CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is awfully warm at 775mb. paint peeling pingers to Mt. Tolland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maria Molina was positively jiggling through her forecast on Fox. I guess it's going to be a big storm. Somebody pass me some cold water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 think you can crack 200"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 think you can crack 200"? Hey, he has the NAM showing 120"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Bob, Everytime you start a thread the qpf goes up..........lol Bob is our storm fluffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This message sent on behalf of the MPTN Department of Public Safety STATUS OF THE STATE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER - MONITORING Good Morning, LONG DURATION DOUBLE BARREL WINTER STORM EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT… SIGNIFICANT RISK OF ROOF & DECK COLLAPSE IS POSSIBLE… This morning's runs of the GFS and NAM models are forecasting a long duration winter storm Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. The GFS and NAM models are forecasting a double barrel system (somewhat similar to the last storm). The weight of this new snow, sleet and rain added to the tremendous weight of the existing snow load on many flat or shallow sloped roofs and decks may pose a significant risk for roof and building collapses during the storm. The following forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and NAM models: Tuesday: Light snow developing around daybreak and becoming steadier during the day. Some sleet and freezing rain may mix into the state by Tuesday afternoon with 2 - 4 inches of snow expected by the afternoon rush hour. Highs in the 20's. Some icing on power lines and trees is possible in Southern and Central CT. A minor impact is expected for the Tuesday morning rush hour with just some light snow. The impact is gradually expected to increase to moderate by the Tuesday afternoon rush hour. Tuesday Night: Drizzle overnight with an additional inch of snow, sleet and freezing rain possible. Lows in the 20's. A minor impact on overnight travel is expected. Wednesday: Snow, Sleet and Freezing rain becoming moderate to heavy around daybreak and continuing into the late afternoon. The mixed precipitation is expected to change back to snow before ending by Wednesday at midnight. Highs in the upper 20's to low 30's. A considerable risk of roof and deck collapses is forecast during the day on Wednesday and continuing into early Thursday as the snow, sleet and rain add more weight to roofs and decks. Considerable icing may also occur causing significant power outages. The outlook for both Wednesday rush hours is for a moderate impact on travel with mixed precipitation melting on most treated and heavily traveled highways, but sticking to the less traveled and treated secondary roads. Storm total snowfall is forecast to range from 3 - 5 inches along the coast up to 14 inches in Northern CT. Approximately 1 inch of sleet and 1/2 - 3/4 inch of icing is also expected during the storm. Forecast confidence is good at this time. However the rain/snow line is going to be fairly narrow (only 150 miles between all rain and all snow) across Southern New England during the storm. If the track of the storm moves 50 miles north or south then we can expect the snowfall amounts and icing to shift north or south with the storm track. The Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to monitor this approaching storm and will issue another update at 2:00 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 still not bad for VT. Great ratios and decent snow growth...temps 10-15. easily a foot of fluff yeah its solid just hoping to pick up 6 inches here. thats a windfall up here this year. no complaints, picked up a good bit of snow over the weekend -12F here overnight, snowpack looks luxurious. ............07-08 was always going to play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This message sent on behalf of the MPTN Department of Public Safety Steve, what's MPTN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is awfully warm at 775mb. paint peeling pingers to Mt. Tolland! 0.9 at 750mb for IJD at the height, would definitely be sleet for a few hours. Problem is it comes right at the height of the storm and would waste a good bit of QPF. Also a warm layer at 850 for the second half of tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Steve, what's MPTN? Money Pit Totals Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This message sent on behalf of the MPTN Department of Public Safety STATUS OF THE STATE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER - MONITORING Good Morning, LONG DURATION DOUBLE BARREL WINTER STORM EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT… SIGNIFICANT RISK OF ROOF & DECK COLLAPSE IS POSSIBLE… This morning's runs of the GFS and NAM models are forecasting a long duration winter storm Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. The GFS and NAM models are forecasting a double barrel system (somewhat similar to the last storm). The weight of this new snow, sleet and rain added to the tremendous weight of the existing snow load on many flat or shallow sloped roofs and decks may pose a significant risk for roof and building collapses during the storm. The following forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and NAM models: Tuesday: Light snow developing around daybreak and becoming steadier during the day. Some sleet and freezing rain may mix into the state by Tuesday afternoon with 2 - 4 inches of snow expected by the afternoon rush hour. Highs in the 20's. Some icing on power lines and trees is possible in Southern and Central CT. A minor impact is expected for the Tuesday morning rush hour with just some light snow. The impact is gradually expected to increase to moderate by the Tuesday afternoon rush hour. Tuesday Night: Drizzle overnight with an additional inch of snow, sleet and freezing rain possible. Lows in the 20's. A minor impact on overnight travel is expected. Wednesday: Snow, Sleet and Freezing rain becoming moderate to heavy around daybreak and continuing into the late afternoon. The mixed precipitation is expected to change back to snow before ending by Wednesday at midnight. Highs in the upper 20's to low 30's. A considerable risk of roof and deck collapses is forecast during the day on Wednesday and continuing into early Thursday as the snow, sleet and rain add more weight to roofs and decks. Considerable icing may also occur causing significant power outages. The outlook for both Wednesday rush hours is for a moderate impact on travel with mixed precipitation melting on most treated and heavily traveled highways, but sticking to the less traveled and treated secondary roads. Storm total snowfall is forecast to range from 3 - 5 inches along the coast up to 14 inches in Northern CT. Approximately 1 inch of sleet and 1/2 - 3/4 inch of icing is also expected during the storm. Forecast confidence is good at this time. However the rain/snow line is going to be fairly narrow (only 150 miles between all rain and all snow) across Southern New England during the storm. If the track of the storm moves 50 miles north or south then we can expect the snowfall amounts and icing to shift north or south with the storm track. The Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to monitor this approaching storm and will issue another update at 2:00 PM. An the reason why we had the roof talk yesterday, People should heed the warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is awfully warm at 775mb. paint peeling pingers to Mt. Tolland! Just don't want to see a situation where the northern valley stays all snow but has horrific snow growth due to warm mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Money Pit Totals Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm not totally ready yet to rule out a few hours of pockmarks on the face..but I think you would agree it's much less certain than it was when we talked about this on Saturday..and i was adament then that it would stay south It's beyond eerie just how often and how right Blizzy has been for every stinkin' storm. By far the most consistent trend this winter- Blizzy's defiant faith in big snows overpowering the models. Gotta give him serious credit. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Walking the line here once again. NAM clown maps have me around 12-15". Pretty sharp cutoffs to the south of us, would like to see 25 mile shift south for the 1' to varify, still think the qpf is overdone tho, work in cranston might get half of what I see in Seekonk, which is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Steve, what's MPTN? Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation. Otherwise known for their primary asset, Foxwoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 if you believe the Euro, GFS, Nam, SREFs, etc, then I would say they are quite good. The question is ratios. Dendrite/Brian and Scott, think we have a shot at deformation snows which are high ratio. 12+ is looking good at this point....but do we get a shot at 24? That is the question...with deformation someone up this way has a good shot at 2ft. thanks. I like where we are for this one. 2' would be great, but anything over 1' is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's beyond eerie just how often and how right Blizzy has been for every stinkin' storm. By far the most consistent trend this winter- Blizzy's defiant faith in big snows overpowering the models. Gotta give him serious credit. Vim Toot! He, he blew Saturday's clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's beyond eerie just how often and how right Blizzy has been for every stinkin' storm. By far the most consistent trend this winter- Blizzy's defiant faith in big snows overpowering the models. Gotta give him serious credit. Vim Toot! That's gonna set some folks off......LOL Personally, I agree.......this is the Revenge of the Weenie Year, and Kev is golden.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is awfully warm at 775mb. paint peeling pingers to Mt. Tolland! Yeah I'm going with the 1000-700 as the snow/non snow line. The soundings are pretty warm. Still going to need some work to make this a mostly snow from the MA/RI/CT borders south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 He, he blew Saturday's clipper... I missed that one then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 thanks. I like where we are for this one. 2' would be great, but anything over 1' is gravy. over under is 12 inches for this storm. If it exceeds 12" then I'm satisfied with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah I'm going with the 1000-700 as the snow/non snow line. The soundings are pretty warm. Still going to need some work to make this a mostly snow from the MA/RI/CT borders south. Are you still thinking the low shoots off the coast of New Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 over under is 12 inches for this storm. If it exceeds 12" then I'm satisfied with the storm. I'm hopeful for more than a foot Especially if we can muster any t ype of ratios from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Are you still thinking the low shoots off the coast of New Jersey? Yes, would want to see the solution be about 30-50 miles south of the 12z. Looks like it comes off the coast about midway or just under midway up the Jersey Shore...we want that south for your area and mine. Just off the SE shore of Jersey would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 over under is 12 inches for this storm. If it exceeds 12" then I'm satisfied with the storm. Yup, that's a smart approach. Don't be seduced by the talk of 15-20". Could happen but would be more the exception than the rule I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Should it stay frozen in PVD metro or will rain ease my icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Steve, what's MPTN? Nutmeg answered it, my employer, just got this. here at work setting up for expected closure Wed, we are closed Today and Tuesday anyway. Lots of nervous EM's with the ice threat down here, had a conference call. Not good, hoping this trends 50 miles south for the sake of people down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's beyond eerie just how often and how right Blizzy has been for every stinkin' storm. By far the most consistent trend this winter- Blizzy's defiant faith in big snows overpowering the models. Gotta give him serious credit. Vim Toot! Dinah won't ya toot,,dinah win't ya tot..dinah won't ya toot your horn..TOOT TOOT!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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