BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Lates HPC qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 someone will get 6 to 8 inches of sleet. I remember "The Valentine's Day Storm" that hit the east coast when I lived in PA back in 2006 (I believe)...In Lancaster, PA we had 8 inches of sleet. It was INSANE. It was very, very heavy to shovel and it froze solid in place. Now that was a glacier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like Indy is locked in for the ice storm. Got my camera charged to take pictures of the trees in the nearby forest. Guess we'll order some pizza tonight to have something good to eat before the power goes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Holy Sh*t URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 138 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ..POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...NORTH AND NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF KOKOMO AND LAFAYETTE LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER SNOWFALL MAY BE HEAVY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TERRE HAUTE... INDIANAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...NEW CASTLE AND MUNCIE...WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AND PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE INCH OR MORE. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL INDIANA MAY RECEIVE LARGE ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONG WINDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY PEOPLE IN CENTRAL INDIANA. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. STAY ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM. INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-010245- /O.UPG.KIND.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KIND.WS.W.0001.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/ CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY- BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE- PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN- JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW- DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO... CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE... SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD... SEYMOUR 138 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW OR ICING...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR POTENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD...LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGES. * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. * TIMING: PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SPC meso page working nice a quick awesome 850 frontogenisis along the tightening baroclinic zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/NE MO AND CNTRL IL CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 311752Z - 312145Z WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/EXPAND ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM INTO CNTRL MO. WITH THE SFC WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EWD. A ZONE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DRIVEN BY SWLY FLOW ATOP A COLD AIR MASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS E-CNTRL/NE MO AND CNTRL IL THROUGH MID/LATE-AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 25-30 KT 850-MB JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR TO DRIVE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND STL...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. IN THIS REGION...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLETELY MELT AS IT FALLS THROUGH 850-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES MAINTAINED AOB 0C. FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES PER 3 HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN IN ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...GIVEN 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WARM NOSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER /AOB 3C/ THAN THOSE FURTHER SOUTH...PREVENTING COMPLETE MELTING OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THIS REGION...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ANTICIPATED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On the iciing front to the south, i keep forgetting how bad the winds will be with this low compared to some of the other prolonged overrunning events of years past. yes me too ive had a lot of ice in my lifetime, including ridiculous totals.....but with those kinds of winds further south where there are more trees,......ugly indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MSP: 0.17" OMA: 0.57" DSM: 1.11" MKC: 1.58" ICT: 0.62" JLN: 1.51" TUL: 1.54" OKC: 1.22" STL: 1.40" PAH: 1.01" SPI: 1.64" PIA: 1.61" DVN: 1.44" CID: 1.25" DBQ: 1.09" MSN: 0.91" MKE: 1.23" FLD: 0.54" SBM: 0.59" ORD: 1.52" LAF: 1.33" IND: 1.44" FWA: 1.57" DAY: 1.27" CMH: 1.24" GRR: 1.12" DTW: 1.18" CLE: 1.23" YYZ: 1.07" Back in business baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Back in business baby. model trends were very nice at 12z NAM out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Will the MKX Office go with a blizzard warning on the lakeshore? I would expect close to a foot of snow with 30 to 35 mph sustained winds, so that should just meet blizzard criteria, especially near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Serious boy who cried wolf attitude in the city today. You noticed that too, eh? Local high school is planning on being open on Wednesday. (They haven't had a snow day in 40+ years, and it's a matter of pride) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Will the MKX Office go with a blizzard warning on the lakeshore? I would expect close to a foot of snow with 30 to 35 mph sustained winds, so that should just meet blizzard criteria, especially near the lake. No doubt.. Probably will come out this afternoon or later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No doubt.. Probably will come out this afternoon or later tonight. wouldn't be shocked if they add their 3 southeast lakeside counties. It's a pretty bullish office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dying to see the first blizzard warnings posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Will the MKX Office go with a blizzard warning on the lakeshore? I would expect close to a foot of snow with 30 to 35 mph sustained winds, so that should just meet blizzard criteria, especially near the lake. Similar attitudes here with most people saying that they have lived through ice and snow before. Oh well, they will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 so does the 18z NAM continue with slight corrections or throw a major curveball sending us weenies into a frenzie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dying to see the first blizzard warnings posted Well there ya go, Blizzard warnings posted for a lot of Central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wouldn't be shocked if they add their 3 southeast lakeside counties. It's a pretty bullish office. They were definitely bullish on the last blizzard warning. We got only a couple of inches of snow after the changeover in the December storm, so that call was blown. Here, however, we won't at least have to worried about mixed precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I could go for some melon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Environment Canada has issued a winter storm watch for parts of southern Ontario, including the Toronto area. And notice the bolded part. WOW! City of Toronto 10:47 AM EST Monday 31 January 2011 Winter storm watch for City of Toronto issued ..Major winter snowstorm Tuesday night and Wednesday.. This is an alert to the potential development of dangerous winter weather conditions in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements. A major winter storm is developing over Texas and will track towards Southern Ontario Tuesday. The low is expected to track just south of the lower lakes Wednesday. Light snow will begin in advance of this system tonight and Tuesday. However the heavier snow is forecast to begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday morning. Potential widespread snowfall amounts of 20 to 30 cm are likely before the snow tapers off Wednesday afternoon. In addition strong and gusty east winds will develop with the snow. This will cause local whiteout conditions in blowing snow. The east winds will also generate local snow squalls off Lake Ontario in advance of the main snow area which will give enhanced snow amounts to regions near the west end of Lake Ontario. This will be the first Major winter storm of the season for the Toronto area, and the most significant storm of the season for many regions outside the traditional snow belts. The heavy snowfall and blowing snow will cause whiteout conditions making for extremely hazardous driving conditions. The public should be prepared to change plans accordingly to avoid travel during the storm. This storm has the potential to create near-paralyzing conditions. Environment Canada continues to monitor this dangerous winter storm and will issue further watches and warnings as necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 New zone forecast up for LAF (Tippecanoe County). Zone Forecast: Tippecanoe County Last Update: 234 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 Winter Storm Warning Tonight...Snow or chance of light sleet. Snow and sleet accumulation around 3 inches. Lows around 17. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Tuesday...Windy. Snow or chance of light sleet. Snow and sleet accumulation of 5 to 6 inches. Highs in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Tuesday Night...Windy. Snow or chance of light sleet. Snow may be heavy at times. Snow and sleet accumulation of 9 to 10 inches. Nearly steady temperatures around 20. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wind chill readings 1 below to 9 above zero. Wednesday...Breezy. Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Light snow accumulations. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 IWX passes on Blizzard headlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE 236 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. AFTER A SHORT LULL IN THE SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...THE SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TUESDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET...MUCH LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT SIGNIFICANT ICING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES. ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW... HIGHLY IMPACTING TRAVEL. THESE WINDS WOULD ALSO CAUSE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES TO FALL IF SIGNIFICANT ICING OCCURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Environment Canada has issued a winter storm watch for parts of southern Ontario, including the Toronto area. And notice the bolded part. WOW! City of Toronto 10:47 AM EST Monday 31 January 2011 Winter storm watch for City of Toronto issued ..Major winter snowstorm Tuesday night and Wednesday.. This is an alert to the potential development of dangerous winter weather conditions in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements. A major winter storm is developing over Texas and will track towards Southern Ontario Tuesday. The low is expected to track just south of the lower lakes Wednesday. Light snow will begin in advance of this system tonight and Tuesday. However the heavier snow is forecast to begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday morning. Potential widespread snowfall amounts of 20 to 30 cm are likely before the snow tapers off Wednesday afternoon. In addition strong and gusty east winds will develop with the snow. This will cause local whiteout conditions in blowing snow. The east winds will also generate local snow squalls off Lake Ontario in advance of the main snow area which will give enhanced snow amounts to regions near the west end of Lake Ontario. This will be the first Major winter storm of the season for the Toronto area, and the most significant storm of the season for many regions outside the traditional snow belts. The heavy snowfall and blowing snow will cause whiteout conditions making for extremely hazardous driving conditions. The public should be prepared to change plans accordingly to avoid travel during the storm. This storm has the potential to create near-paralyzing conditions. Environment Canada continues to monitor this dangerous winter storm and will issue further watches and warnings as necessary. very nice indeed! havent seen that since mar 08 for myself, and of course the dec 15/07 megastorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 New zone forecast up for LAF (Tippecanoe County). You're going to get so smoked. Get used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 They were definitely bullish on the last blizzard warning. We got only a couple of inches of snow after the changeover in the December storm, so that call was blown. Here, however, we won't at least have to worried about mixed precipitation. That might have been a bad call given the possibility of too much mixing and likelihood it would be wet snow at that. This is a totally different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 218 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BEHIND THE STORM WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...EXACERBATING THE SITUATION. THE HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... FOCUS IS BEGINNING OF WINTER STORM. MODELS ARE CLOSE AND A BLEND IS USED. INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MAINLY SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS...WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF NEARLY ALL SNOW ACROSS LAFAYETTE...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...AND MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN SOUTH. SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE NOTED IN THE ECHOES CURRENTLY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS. OVERALL...EXPECT A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE BY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAFAYETTE AREA. STUCK NEAR MAVMOS WHICH APPROXIMATES SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURE PROGS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE OF THE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THIS REMAINS THE FOCUS. GFS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT AND ALSO REPRESENTS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE RANGE OF GUIDANCE...AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS. HAVE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY COLDER OVERALL...WHICH REPRESENTS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS TO THE SOUTH...BUT NOT MAJORLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...ONLY TWEAKS MADE TO PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE AREA. ALL INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT AN EXTREMELY STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH PRECIP TYPE REMAINING THE ONLY REAL QUESTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY ALL SNOW NEAR LAF...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTATION IS THAT A LARGE PORTION ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WILL SEE FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT...WITH SLEET MORE LIKELY THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES. STILL EXPECT THAT SOME ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE AIR MAY PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA MAINLY TOMORROW EVENING...AND HELP TO CUT DOWN SLIGHTLY ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS THERE. AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE MOST EVERYWHERE THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That might have been a bad call given the possibility of too much mixing and likelihood it would be wet snow at that. This is a totally different animal. what are your thoughts on tonigh's waa snows......out in front of the main show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That might have been a bad call given the possibility of too much mixing and likelihood it would be wet snow at that. This is a totally different animal. I agree, that would be my rationale with going with a Blizzard Warning for MKE, Racine and Kenosha Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You're going to get so smoked. Get used to it. Only question is smoked with what? Time will tell. I'm gotta make a beer run...getting low on supplies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.