80 fcsts off 7 models 1.17" H20 equiv precip-15:1 snow/water ratio wud make 17-18" plus lake snow.... sounds like were okay even with a blend of lowest model qpf to highest.... would not want to be forecasting the fringe as you say... what was QPF on latest NAM for ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 skilling: Winds Tue nite/Wed 30-35/gusts 40-50 mph. 80 fcsts off 7 models 1.17" H20 equiv precip-15:1 snow/water ratio wud make 17-18" plus lake snow.... sounds like were okay even with a blend of lowest model qpf to highest.... would not want to be forecasting the fringe as you say... what was QPF on latest NAM for ORD? eyeballing, 1.1" maybe 1.3" at MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 eyeballing, 1.1" maybe 1.3" at MDW. just shows how greedy we all are....if it looks like 15 inches I still prefer the 22" in Northwest Indiana...when last week at this time I would have killed for 8 inches. It's a sickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stryker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What do you guys think about the peoria area? Some of the stormchasers around here are saying we have a good chance at 20" of snow, at least 12-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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