snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:41 PM, Organizing Low said: In 12 hours you'll be asking the same thing for yby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:40 PM, Organizing Low said: lets just hope the RGEM is right....actually, lets pray. Is the RGEM good for Ottawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:46 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Is the RGEM good for Ottawa? its out of range for us, but it surely would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At least with the sfc low positioning, it looks like the GFS is east at 30. Same strength roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's east and a bit north. Maybe occluding later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:47 PM, snowstormcanuck said: At least with the sfc low positioning, it looks like the GFS is east at 30. Same strength roughly. The NAM was a little east, too. It's a nailbiter for those of us on the edge and needing a good SE shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 from IWX this morning: PROPOSED CHG TO HEADLINES WAS TO UPGRADE NW HALF TO BLIZZARD WATCH BEGINNING TUE EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING BUT SHOT DOWN DURING COLLABORATION W/NRN NEIGHBORS. LOT had the balls to issue one with no surronding office collaborating. Surprised IWX didn't use LOT's blizzard watch to justify issuing its own. Seems like they will issue one later today I'd bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the rapid deepening offsets it further east positioning at 30. By 36 it's over the MO bootheel, similar to 6z. Maybe a touch faster. NAM should remain on its own here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:50 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like the rapid deepening offsets it further east positioning at 30. By 36 it's over the MO bootheel, similar to 6z. Maybe a touch faster. NAM should remain on its own here. yeah i think it was just a touch quicker as opposed to much east. Should still be a solid 12-18" solution up this way. by 36 it's also beefier with the 700mb and juicier up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 RGEM precip type looks like the snow colors are off the scale in Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:50 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like the rapid deepening offsets it further east positioning at 30. By 36 it's over the MO bootheel, similar to 6z. Maybe a touch faster. NAM should remain on its own here. NAM is a junk pile with this storm. Ignore it since it is garbage material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here are the CIPS analogs. Like the top 2. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=048&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:51 PM, Hoosier said: RGEM precip type looks like the snow colors are off the scale in Illinois damn that is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z GFS is indeed stronger with the 850 and 700 lows compared to 6z. Good news there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Winter storm watch just issued for most of southern Ontario. EC still maintaining 8-12" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 got alittle more sleep than I wanted therefore having to go through more pages lol like a 12-18" call for here but that could change. going to be a nowcast event for sure and can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:51 PM, baroclinic_instability said: NAM is a junk pile with this storm. Ignore it since it is garbage material. Yeah, RGEM and GFS seem like they'll be similar. It's funny that a hi res model like the NAM is struggling in a situation like this where you'd think it'd be more able to pick up on rapid sfc cyclcogenesis/deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:51 PM, baroclinic_instability said: NAM is a junk pile with this storm. Ignore it since it is garbage material. Not to bother but you feel like throwing out a prediction for LAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:58 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Yeah, RGEM and GFS seem like they'll be similar. It's funny that a hi res model like the NAM is struggling in a situation like this where you'd think it'd be more able to pick up on rapid sfc cyclcogenesis/deepening. RGEM sill more amped, hopefully it's closer to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 spec of 1.5 QPF in 12 hours just south of IKK....850mb temps -10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:58 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Yeah, RGEM and GFS seem like they'll be similar. It's funny that a hi res model like the NAM is struggling in a situation like this where you'd think it'd be more able to pick up on rapid sfc cyclcogenesis/deepening. It is the convective feedback issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 4:00 PM, janetjanet998 said: spec of 1.5 QPF in 12 hours just south of IKK....850mb temps -10 I foresee some civil emergency watch boxes across northern Illinois for highway closures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:58 PM, Thundersnow12 said: got alittle more sleep than I wanted therefore having to go through more pages lol like a 12-18" call for here but that could change. going to be a nowcast event for sure and can't wait. How was shadowing with Gino? His AFD was awesome I thought, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 4:01 PM, baroclinic_instability said: It is the convective feedback issue. http://www.americanw...post__p__402244 Missed that as I was sleeping. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Uncle Ukie at 48 A smidge south of the RGEM, but again, NAM's alone and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 3:59 PM, Hoosier said: <br /><br /><br /> <br /> Not to bother but you feel like throwing out a prediction for LAF?<br /> Does the ice/snow line still look like its splitting us in the middle? Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 4:08 PM, B-Rent said: Does the ice/snow line still look like its splitting us in the middle? Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Going to be close.. Whoever gets all freezing rain is in huge trouble.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 60 hour total precip: Runs are beefing up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sometimes, I have to take a step back and ask if this is really happening. Quite an amazing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 4:09 PM, Mottster said: Going to be close.. Whoever gets all freezing rain is in huge trouble.. I gotta toss the NAM for now especially because of what baro has been saying. Whoever is near the edge of the heavy snow band or in the sleet zone on there should still be getting prepared for significant ice imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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