LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm with you with the WAA. I just wonder to what extent dynamics can offset the relatively small layer of warmth. Regardless, I think it is primarily sn/pl, with any zr being very minimal. Could be one of those scenarios where the heavier pockets of returns will dictate the p-type. All in all for LAF, I'd probably go with a "wide" 6-12" for my snow range, with the amount of sleet being the true determiner of what eventually happens. Not for the faint of heart. Could be one of the more dynamic and thrilling storms we've ever seen...regardless of how much snow, sleet, or whatever falls. I'm nervous but excited. Definitely looking like some icing going on in my neighborhood.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm with you with the WAA. I just wonder to what extent dynamics can offset the relatively small layer of warmth. Regardless, I think it is primarily sn/pl, with any zr being very minimal. Could be one of those scenarios where the heavier pockets of returns will dictate the p-type. All in all for LAF, I'd probably go with a "wide" 6-12" for my snow range, with the amount of sleet being the true determiner of what eventually happens. Not for the faint of heart. Could be one of the more dynamic and thrilling storms we've ever seen...regardless of how much snow, sleet, or whatever falls. I'm nervous but excited. Change in heart since yesterday, hehe Just had to give you some sh*t! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 precip increasing in southern half of DVN CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1.0" and 1.5" being reported as of noon from observers in Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MSP: 0.17" OMA: 0.57" DSM: 1.11" MKC: 1.58" ICT: 0.62" JLN: 1.51" TUL: 1.54" OKC: 1.22" STL: 1.40" PAH: 1.01" SPI: 1.64" PIA: 1.61" DVN: 1.44" CID: 1.25" DBQ: 1.09" MSN: 0.91" MKE: 1.23" FLD: 0.54" SBM: 0.59" ORD: 1.52" LAF: 1.33" IND: 1.44" FWA: 1.57" DAY: 1.27" CMH: 1.24" GRR: 1.12" DTW: 1.18" CLE: 1.23" YYZ: 1.07" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 fixed and agree. haha is this a new Alek we are seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Definitely looking like some icing going on in my neighborhood.. zr/pl madness. Change in heart since yesterday, hehe Just had to give you some sh*t! I'm normally a pretty calm person, but the weather part of me has certain bi-polar characteristics. Of course I'm still not overly confident on any particulars right now, other than this will be a sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MSP: 0.17" OMA: 0.57" DSM: 1.11" MKC: 1.58" ICT: 0.62" JLN: 1.51" TUL: 1.54" OKC: 1.22" STL: 1.40" PAH: 1.01" SPI: 1.64" PIA: 1.61" DVN: 1.44" CID: 1.25" DBQ: 1.09" MSN: 0.91" MKE: 1.23" FLD: 0.54" SBM: 0.59" ORD: 1.52" LAF: 1.33" IND: 1.44" FWA: 1.57" DAY: 1.27" CMH: 1.24" GRR: 1.12" DTW: 1.18" CLE: 1.23" YYZ: 1.07" good numbers north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 seeing some of these maps at 30/36hr are crazy, I can't wait to see what the radar looks like tomorrow around 6pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 haha is this a new Alek we are seeing? If 1.5-1.6" of QPF is realized with LE, hard to argue against the possibility of a record breaker. If we can get one of those convectively enhanced bands far enough north, i think it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh, the excitement. Charleston, IL will be dismissing students 10 minutes early today. http://twitter.com/#!/1043theparty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 <br />zr/pl madness.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I'm normally a pretty calm person, but the weather part of me has certain bi-polar characteristics. <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> Of course I'm still not overly confident on any particulars right now, other than this will be a sight to see. <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /><br /><br /><br />Have you had a chance to look at the Euro? How does Indy fair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If 1.5-1.6" of QPF is realized with LE, hard to argue against the possibility of a record breaker. If we can get one of those convectively enhanced bands far enough north, i think it happens. my goal with this storm is to get thunder and lightning on video late tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 my goal with this storm is to get thunder and lightning on video late tuesday night. Definitely will be a Top 10 for 2011, hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWIAWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think that the Euro is the way to go with this storm. It's been the most consistent from the beginning, or at least it's been more consistent than the GFS or NAM have been so far. In the meantime there's a nice band of moderate snow setting up shop right on top of me. I could see a couple of inches out of this band if I'm lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My work just announced they were shutting down tomorrow and to keep an eye on the media for closure news Wednesday. Uncommonly sensible of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm still not sure how the Euro can throw so much precip(1.11") all the way back to Des Moines. It also still drops a half inch more in CR than does the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 According to Skilling, ILX will go with a blizzard warning this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can't shake my concern about a warmer layer aloft hanging on. Latest thinking for LAF is an event total of 6-9" snow/sleet and less than .25" zr. I think there could be a fairly significant amount of sleet. Hopefully we get more. I understand where you’re coming from here, there’s a long and depressing history of underdone mid level WAA in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 According to Skilling, ILX will go with a blizzard warning this afternoon. good, they'll need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FWIW from WLFI's Chad Evans And the news release... Winter storm will bring snow and ice Snow expected to arrive Monday night ">Published : Monday, 31 Jan 2011, 10:47 AM EST LAFAYETTE, Ind. (WLFI) - The WLFI viewing area is bracing for what could be the largest storm of the winter season so far. Weather Team 18 meteorologists are carefully watching a weather system as it moves into the Midwest. The storm is expected to hit in two waves. WLFI Chief Meteorologist Chad Evans is calling for the snow to start Monday evening and continue till Wednesday with a small break Tuesday afternoon. The heaviest snow and strongest winds will be overnight Tuesday, Wednesday morning. “Lafayette could see 10 to 12 inches of snow with towns farther north, like Monticello, seeing 14 to 18 inches by the time the storm is done.” Chad said. “The further south you go there is less snow, but a greater chance of sleet and ice.” According to Chad blowing and drifting are expected to be a major factor as well. Winds will generally be between 20 and 30 miles per hour, with gusts up to 45 miles per hour. Drifts to 10 feet deep are possible in rural areas of Newton and Jasper Counties and up to 5 feet in rural Tippecanoe County. As the storm approaches, all of Indiana is preparing. According to a press release, Governor Mitch Daniels has directed the State Department of Homeland Security to coordinate Indiana’s preparations in advance of a winter storm. Homeland Security and Lt. Governor Becky Skillman will report to the governor of the preparations for the various weather scenarios by early afternoon. Check back with WLFI.com for the latest snow totals as well as closings and delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Holy Sh*t URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 138 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ..POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...NORTH AND NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF KOKOMO AND LAFAYETTE LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER SNOWFALL MAY BE HEAVY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TERRE HAUTE... INDIANAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...NEW CASTLE AND MUNCIE...WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AND PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE INCH OR MORE. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL INDIANA MAY RECEIVE LARGE ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONG WINDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY PEOPLE IN CENTRAL INDIANA. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. STAY ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM. INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-010245- /O.UPG.KIND.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KIND.WS.W.0001.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/ CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY- BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE- PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN- JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW- DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO... CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE... SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD... SEYMOUR 138 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW OR ICING...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR POTENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD...LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGES. * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. * TIMING: PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hi res nmm goes ape over southern LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sorry, had to show this. f'n snowhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is this **** really happeneing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's always pretty good when you see this in your zone forecast right? "Snow and isolated thunderstorms." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Holy Sh*t I used the catastrophic word first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Im on antibiotics for bronchitis so Im going to just stay in and rest the next 2 days so i can be all ready for the big show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Things dyin down here at the moment. Long ways to go to get to 5" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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