tavwtby Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS amounts through 00z should allow the schools to be open tomorrow. Except in wimpy towns. I think Waterbury closed for the week already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 4-8 inches of snow tomorrow in all areas south of the pike..all schools will be closed I'm not saying it's right, but I'm referring to the gfs which shows 1-4 across the region (less in the east) at 1:00p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's more for the surface. Yeah the GFS is certainly reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS came pretty far north with the 850 low. More than I would have thought. I dunno about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM won on this one again, first system is now a defined little low. It waivers on the details but it has the general ideas. How does this influences the 2nd system? After reading Tips post earlier I am being cautious with how big the models are going on the wednesday storm. Bigger = more opportunity to underachieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah the GFS is certainly reasonable I knew you'd side with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I knew you'd side with the GFS I'm not... but I'm certainly forecasting sleet for you, me, and BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It gets pellets all the way up to MA/NH border right before it dry slots us. Still a ton of snow for the pike northward in round two but definitely some taint before precip shuts off. Looks like a round of fluffy snow though at the end as the ULL/vortmax tracks through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS came pretty far north with the 850 low. More than I would have thought. I dunno about it. I think most mets will toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS has went way West with storm 2.. 150 miles WNW of NAM at 48hrs. thats why its soo warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow, very big differences with warming on the GFS vs NAM now. This will be incredibly difficult to forecast for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Considering how abysmal the GFS is with temps not surprising it's not picking up on the mesoscale cold like the NAM is That's more for the surface, not as much aloft, where it matters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think most mets will toss it Why, the Euro had sleet for you too... what's the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think most mets will toss it I wouldn't. It's guidance like everything else. We'll see what the euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The NAM has been known to have southward bias issues with SW flow storms outside 42-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dinah won't ya toot,,dinah win't ya tot..dinah won't ya toot your horn..TOOT TOOT!! Blizzy's in the kitchen with Dinah. Blizzy's in the kitchen I knowowow. Blizzy's in the kitchen with Dinah, Strummin on the cold an' snow! Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why, the Euro had sleet for you too... what's the difference? Euro had about an hour or 2 of sleet..and 90- 95% snow and was certainly much colder than this garbage run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 gfs better for nne than the nam qpf wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS came pretty far north with the 850 low. More than I would have thought. I dunno about it. Even with a track that far N...BOS is hanging onto all snow through 54h....thats basically like 90% of the qpf before pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 does waterbury area still get a major ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro had about an hour or 2 of sleet..and 90- 95% snow and was certainly much colder than this garbage run today I think the euro had more which than you were thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah it pings many. I think most important in this run is http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=31&model_init_hh=12&fhour=54¶meter=THCK&level=1000_700&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Notice when compared to the 0z it's blunting the warmest ENE from the last run. Instead of it kissing NJ it's now just under us. Push that east by the same amount over the next 24 hours and it never warms as much as it indicates this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm not... but I'm certainly forecasting sleet for you, me, and BDL what are you throwing out for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what are you throwing out for tomorrow? 4"-8" interior CT for tomorrow, 2"-4" at the coast. Storm total snow 10"-16" far northern CT 6"-10" central CT (OXC/HFD/IJD) 3"-6" coastal CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS moves 12+ back up toward the Canada border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think the euro had more which than you were thinking NAM and Sref's colder so far....I guess we'll have to see what the Ukie and Euro do today. You know the GGEM will be closer to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the GFS thermal proflies make complete sense.. in fact it looks cold based on where the low pressure is.. how often are we that cold with a low in Northern Indiana.. the only thing that is odd about GFS is the storm track.. From NE arkansas at 36hr goes NE to Northern Indiana then due East pretty much to Northern PA by 54.. weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Scheduling nightmare for superintendents and athletic directors in Connecticut. Very tough forecast but I'm thinking our schools will be cancelled for Tuesday and Wednesday. If we get loads of ice, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 4"-8" interior CT for tomorrow, 2"-4" at the coast. Storm total snow 10"-16" far northern CT 6"-10" central CT (OXC/HFD/IJD) 3"-6" coastal CT Very reasonable for on air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just like last week! Yeah, we had a nice little glaze in between. Hoping the NAM is on to something so this is all sleet intead of FZRA. (or, I know this is sacrilege on this board, but I wouldn't mind all rain either.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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