Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 42hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, IN. Nice hit from IA/MO to DTW. 48hrs: Occluded 1000mb SP near LAF and another in NE. Ohio. Nice hit from DVN to DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 36hrs: 996mb SLP in far SE. Missouri. Nice hit from C. Illinois down into E. Kansas. That's 4 mb weaker than the last run. I think the other models have also backed off a bit pressure-wise when the low crosses far southeast Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 48hrs: Occluded 1000mb SP near LAF and another in NE. Ohio. Nice hit from DVN to DTW. 54hrs: 1000mb SLP along the NY/PA border. Decent hit for ORD. Nice hit from SE. Michigan to YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Northern edge is way underdone.. Nothing too serious though as these microcast/rpm models always fluctuate like crazy.. maybe, but i think a pretty impressive NW/SE gradient looks like a safe bet, especially away from the lake. Euro sounds like it is continuing it's trend back to earth and will be around 1-1.2" for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 <br />54hrs: 1000mb SLP along the NY/PA border.<br /><br />Decent hit for ORD. Nice hit from SE. Michigan to YYZ.<br /><br /><br /><br />Indy still in the ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 maybe, but i think a pretty impressive NW/SE gradient looks like a safe bet, especially away from the lake. Euro sounds like it is continuing it's trend back to earth and will be around 1-1.2" for ORD. Still 1.25-1.50" Raw data in soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z UKMET FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 List of cities/QPF coming soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still 1.25-1.50" Raw data in soon... Are you going to do your usual rundown of the QPF numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still 1.25-1.50" Raw data in soon... impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 OT just saw the CMC nice little closed low over IN/IL this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTZILLINOIS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still 1.25-1.50" Raw data in soon... What are your thoughts for Central Illinois - just south of Bloomington and southwest of Champaign? Looks like from the models there is a wide variation in the predictions - from only 6 inches of snow to more like 12. Ice or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 @ the RPM Also, thunder in the zones for some counties in the LOT FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can't shake my concern about a warmer layer aloft hanging on. Latest thinking for LAF is an event total of 6-9" snow/sleet and less than .25" zr. I think there could be a fairly significant amount of sleet. Hopefully we get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Another tiny baby step the wrong way on euro for here.. Johndee.com forecast graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anyone have the GFS ens. mean for 12z? How does it compare to the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anyone have the GFS ens. mean for 12z? How does it compare to the OP? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Another tiny baby step the wrong way on euro for here.. Johndee.com forecast graphic Still shows a foot+ for you bow 13-20 adding each frame up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 euro gives st louis a foot of snow. 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 31-JAN -2.0 2.9 1024 66 31 0.00 562 543 MON 18Z 31-JAN 0.1 3.4 1022 70 90 0.08 561 543 TUE 00Z 01-FEB 0.3 3.9 1018 89 76 0.12 558 543 TUE 06Z 01-FEB 0.0 2.3 1018 95 47 0.06 557 542 TUE 12Z 01-FEB -3.4 0.0 1019 87 73 0.04 555 540 TUE 18Z 01-FEB -3.9 1.3 1013 83 92 0.11 553 542 WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.0 -0.1 1002 89 78 0.47 545 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB -5.7 -12.2 1003 86 69 0.43 532 530 WED 12Z 02-FEB -7.1 -15.4 1016 80 71 0.08 535 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWIAWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72084.gif I like the 12z GFS Ensemble means much better. It brings the heavier precip closer to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Please include CID in your list of cities, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DPA and ORD are both 1.50"+ on the 12z Euro, I believe a tad wetter than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DPA and ORD are both 1.50"+ on the 12z Euro, I believe a tad wetter than the 0z run. There you go Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can't shake my concern about a warmer layer aloft hanging on. Latest thinking for LAF is an event total of 6-9" snow/sleet and less than .25" zr. I think there could be a fairly significant amount of sleet. Hopefully we get more. I'm with you with the WAA. I just wonder to what extent dynamics can offset the relatively small layer of warmth. Regardless, I think it is primarily sn/pl, with any zr being very minimal. Could be one of those scenarios where the heavier pockets of returns will dictate the p-type. All in all for LAF, I'd probably go with a "wide" 6-12" for my snow range, with the amount of sleet being the true determiner of what eventually happens. Not for the faint of heart. Could be one of the more dynamic and thrilling storms we've ever seen...regardless of how much snow, sleet, or whatever falls. I'm nervous but excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 out to 30hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 There you go Alek stunningly awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 There you go Alek both would make a run at 20" with that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like WAA precip should start here in LAF between 3-5 PM. Let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 both would make a run at 24" with that amount. fixed and agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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