Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I can't quote the post, due to the thread being locked (storm thread #5), but just a reminder about which models verify best with the QPF values. The post is from usedtobe (Wes Junker who used to work at HPC). The question concerning the euro. It's 48 hour forecast of QPF verify better in the midwest than any of the other models except at the highest threshold the gfs wins. The nam overforecasts the really heavy amounts. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_48h_mdw.gif But for the highest thresholds, the gfs wins at 72 hours. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_72h_mdw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Things are changing..the storm is coming in colder then foretasted 2 days ago. By quite a bit.. there will be a huge area of 8+ and possibly a record area of 12+ for the OV, Midwest, and GL from one storm. STL and LAF have both gone from rain maybe? to looking way more like anywhere from 6-15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On the iciing front to the south, i keep forgetting how bad the winds will be with this low compared to some of the other prolonged overrunning events of years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This very well be my first warning level snow event since the 07/08 winter. My call is for 2-4" tonight, nothing much tomorrow, and then another 6-10" Tuesday night, followed by dry slot/drizzle/flurries Wednesday. So, 8-14". I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Holy Sh*t Copied for historical reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE INCH OR MORE. Oh I hate to see those words in a forecast. Holy moley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is this **** really happeneing??? I am waiting to wake up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On the iciing front to the south, i keep forgetting how bad the winds will be with this low compared to some of the other prolonged overrunning events of years past. Yeah, I think that is what is going to push this over the top. An inch of ice with light wind is bad enough. Maybe a once in a generation ice storm for the Indianapolis area. Between all the states affected, power outages are likely to number in the millions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good afternoon everyone, long time reader first time poster. Looks like my area, Schaumburg, is on the northern side of a fairly significant snow gradient. Nothing like hearing every number under the sun for accumulation from 6" to 24" for this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wanted to wish everyone good luck and hope everyone does okay during this storm and stays safe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wanted to wish everyone good luck and hope everyone does okay during this storm and stays safe!! Good luck to you guys as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 really nice looking lake enhanced defo band by daybreak Wednesday on the hi-res NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good afternoon everyone, long time reader first time poster. Looks like my area, Schaumburg, is on the northern side of a fairly significant snow gradient. Nothing like hearing every number under the sun for accumulation from 6" to 24" for this area... split the difference and call it a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Already have some nice snows in Macomb, Il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Going to hopefully only be a long couple of days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good afternoon everyone, long time reader first time poster. Looks like my area, Schaumburg, is on the northern side of a fairly significant snow gradient. Nothing like hearing every number under the sun for accumulation from 6" to 24" for this area... Welcome You can probably up that 6 to at least 12.. A foot is very likely pretty much across the whole area with the better shot at 20+ near the Lake and south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wanted to wish everyone good luck and hope everyone does okay during this storm and stays safe!! Good luck to you. Just curious...what happens at the office if this gets really bad and there's widespread power failure? What are the backup capabilities? Would another office have to take over your responsibilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like a blend of GFS, EC and some SREF for QPF will be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good luck to you. Just curious...what happens at the office if this gets really bad and there's widespread power failure? What are the backup capabilities? Would another office have to take over your responsibilities? We can run on generator for a few days. After that, responsibility would probably shift to Louisville since Northern Indiana will be dealing with problems themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 someone will get 6 to 8 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 someone will get 6 to 8 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 someone will get 6 to 8 inches of sleet. That would be awful.. Sleet is a buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Gonna be a long couple of days here looking at the radar and nowcasting. So close to the gradient edge (20 miles north: 1-3 inches, here 3-6, south: 6-12 etc) and a shift in either direction could be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wanted to wish everyone good luck and hope everyone does okay during this storm and stays safe!! Just wanted to say that the IND staff has done an awesome job with this storm, kudos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 going to suck if the NWS servers stay this log jammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 going to suck if the NWS servers stay this log jammed. That's why I use COD With that said, I guess it's good they are jammed. Word is out, and people know what's happening. Though it will be bad, we can deal with snow. It's the people in the ice zone that I really feel bad for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's why I use COD With that said, I guess it's good they are jammed. Word is out, and people know what's happening. Though it will be bad, we can deal with snow. It's the people in the ice zone that I really feel bad for! Serious boy who cried wolf attitude in the city today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hoosier you have the hot hand right now might wanna start another thread but i'm not sure how much action it'd get with this ongoing storm getting all the attention, OT but euro long range has a second blizzard 168-192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm go to go with higher ratios and say 16-18 inches of snow for me here in northern Elkhart county...a bit higher than Northern IN weather's thinking. This storm really looks amazing and I am really concerned with the amount of ice and winds predicted for central regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the glazing of I-70 in Ill. has begun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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